Vertical mandibular invasion of lower gingival squamous cell carcinoma (LGSCC) determines the method of resection, which significantly affects the patient's quality of life. Therefore, in mandibular invasion by LGSCC, it is extremely important to monitor progression, specifically whether invasion is limited to the cortical bone or has progressed to the bone marrow. This retrospective study aimed to identify the diagnostic and predictive parameters for mandibular invasion, particularly vertical invasion, to enable appropriate selection of the method of mandibular resection. Of the patients who underwent surgery for LGSCC between 2009 and 2017, 64 were eligible for participation in the study based on tissue microarrays (TMA) from surgical specimens. This study analyzed morphological features using computed tomography (CT), and metabolic characteristics using maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax), peak value of SUV (SUVpeak), metabolic tumor volume (MTV), and total lesion glycolysis (TLG). Moreover, immunohistochemical analysis of proteins, including parathyroid hormone-related protein (PTHrP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), E-cadherin, and programmed cell death-1 ligand 1 (PD-L1), was performed. Statistical analysis was performed using univariate logistic regression analysis with the forward selection method. The present study showed that MTV (≥2.9 cm 3 ) was an independent diagnostic and predictive factor for positivity of mandibular invasion. Additionally, TLG (≥53.9 bw/cm 3 ) was an independent diagnostic and predictive factor for progression to bone marrow invasion. This study demonstrated that in addition to morphological imaging by CT, the volume-based parameters of MTV and TLG on fluorine-18 fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography were important for predicting pathological mandibular invasion in patients with LGSCC. A more accurate preoperative diagnosis of vertical mandibular invasion would enable the selection of appropriate surgical procedure for mandibular resection. Abbreviations: 18 F-FDG PET = fluorine-18 fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography, CT = computed tomography, H-E = hematoxylin and eosin, IHC = immunohistochemistry, IL-1 = interleukin-1, INF = infiltration factor, LGSCC = lower gingival squamous cell carcinoma, MR = magnetic resonance, MTV = metabolic tumor volume, NPV = negative predictive value, OSCC = oral squamous cell carcinoma, PD-L1 = programmed cell death-1 ligand 1, PET = positron emission tomography, PPV = positive predictive value, PTHrP = parathyroid hormone-related protein, QOL = quality of life, ROC = receiver operating characteristic, ROI = region of interest, SUV = standardized uptake value, SUVmax = maximum value of SUV, SUVpeak = peak value of SUV, TAM = tumor-associated macrophages, TIA = tumor infiltrating lymphocytes, TLG = total lesion glycolysis, TMA = tissue microarray, TME = tumor microenvironment, TNF-α = Tumour necrosis factor-α, VIF = variance inflation factor, VOI = volume of interest.