Project duration-cost-quality prediction model based on Monte Carlo simulation

Abstract

Based on the earned value management theory, the project duration and cost forecast data are obtained through Monte Carlo simulation, combined with the knowledge of mathematical statistics to in-depth analysis of the data, and then the project quality calculation is completed by establishing the quality correlation function. On the basis of existing scholars’ research, at the process level, the management focus is identified by calculating process influence and quality, and at the project level, the operation of the entire project is simulated and predicted by the calculation of the total construction period, cost, and quality.

Estimating Project Completion Time with Monte Carlo Simulation

“…Monte Carlo simulation is one of the frequently employed methods in risk analysis [9], [11][12][13][14][15]. It is an analysis method where a computer model is iterated many times with the input variables (e.g., activity durations) chosen randomly for every iteration [16].…”

Multi-objective integrated optimization study of Prefabricated building projects introducing sustainable levels

“…Shahsavari 7 constructed a duration-cost-quality multi-objective integrated optimization model based on quantification of quality objectives using linguistic variables and fuzzy theory, solved it using genetic algorithms.JS Zhuo 8 used a particle swarm algorithm to solve a duration-cost-quality. Xingguan Chen 9 obtained a project duration-cost-quality prediction model by Monte Carlo simulation based on earned value theory. Ning Lu 10 proposed the earned value method for construction safety management, which provides a quantitative approach to safety for subsequent scholars' research by quantifying safety gains.…”