Prognostic significance of carbohydrate antigen 125 in acute heart failure: a prospective comparative study with N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide

Abstract

Background In acute heart failure (AHF), elevated carbohydrate antigen 125 (CA125) and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NTproBNP) have shown to correlate with adverse events. We sought to quantify their prognostic usefulness in predicting the 6-month combined endpoint of death/heart failure readmission. Methods The study includes 352 patients admitted for AHF. The primary endpoint was 6-month combined endpoint of death/AHF rehospitalization. CA125 and NTproBNP were dichotomized according to the best cut-offs to predict 6-month primary endpoint. By multivariate Cox regression analysis, the independent association of CA125 and NTproBNP with the primary endpoint was assessed, and their incremental prognostic utility evaluated by net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) index. Results A total of 47 (13.4%) deaths and 113 (32.1%) AHF rehospitalizations were identified at 6-month follow-up. The subjects with CA125 ≥ 39.7 U/ml and NTproBNP ≥ 3900 pg/ml had significantly higher cumulative event rates (56.1% vs. 33.3% and 53.3% vs. 33.8%, both P < 0.001). Elevated CA125 (HR 1.93; 95%CI [1.32–2.83]; P = 0.001) was associated with higher HR than NTproBNP ≥ 3900 pg/ml (HR 1.71; 95%CI [1.19–2.48]; P = 0.004) after adjusting for established risk factors. Elevated CA125 still independently predicted adverse events when both CA125 and NTproBNP were entered together in the same multivariate model. Furthermore, risk reclassification analyses demonstrated significant improvements in NRI of 22.3% (P = 0.014) and IDI of 2.7% (P = 0.012) when adding CA125 to the base model + NTproBNP. Conclusions Elevated CA125 and NTproBNP predicted adverse outcomes in AHF patients. CA125 added prognostic value to NTproBNP, and thus, their combination conferred greater predictive capacity.