Projected Change in Temperature and Precipitation Over Africa from CMIP6

Abstract

We analyze data of 27 global climate models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), and examine projected changes in temperature and precipitation over the African continent during the twenty-first century. The temperature and precipitation changes are computed for two future time slices, 2030–2059 (near term) and 2070–2099 (long term), relative to the present climate (1981–2010), for the entire African continent and its eight subregions. The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble projected a continuous and significant increase in the mean annual temperature over all of Africa and its eight subregions during the twenty-first century. The mean annual temperature over Africa for the near (long)-term period is projected to increase by 1.2 °C (1.4 °C), 1.5 °C (2.3 °C), and 1.8 °C (4.4 °C) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for weak, moderate, and strong forcing, referenced as SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. The future warming is not uniform over Africa and varies regionally. By the end of the twenty-first century, the largest rise in mean annual temperature (5.6 °C) is projected over the Sahara, while the smallest rise (3.5 °C) is over Central East Africa, under the strong forcing SSP5-8.5 scenario. The projected boreal winter and summer temperature patterns for the twenty-first century show spatial distributions similar to the annual patterns. Uncertainty associated with projected temperature over Africa and its eight subregions increases with time and reaches a maximum by the end of the twenty-first century. On the other hand, the precipitation projections over Africa during the twenty-first century show large spatial variability and seasonal dependency. The northern and southern parts of Africa show a reduction in precipitation, while the central parts of Africa show an increase, in future climates under the three reference scenarios. For the near (long)-term periods, the area-averaged precipitation over Africa is projected to increase by 6.2 (4.8)%, 6.8 (8.5)%, and 9.5 (15.2)% under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. The median warming simulated by the CMIP6 model ensemble remains higher than the CMIP5 ensemble over most of Africa, reaching as high as 2.5 °C over some regions, while precipitation shows a mixed spatial pattern.

Future evolution of the Sahel precipitation zonal contrast in CESM1

“…Over the western Sahel, monsoon precipitation tends to move southward. Although at a weaker intensity, similar changes have been obtained at a near-term time horizon (i.e., over the period 2010-2049) (Monerie et al, 2017) and with the RCP4.5 emission scenario (Monerie et al 2012;Akinsanola and Zhou 2018), and the CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (Almazroui et al 2020;Monerie et al 2020).…”

“…Fontaine et al (2011b) have shown that a robust pattern emerges over the Sahel in response to global warming, with the majority of CMIP3 climate projections showing an increase in central Sahel precipitation and a decrease in western Sahel precipitation. This has also been shown within the CMIP5 ensemble (Monerie et al 2012(Monerie et al , 2013(Monerie et al , 2016Biasutti 2013;Roehrig et al 2013;James et al 2015;Diallo et al 2016;Gaetani et al 2017;Akinsanola and Zhou 2018;Dunning et al 2018) and the CMIP6 ensemble (Almazroui et al 2020;Monerie et al 2020). The multi-model ensemble also projects a modulation of the seasonal cycle of Sahel precipitation, with a decrease over the western Sahel occurring mainly during the early Sahel rainy season (i.e., May-June-July-August) and an increase over the central Sahel occurring mainly during the last months of the Sahel rainy season (i.e., August-September-October) (Biasutti 2013;Seth et al 2013;Monerie et al 2016;Dunning et al 2018).…”

Sustainability of Underground Hydro-Technologies: From Ancient to Modern Times and toward the Future

“…The looming water crisis across the world should be faced by using ancient knowledge and technologies inherited from history, in addition to modern day achievements [101][102][103][104], to deal with water scarcity, especially in developing countries. The use of qanats and cisterns can be implemented nowadays, especially where these systems are lacking, in order to strive for the sustainability of water resources [56].…”

Analysis of the Variability and Future Evolution of Snowfall Trends in the Huaihe River Basin Under Climate Change

“…The CMIP data are obtained from climate change reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and provide important references. They have been widely used in the fields of meteorology (Priestley et al, 2020;Zhu et al, 2020), hydrology (Almazroui et al, 2020), ocean research (Grise and Davis, 2020) and others. The CMIP6 datasets included 11 models obtained under four climate change scenarios in 2015-2065 ( Table 1).…”