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Background Immune therapy, especially involving PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors, has shown promise as a therapeutic option for cholangiocarcinoma. However, limited studies have evaluated survival outcomes in cholangiocarcinoma patients treated with immune therapy. This study aims to develop a predictive model to evaluate the survival benefits of immune therapy in patients with cholangiocarcinoma. Methods This retrospective analysis included 120 cholangiocarcinoma patients from Shulan (Hangzhou) Hospital. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were conducted to identify factors associated with survival following immune therapy. A predictive model was constructed and validated using calibration curves (CC), decision curve analysis (DCA), concordance index (C-index), and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results Cox regression analysis identified several factors as potential predictors of survival post-immune therapy in cholangiocarcinoma: treatment cycle (<6 vs ≥ 6 months, 95% CI: 0.119-0.586, P = 0.001), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR <3.08 vs ≥ 3.08, 95% CI: 1.864-9.624, P = 0.001), carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA <4.13 vs ≥ 4.13, 95% CI: 1.175-5.321, P = 0.017), and presence of bone metastasis (95% CI: 1.306-6.848, P = 0.010). The nomogram model achieved good predictive accuracy with a C-index of 0.811. CC indicated strong concordance between the predicted and observed outcomes. Multi-timepoint ROC curves at 1, 2, and 3 years validated the model’s performance (1-year AUC: 0.906, 2-year AUC: 0.832, 3-year AUC: 0.822). The multi-timepoint DCA curves also demonstrated a higher net benefit compared to extreme curves. Conclusion The nomogram model, incorporating key risk factors for cholangiocarcinoma patients post-immune therapy, demonstrates robust predictive accuracy for survival outcomes, offering the potential for improved clinical decision-making.
Background Immune therapy, especially involving PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors, has shown promise as a therapeutic option for cholangiocarcinoma. However, limited studies have evaluated survival outcomes in cholangiocarcinoma patients treated with immune therapy. This study aims to develop a predictive model to evaluate the survival benefits of immune therapy in patients with cholangiocarcinoma. Methods This retrospective analysis included 120 cholangiocarcinoma patients from Shulan (Hangzhou) Hospital. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were conducted to identify factors associated with survival following immune therapy. A predictive model was constructed and validated using calibration curves (CC), decision curve analysis (DCA), concordance index (C-index), and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results Cox regression analysis identified several factors as potential predictors of survival post-immune therapy in cholangiocarcinoma: treatment cycle (<6 vs ≥ 6 months, 95% CI: 0.119-0.586, P = 0.001), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR <3.08 vs ≥ 3.08, 95% CI: 1.864-9.624, P = 0.001), carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA <4.13 vs ≥ 4.13, 95% CI: 1.175-5.321, P = 0.017), and presence of bone metastasis (95% CI: 1.306-6.848, P = 0.010). The nomogram model achieved good predictive accuracy with a C-index of 0.811. CC indicated strong concordance between the predicted and observed outcomes. Multi-timepoint ROC curves at 1, 2, and 3 years validated the model’s performance (1-year AUC: 0.906, 2-year AUC: 0.832, 3-year AUC: 0.822). The multi-timepoint DCA curves also demonstrated a higher net benefit compared to extreme curves. Conclusion The nomogram model, incorporating key risk factors for cholangiocarcinoma patients post-immune therapy, demonstrates robust predictive accuracy for survival outcomes, offering the potential for improved clinical decision-making.
Background The clinical significance of immuno-inflammatory indicators and the underlying biological basis in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) who receive chemoradiotherapy (CRT) combined with immunotherapy remains unclear. This study aims to evaluate the prognostic value of immuno-inflammatory biomarkers, develop a prognostic model, and explore the underlying mechanisms. Methods This study included 212 ESCC patients who received CRT and anti-PD-1 immunotherapy. Association between progression-free survival (PFS) and immuno-inflammatory biomarkers, including absolute lymphocyte count (ALC), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), lymphocyte-monocyte ratio was analyzed. A nomogram was built based on the independent prognostic factors identified using multivariable Cox regression model. Pre-treatment tumor samples from 47 patients were collected for RNA sequencing to investigate the immune-related tumor microenvironment. Results Patients experienced significant changes in immuno-inflammatory biomarkers during CRT, which gradually recovered after radiotherapy. Body mass index < 18.5 (HR, 1.85; P = 0.032), N3 stage (HR, 2.41; P = 0.002), high pre-CRT PLR (HR, 1.53; P = 0.037), low ALC nadir (HR, 1.84; P = 0.006), and high post-CRT NLR (HR, 2.12; P = 0.002) were independent prognostic factors for unfavorable PFS, which were incorporated into a nomogram with a concordance index of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.67–0.72). High-risk patients stratified by the nomogram had worse survival and were associated with lower levels of leukocyte and T cell activation, proliferation, and migration and less intratumoral immune cell infiltration. Conclusions Pre-CRT PLR, ALC nadir during CRT, and post-CRT NLR were significantly associated with PFS in patients with ESCC receiving CRT and immunotherapy. A nomogram model with good prognostic ability was developed. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-024-13298-z.
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