Background
Two recent randomized, placebo-controlled phase II/III trials (clinicaltrials.gov: NCT01110720, NCT01049399) of davunetide and tideglusib in progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP) generated prospective, 1-year longitudinal datasets of high-resolution T1-weighted 3D MRI.
Objectives
Develop a quantitative MRI disease progression measurement for clinical trials.
Methods
We performed a fully automated quantitative MRI analysis employing atlas-based volumetry and provide sample size calculations based on data collected in N=99 PSP patients, assigned to placebo in these trials. Based on individual volumes of N=44 brain compartments and structures at baseline and 52 weeks follow-up, means and standard deviations of annualized percentage volume changes were used to estimate standardized effect sizes and the required sample sizes per group for future two-armed, placebo-controlled therapeutic trials.
Results
The highest standardized effect sizes were found for midbrain, frontal lobes, and third ventricle. Using the annualized percentage volume change of these structures to detect a 50% change in the 1-year progression (80% power, significance level 5%) required lower numbers of patients per group [third ventricle, N=32; midbrain, N=37; frontal lobe, N= 43] than the best clinical scale (PSP rating scale total score, N=58). A combination of volume changes in these three structures reduced the number of required patients to only N=20 and correlated best with the progression in the clinical scales.
Conclusions
We propose the 1-year change in the volumes of third ventricle, midbrain, and frontal lobe as combined imaging read-out for clinical trials in PSP, requiring the least number of patients for detecting efficacy to reduce brain atrophy.