Prognostic significance of postoperative serological incomplete conversion of AFP and PIVKA-II after hepatic resection for hepatocellular carcinoma: a multicenter analysis of 1755 patients

Abstract

Background The value of serum biomarkers, particularly alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist-II (PIVKA-II), gains increasing attention in prognostic evaluation and recurrence monitoring for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study investigated the implications of serological incomplete conversion (SIC) of these 2 biomarkers as prognostic indicators for long-term outcomes after HCC resection. Methods A multicenter observational study was conducted on a cohort of HCC patients presenting with AFP (>20 ng/mL) or PIVKA-II (>40 mAU/mL) positivity who underwent curative-intent resection. Based on their postoperative AFP and PIVKA-II levels at first postoperative follow-up (4~8 weeks after surgery), these patients were stratified into the serological incomplete conversion (SIC) and serological complete conversion (SCC) groups. The study endpoints were recurrence and overall survival (OS). Results Among 1755 patients, 379 and 1376 were categorized as having SIC and SCC, respectively. The SIC group exhibited 1- and 5-year OS rates of 67.5% and 26.3%, with the corresponding recurrence rates of 53.2% and 79.0%, respectively; while the SCC group displayed 1- and 5-year OS rates of 95.8% and 62.5%, with the corresponding recurrence rates of 16.8% and 48.8%, respectively (both P < .001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis demonstrated that postoperative SIC was an independent risk factor for both increased recurrence (HR: 2.40, 95% CI, 2.04-2.81, P < .001) and decreased OS (HR: 2.69, 95% CI, 2.24-3.24, P < .001). Conclusion The results emphasize that postoperative incomplete conversion of either AFP or PIVKA-II is a significant prognostic marker, indicating a higher risk for adverse oncologic outcomes following HCC resection. This revelation has crucial implications for refining postoperative adjuvant therapy and surveillance strategies for HCC patients.