Projected changes in climate extremes in China in a 1.5 °C warmer world

Chen, Huopo; Sun, Jun

doi:10.1002/joc.5521

Cited by 73 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…We test this hypothesis by examining events similar to the 2008 extreme cold winter in southern China ( Figure 5). This is consistent with that given by Chen and Sun (2018), who also indicated that the probability of individual extreme cold event would be rare under the 1.5°C and 2°C warming scenarios. This is consistent with that given by Chen and Sun (2018), who also indicated that the probability of individual extreme cold event would be rare under the 1.5°C and 2°C warming scenarios.…”

Section: Earth's Futuresupporting

confidence: 92%

“…In the context of global warming, summers in China will become warmer and the probability of extreme summer heat will increase. However, our result shows a larger probability of such hot extreme events in a 1.5°C or 2°C warmer world than that in Chen and Sun (2018) using the RCP scenario simulations. This finding is consistent with analyses for Europe conducted by Stott et al (2004) and Christidis et al (2015).…”

Section: Earth's Futurecontrasting

confidence: 69%

“…There is little difference in the change in precipitation among scenarios before the 2050s. Therefore, the decreased aerosol emissions will cause an increase in precipitation after the 2050s in those scenarios (Wang, Zhang, & Zhang, 2016 Chen and Sun (2018) based on the RCP scenarios simulations, who suggested that the precipitation significantly decreased over south and southwest China under the 1.5°C and 2°C warming scenarios. As be seen in Figure 2, the precipitation over China still increases while the temperature decreases after the 2050s under the 1.5degNE and 1.5degOS scenarios.…”

Section: Temporal and Spatial Climate Variation In China In A 15°c Omentioning

confidence: 99%

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Additional Intensification of Seasonal Heat and Flooding Extreme Over China in a 2°C Warmer World Compared to 1.5°C

Lin

Wang

et al. 2018

Earth's Future

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The Paris Agreement commits to stabilizing global mean surface warming to below 2°C (above preindustrial levels) and strives to limit it to 1.5°C to mitigate the risks of anthropogenic climate change. This study explores the impacts of stabilized 1.5°C and 2°C warming in the late 21st century on seasonal climate extremes over China by using a set of coupled Earth system model simulations explicitly targeting these warming levels. Our results show that global warming levels of 1.5°C and 2°C will lead to increases in surface air temperature (precipitation) averaged over China of 1.3°C and 1.9°C (11.6% and 13.3%), respectively, compared to 1976-2005. Climate extremes over China will become more frequent in a warmer world. Relative to the 1976-2005, the frequency of events similar to the 2013 extreme hot summer in eastern China and extreme flooding during the summer of 2010 in southeastern China will increase by 16 or 33 times and 2 or 3 times, respectively, given a global temperature increase of 1.5°C or 2°C. In particular, events similar to the 2013 extreme hot summer will occur almost yearly in a 2°C warmer world. The likelihood of an event similar to the 2014 extreme hot spring in northeastern China will increase to 8% or 20% in a 1.5°C or 2°C warmer world, whereas such events were rare during 1976-2005. Given these dangerous consequences, we conclude that there are discernible benefits for China to contribute to the global decarbonization effort to limit global warming to below 1.5°C rather than 2°C. Key Points:• Global warming levels of 1.5°C and 2°C will lead to increases in surface air temperature and precipitation averaged over China • Seasonal heat and flooding extremes over China will become more frequent in a 1.5°C or 2°C warmer world • Limiting the global warming at 1.5°C rather than 2°C will substantially reduce the frequency of those seasonal climate extremes in China , W. (2018). Additional intensification of seasonal heat and flooding extreme over China in a 2°C warmer world compared to 1.5°C. Earth's Future, 6, 968-978. https://doi.

