Prognostic accuracy of lactate and procalcitonin in addition to national early warning score in patients with suspected sepsis – A cross-sectional study in a tertiary care center

Abstract

Background: Sepsis, a major global health concern, leads to millions of deaths annually, hence the need for early and reliable prognostic tools to assess patient risk and guide clinical decision making becomes crucial. This cross-sectional study evaluated the prognostic accuracy of integrating blood lactate and serum procalcitonin (PCT) levels with the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) for predicting mortality in sepsis patients. The objective was to assess whether this lactate and procalcitonin integrated with NEWS score (LP NEWS) could serve as a more effective early prognostic tool compared to established severity scores. Methods: Spanning 12 months, the study enrolled adult patients meeting the criteria of sepsis in the ICU and medicine ward of a tertiary care hospital in North India. Data collection included demographics, clinical characteristics, and blood samples for lactate and PCT at admission. NEWS, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), and LP-NEWS scores were calculated with treatment administered per Surviving Sepsis-3 guidelines. Results: The research included 200 participants, uncovering significant correlations between blood lactate, PCT levels, and mortality. Survivors had a mean lactate of 2.12 ± 0.70 and PCT of 11.27 ± 11.75, while nonsurvivors had 3.30 ± 1.17 and 30 ± 18.48, respectively (P < 0.001). LP-NEWS significantly differentiated survivors from nonsurvivors (8.23 ± 2.02 vs. 14.12 ± 2.23), with a cutoff of 11 showing 96.9% sensitivity and 88.5% specificity for predicting mortality. LP-NEWS had the highest odds ratio = 3.12, P < 0.001, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve value (0.966), outperforming APACHE II and SOFA scores. Conclusion: The LP-NEWS score which integrates blood lactate and serum PCT levels could serve as an effective standalone bedside score, particularly in the initial risk stratification of sepsis.