BACKGROUND:
The overall survival (OS) of squamous cell carcinoma of the mobile tongue remains dismal. This research aimed to develop a predictive nomogram model capable of forecasting the impact of various factors on the OS of mobile tongue squamous cell carcinoma (MTSCC) in middle-aged and older patients.
METHODS:
The study population consisted of patients diagnosed with MTSCC between 2010 and 2015. These individuals were identified through the utilization of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Following this, at random, these people were separated into two sets: a training set and a validation set. Risk factors for OS in the training set were identified using univariate and multivariate COX regression analyses. Prognostic nomograms for middle-aged and older patients with MTSCC were then created using independent risk factors and validated using the area under the ROC curve, calibration curves, and DCA curves. Finally, a comparison was made between the nomogram and TNM staging in order to assess their respective predictive capabilities.
Results:
In total, 2354 eligible patients were enrolled; of these, 707 were designated for validation, and 1647 were assigned to the training set. OS-independent prognostic factors included age, race, gender, tumor pathology grading, T-stage, N-stage, whether the primary site was operated on or not, and radiotherapy (all P < 0.05). The AUC values of the OS prognostic nomograms, which were built utilizing independent prognostic parameters, are as follows: The training set yielded an AUC of 0.793, 0.750, and 0.749 for the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year OS, respectively. The calibration curves of the nomograms exhibited a substantial level of concordance between the projected and observed rates of survival. DCA curve concluded that prognostic net benefit was greater for nomograms featuring broad high-risk thresholds compared to TNM.
CONCLUSION:
This model has better predictive ability than AJCC staging and it can help oral and maxillofacial surgeons to predict the prognosis of tongue squamous carcinoma.