Tumor mutation burden (TMB) is associated with immune infiltration, while its underlying mechanism in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains unclear. A long noncoding RNA (lncRNA)-related competitive endogenous RNA (ceRNA) network can regulate various tumor behaviors, and research about its correlation with TMB and immune infiltration is warranted. Data were downloaded from TCGA and ArrayExpress databases. Cox analysis and machine learning algorithms were employed to establish a lncRNA-based prognostic model for HCC. We then developed a nomogram model to predict overall survival and odds of death for HCC patients. The association of this prognostic model with TMB and immune infiltration was also analyzed. In addition, a ceRNA network was constructed by using DIANA-LncBasev2 and the starBase database and verified by luciferase reporter and colocalization analysis. Multiplex immunofluorescence was applied to determine the correlation between ULBP1 and PD-L1. An eight-lncRNA (SLC25A30-AS1, HPN-AS1, LINC00607, USP2-AS1, HCG20, LINC00638, MKLN1-AS and LINC00652) prognostic score model was constructed for HCC, which was highly associated with TMB and immune infiltration. Next, we constructed a ceRNA network, LINC00638/miR-4732-3p/ULBP1, that may be responsible for NK cell infiltration in HCC with high TMB. However, patients with high ULBP1 possessed a poorer prognosis. Using multiplex immunofluorescence, we found a significant correlation between ULBP1 and PD-L1 in HCC, and patients with high ULBP1 and PD-L1 had the worst prognosis. In brief, the eight-lncRNA model is a reliable tool to predict the prognosis of HCC patients. The LINC00638/miR-4732-3p/ULBP1 axis may regulate immune escape via PD-L1 in HCC with high TMB.