Projeções de Vazão Afluente à Lagoa Mangueira com Base em Cenários de Mudanças Climáticas

Tejadas, Bruno Espinosa; Bravo, Juan Martín; Sanagiotto, Daniela Guzzon; Tassi, Rutinéia; Marques, David da Motta

doi:10.1590/0102-778631320150139

Cited by 11 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…The presence of trends also was identified in the Juquiá watershed, São Paulo, by Teixeira et al (2020), both increase and decrease in monthly precipitation and minimum and maximum monthly streamflow, as well as growth tendency in minimum monthly streamflow series. In Rio Grande do Sul, changes in the average annual river flow were identified by Tejadas et al (2016), with an increase of 2.86% and 2.48% in scenarios A2 (the most pessimistic) and B2 (intermediate scenario) considering a near horizon, and 16.94% and 11.83% in the long term.…”

Section: Extreme Value Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of hydrological extremes in the Guaíba hydrographic region: an application of extreme values theory

Vieira

Osório

Quevedo

2022

Rev. Bras. Ciênc. Ambient.

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Knowing the behavior of extreme hydrological phenomena is essential so that the impacts resulting from these natural events are minimized. Rio Grande do Sul has frequently been hit by extreme events such as droughts and floods, and these events are associated with several consequences, such as energy or water rationing, urban flooding and damage to hydraulic structures. In this context, the analysis of historical series extremes of hydrometeorological data through the Extreme Values Theory (EVT) is one of the ways to determine the variability due to climate change, enabling the modeling of extreme events. EVT makes it possible to know the frequency with which extreme events occur, allowing extrapolation beyond the historical series, generating occurrence probabilities of such an event. Therefore, the purpose of this work was to apply the Extreme Values Theory in hydrological the data historical series of flow and precipitation in the Guaíba hydrographic region and to carry out occurrence probabilities of intense events return, helping in the planning of the hydrographic watersheds that are in this region, as well as to verify whether the EVT has return periods similar to the climate projections of CMIP5 models. The results demonstrate that the values of flow and precipitation, in the historical series used, have already presented changes regarding the volume and frequency of extreme events occurrence and, in the future, for some stations, values can be expected both above and below the extremes already observed in the historical series.

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Section: Extreme Value Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of hydrological extremes in the Guaíba hydrographic region: an application of extreme values theory

Vieira

Osório

Quevedo

2022

Rev. Bras. Ciênc. Ambient.

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“…In Rio Grande do Sul, a study by Tejadas et al (2016) identified changes in the average annual river flow with an increase of 2.86% and 2.48% in scenarios A2 (the most pessimistic) and B2 (intermediate scenario) considering a near horizon, and 16.94% and 11.83% considering a long term.…”

Section: Trend Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of flows in the Guaíba Hydrographic Region: Current variability and Trends due to Climate Change

Vieira

Quevedo²,

Adam³

et al. 2021

Rev. Bras. Geog. Fis.

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Climate change has become a worldwide theme discussed in the last decades, mainly about the various expected impacts. Some research claims that some of these impacts are already occurring, such as the change in the rainfall regime, causing more frequent droughts and floods, an increase in sea levels, among others. Based on this, monitoring water resources to analyze possible changes in hydrological behavior is fundamental for the proper planning and management of these resources. Therefore, the objective of this research was to evaluate the flow behavior in the Guaíba hydrographic region over a period of 33 years and disturb the series based on expected trends due to climate changes to assess how the flo ws can be affected. For this purpose, data on maximum m onthly flows for the period from 1985 to 2017 were obtained from ten fluviometric stations in the Guaíba hydrographic region, southern Brazil. These data were evaluated using descriptive statistics and permanence curves. Afterwards, the series were disturb ed and evaluated again. Through the observation of the historical behavior of the flow it was noticed that many stations indicate changes in the temporal variation, with a tendency to increase the number of great magnitude flows, but, on the other hand, it is verified the temporal increase of minimum flows. The projected trends for the region indicate an increase in the volume of precipitation and in the flow of the rivers, however they tend to be more concentrated in short periods of time.

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“…As projeções geradas pelo conjunto de MCG são utilizadas para alimentar os modelos hidrológicos de forma a serem calculadas variáveis de interesse a lagos, como as vazões e cargas afluentes. Recentes estudos na América do Sul (e.g., TASSI et al, 2013;BRAVO et al, 2014;SORRIBAS et al, 2016;TEJADAS et al, 2016;BRÊDA et al, 2020) têm utilizado projeções de variáveis climáticas geradas por modelos climáticos globais como dados de entrada a modelos hidrológicos para verificar o impacto nas principais variáveis hidrológicas.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

“…Tejadas et al (2016) e brevemente apresentada a seguir. Ressaltamos que, no presente trabalho, são utilizados dados do AR5, enquantoTejadas et al (2016) se apoiaram em dados do AR4. nutriente.…”

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Projeções de vazão para avaliação de estimativa de carga de nutrientes afluentes à lagoa Mangueira, Rio Grande do Sul, em cenários de mudanças climáticas do Quinto Relatório de Avaliação das Mudanças Climáticas

Felizzola

Fernandes

Bravo

et al. 2022

Eng. Sanit. Ambient.

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RESUMO As mudanças climáticas podem causar alterações drásticas nos ecossistemas lacustres especialmente em razão da elevação da temperatura e das alterações na precipitação, provocando, entre outros fatores, aumento no aporte de nutrientes e, consequentemente, eutrofização. Este trabalho apresenta a estimativa de projeções de vazão e carga de nutrientes (NO3−, PO4–3) afluentes à lagoa Mangueira — grande lagoa rasa subtropical localizada no extremo sul do Brasil. As projeções foram baseadas nos produtos do Quinto Relatório de Avaliação das Mudanças Climáticas (AR5), no Representative Concentration Pathway — RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 e RCP 8.5. Em cada cenário, foram utilizados produtos de até 39 modelos climáticos globais para a estimativa das projeções das variáveis em dois períodos futuros de 30 anos, centrados em 2030 (próximo) e 2070 (longo). Os resultados mostram como situação mais provável o aumento das vazões, com maior concordância entre os produtos do AR5, quando comparados aos do Quarto Relatório de Avaliação das Mudanças Climáticas (AR4) estimados em trabalho anterior. Nas projeções de cargas de nutrientes também prevalece o padrão de aumento. Os nutrientes analisados apresentam elevação de carga média anual de 9,34% no futuro próximo e no RCP 2.6, enquanto no futuro longo e no RCP 8.5 esse valor se eleva para 22,48%. Medidas mitigadoras deverão ser previstas com o objetivo de reduzir a carga de nutrientes afluentes e manter o bom estado ecológico da lagoa.

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Projeções de Vazão Afluente à Lagoa Mangueira com Base em Cenários de Mudanças Climáticas

Cited by 11 publications

References 12 publications

Analysis of hydrological extremes in the Guaíba hydrographic region: an application of extreme values theory

Analysis of hydrological extremes in the Guaíba hydrographic region: an application of extreme values theory

Analysis of flows in the Guaíba Hydrographic Region: Current variability and Trends due to Climate Change

Projeções de vazão para avaliação de estimativa de carga de nutrientes afluentes à lagoa Mangueira, Rio Grande do Sul, em cenários de mudanças climáticas do Quinto Relatório de Avaliação das Mudanças Climáticas

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