Prognostic Biomarkers of Mortality in Older Patients Without Cancer in Home Healthcare

Abstract

Introduction The number of patients without cancer who receive home healthcare is increasing; however, prognostic prediction is challenging among them. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic value of generic biomarkers for mortality in patients without cancer who receive home healthcare. Materials and methods The multicenter retrospective cohort study included 114 older patients without cancer, of which 12 (10.5%) died during the study period. The median (interquartile range (IQR)) of the study observation period was 181 (49-293) days. Generic biomarkers included hemoglobin (Hb), albumin (Alb), C-reactive protein (CRP), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and alanine aminotransferase (ALT). A multivariate-adjusted Cox proportional hazard model on all-cause mortality was used to calculate hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) for each biomarker. The cut-off values of each biomarker were calculated by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. The performance of cut-off values was evaluated by time-dependent area under the curves (AUCs). Results The median (IQR) of AST was 13 (10-21) U/L. The biomarkers significantly predictive of mortality were Hb (fully adjusted HR: 0.41; 95% Cl: 0.25 - 0.70), Alb (HR: 0.41; 95% Cl: 0.02 - 0.69), and AST (HR: 1.09; 95% Cl: 1.00 - 1.18), along with male sex (HR: 4.07; 95% Cl: 1.15 - 14.35). The AUC of a cut-off value of AST (> 31 U/L) at 360 days was 0.72 (95% CI 0.71 - 0.72; p < 0.01), which outperformed the AUCs for Hb and Alb. Conclusion AST, in addition to Hb and Alb, may be useful for predicting the prognosis of older patients without cancer, who had a normal-to-mild increased level of AST, in home healthcare settings. Larger-sample and longer follow-up studies will be warranted.