Projected Change—Hydrology

Abstract

This chapter reviews studies on projected hydrological changes within the Baltic Sea catchment area published since the first assessment of climate change in the Baltic Sea region in 2008. Hydrological impact studies have been carried out in almost all countries in the area. The large differences in hydrological conditions (present and projected) from northern Scandinavia to the southern Baltic Sea area are addressed. The chapter considers the impacts of snow accumulation and melt, river discharge and flooding. Water resources with studies on dry periods and groundwater resources are also covered. In contrast to the first assessment, uncertainty has received significant attention. In contrast to traditional hydrological studies, projections of climate impacts on hydrology are associated with uncertainties related to the models and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios used. In several studies, individual uncertainty sources are quantified and compared.

Organic matter export to the seafloor in the Baltic Sea: Drivers of change and future projections

“…Freshwater runoff is projected to increase by 15-22% in the Baltic Sea during the coming century due to increased precipitation over land (Meier et al 2012). This will likely increase the input of terrestrially derived material in estuarine parts of the northern Baltic Sea where the largest increases in precipitation and runoff are expected to occur (Sonnenborg 2015; Table 2).…”

Long-Term Groundwater Regime Trends in the Agricultural Areas

“…Increasing winter precipitation is result in increased river discharge during winter. Groundwater recharge increase in areas where the infiltration capacity is not currently exceeded, resulting in higher groundwater levels (Sonnenborg, 2015). Fluctuation of groundwater level depends on three main factors: hydrological or between -rivers regime, infiltration seasonality, and lithology and thickness of sediments in aeration zone (Juodkazis, 1992).…”