Objectives: To determine long-term outcomes and predictors of progression of indeterminate hepatocellular observation (LR-3) of <2 cm to higher categories in high-risk patients based on serial gadoxetic acid-enhanced MRI (Gd-EOB-MRI) examinations.
Methods: A retrospective review was conducted on 125 patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related cirrhosis who underwent Gd-EOB-MRI examinations at baseline and during follow-up. A total of 149 untreated LR-3 observations (<2 cm) were included in the study. The Cox proportional hazards model was employed to perform a multivariate analysis of the risk factors for predictive progression of hepatocellular observations (upgraded to LR-4 or LR-5), which included patient demographics and LI-RADS imaging features. Additionally, the Kaplan–Meier method was utilized to assess the overall cumulative incidence curve for progression. Finally, the log-rank test was used to compare the cumulative incidence curves between cases with and without significant predictive risk factors.
Results: During a median follow-up interval of 18.3 months, the overall cumulative incidence of progression for LR-3 observations was 41.6%. The specific progression rates were 1.3%, 9.5%, 17.3%, and 37.3% at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months, respectively. The multivariate analysis revealed three significant independent predictors of progression: non-rim arterial phase hyperenhancement (APHE) (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.19, 95% CI = 1.27–3.79; P = 0.005), subthreshold growth (HR = 2.78, 95% CI = 1.48–5.23; P = 0.001), and mild-moderate T2 hyperintensity (HR = 5.25, 95% CI = 2.05–13.43; P < 0.001). LR-3 observations exhibiting non-rim APHE or mild-moderate T2 hyperintensity demonstrated a significantly higher cumulative risk of progression and a shorter median follow-up time to upgrade compared to those without these features (53.3% vs. 33.7%, 14.7 months vs. 18.9 months, both P <0.001; 50.0% vs. 28.8%, 15.1 months vs. 26.5 months, both P <0.001, respectively).
Conclusions: In cases of LR-3 observations (<2 cm), the presence of non-rim APHE, subthreshold growth, and mild-to-moderate T2 hyperintensities were found to be associated with a significantly higher risk of progression. LR-3 observations exhibiting non-rim APHE or mild-to-moderate T2 hyperintensity were specifically associated with a higher cumulative risk of progression and a shorter median follow-up time to upgrade.