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Section: Earth's Futuresupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Earth's Futurecontrasting

confidence: 69%

Section: Temporal and Spatial Climate Variation In China In A 15°c Omentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Additional Intensification of Seasonal Heat and Flooding Extreme Over China in a 2°C Warmer World Compared to 1.5°C

Lin

Wang

et al. 2018

Earth's Future

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“…In other regions elsewhere, such as East Asia, North America, Europe, and Australia, there have been extensive studies on climate change impacts at 1.5 and/or 2 °C of global warming (e.g., H. Chen & Sun, ; King & Karoly, ; King et al, ; Li, Zhou, et al, ; Li, Zou, & Zhou, ; Yohe, ). Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C may have benefits of avoiding 35–46% of the increases in extreme temperature events in terms of intensity, duration, and frequency across East Asia (Li, Zhou, et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

High‐Temperature Extreme Events Over Africa Under 1.5 and 2 °C of Global Warming

et al. 2019

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With anthropogenic global warming, heat‐related extreme events are projected to increase in severity and frequency. Already vulnerable regions like Africa will be hard‐hit. Therefore, such regions could benefit from low global warming levels. Using the Community Earth System Model low warming simulations, we investigate changes in temperature extremes across Africa as a function of global mean temperature in the context of the implications of the Paris Agreement's targets. A significant warming across Africa is projected at the 1.5 °C warming world and is amplified at the 2 °C world, exceeding the mean global warming rate. Specifically, North Africa and East Africa regions are projected to have the highest and lowest temperature changes of 0.63 °C (0.60–0.67 °C) and 0.50 °C (0.47–0.54 °C), respectively, between the 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds. Consequently, hot events are also estimated to increase with global warming. We showed that limiting warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C may lead to 29% (27–31%) to 35% (33–37%) reduction in severity of hot events and to 31% (30–33%) to 42% (39–48%) reduction in the frequency of the threshold‐based high‐temperature events across Africa. The highest reductions are projected over North Africa. Furthermore, restricting warming to 0.5 °C lower than 2 °C might also result in 28% (34–40%) to 37% (25–34%) reduction in severity of once‐in‐10/20‐year heat events across Africa with North Africa having the highest benefits than tropical regions. Thus, restricting warming to low levels may indeed translate to substantial benefits of reduced intensity and frequency of extreme heat events across Africa.

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“…Australia; and Vautard et al (2014) for Europe; Osima et al (2018) and Nkemelang et al (2018) for Africa; Swain and Hayhoe (2015) and Karmalkar and Bradley (2017) for the United States; Xu et al (2017), Chen and Sun (2018), , , Shi et al (2018), and Zhao and Zhou (2019) for East Asia (EA).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Köppen‐Trewartha Climate‐Type Changes Over the CORDEX‐East Asia Phase 2 Domain Under 2 and 3 °C Global Warming

Ahn

Cha

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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For the comprehensive estimation of regional climate change over East Asia (EA) at the 2 and 3°C global warming levels (GWLs), the Köppen-Trewartha climate-type change is assessed with ensemble regional climate change projections in line with Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-EA phase 2. Under the 2°C (3°C) GWL, 17.6% (25.2%) of the EA region is expected to undergo major climate-type changes. Tropical and subtropical climate types will expand northward, accompanied by increasing hydroclimatic intensity. Limiting GWL to 2°C shows benefits by preventing subtropical-type expansion around far EA. Desertification over inland regions of EA exhibits scenario dependency. Boreal and tundra climate types over high-latitude regions will tend to decrease rapidly, especially over the Tibetan Plateau. The results are expected to be a baseline assessment of climate change over EA under the 2 and 3°C GWLs above the preindustrial level.Plain Language Summary This paper investigates the Köppen-Trewartha climate-type changes over East Asia (EA) at the 2 and 3°C global warming levels (GWLs) with the ensemble regional climate simulations. Under the 2°C (3°C) GWL, 17.6% (25.2%) of the EA region is expected to undergo major climate-type changes. The result shows increased tropical, subtropical, and desert climate types accompanied by intensification of hydroclimatic stress. In addition, boreal and tundra climate types over high-latitude regions will tend to decrease rapidly, especially over the Tibetan Plateau under the 2 and 3°C GWLs.

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Projected changes in climate extremes in China in a 1.5 °C warmer world

Cited by 73 publications

References 42 publications

Additional Intensification of Seasonal Heat and Flooding Extreme Over China in a 2°C Warmer World Compared to 1.5°C

Additional Intensification of Seasonal Heat and Flooding Extreme Over China in a 2°C Warmer World Compared to 1.5°C

High‐Temperature Extreme Events Over Africa Under 1.5 and 2 °C of Global Warming

The Köppen‐Trewartha Climate‐Type Changes Over the CORDEX‐East Asia Phase 2 Domain Under 2 and 3 °C Global Warming

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