Projected Changes in Atmospheric Ridges over the Pacific–North American Region Using CMIP6 Models

Abstract

Projected changes in atmospheric ridges and associated temperature and precipitation anomalies are assessed for the end of the twenty-first century in a suite of 27 models contributing to phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) under a high-end emissions scenario over the Pacific–North American region. Ridges are defined as spatially coherent regions of positive zonal anomalies in 500-hPa geopotential height. The frequency of ridge days in the historical period varies by geography and season; however, ridge days are broadly more common over the region in winter and least common in summer. The CMIP6 models are credible in reproducing key features of reanalysis-derived ridge climatology. The CMIP6 models also reproduce historical temperature and precipitation anomalies associated with ridges. These associations include positive temperature anomalies over and to the west/northwest of the ridge peak and negative precipitation anomalies southeast of the ridge peak. Future projections show a general decrease in ridge days across most of the region in fall through spring, with considerable model agreement. Projections for summer are different, with robust projections of increases in the number of ridge days across parts of the interior western United States and Canada. The CMIP6 models project modest decreases in the probability of stronger ridges and modest increases in the probability of weaker ridges in fall and winter. Future ridges show similar temperature and precipitation anomaly associations as in the historical climate period, when future anomalies are computed relative to future climatology. Significance Statement Atmospheric ridges over the Pacific–North American region are a type of atmospheric circulation pattern associated with important weather and climate impacts. These impacts include heatwaves and drought. This study uses climate models to understand how ridges and their impacts may change under future climate warming. The results suggest that ridge days will be less common across parts of the domain in fall, winter, and spring. In summer, an increase in ridge days is projected in a region centered on Montana. Results suggest that temperature and precipitation patterns associated with ridges will change at a similar rate to the overall mean climate. This work provides evidence that continued climate warming will alter atmospheric circulation over the Pacific–North American region in complex ways.

Sixth Oregon climate assessment

“…estimated that a heat wave of similar magnitude will recur about once in six years by the end of the twenty-first century if concentrations of greenhouse gases do not decrease. There is no evidence that the highly unusual combination of weather features that drove the heat dome were made more likely by climate change, and climate models do not project an increase in the frequency of high-pressure ridges over the Pacific Northwest (Loikith et al 2022). However, the relations between extreme atmospheric circulation patterns and climate change are not yet fully understood.…”