Prognostic Value of Platelet-to-Monocyte Ratio for Mortality in HBV-Related Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

Abstract

Purpose Hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is a critical condition associated with unfavorable survival rates. Recent studies have indicated that the platelet-to-monocyte ratio (PMR) is considered an effective prognostic marker in several diseases. However, there has been no study to evaluate the prognostic value of PMR in HBV-ACLF patients. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the association between PMR and 28-day survival in these patients. Methods In this retrospective study, data, including clinical and laboratory parameters, were collected for 184 HBV-ACLF patients. Disease severity was assessed using the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify predictors influencing 28-day survival. Receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC) analyses were performed to assess the predictive abilities of the identified predictors. Results During the 28-day follow-up period, 56 (30.4%) HBV-ACLF patients died. PMR was significantly lower in non-survivors than in survivors ( P <0.001). Logistic regression demonstrated that PMR (Odds ratio, 0.983; 95% Confidence interval, 0.976–0.990; P =0.001) and MELD score (Odds ratio, 1.317; 95% Confidence interval, 1.200–1.446; P <0.001) were independent risk factors for mortality in HBV-ACLF patients. The area under ROC curve for PMR was 0.760 (sensitivity=0.840, specificity=0.620, P =0.001) at a cut-off value of 140.6, and the area under ROC curve for MELD score was 0.819 (sensitivity=0.700, specificity=0.860, P =0.001) at a cut-off value of 23.1. PMR and MELD score exhibited similar predictive performances (Z=1.229; P =0.219). Furthermore, the combined use of PMR and MELD score further increased the area under the ROC curve to 0.858, which more accurate prognosis prediction than use of either factor alone (both P < 0.05). Conclusion The PMR could serve as a reliable tool for predicting mortality in HBV-ACLF patients. Additionally, combining the PMR with the MELD score could improve prognostic accuracy for predicting 28-day mortality in these patients. However, further and larger studies are needed to confirm our findings.