Projected Changes in Hot, Dry, and Compound Hot‐Dry Extremes Over Global Land Regions

Luca, Paolo De; Donat, Markus G.

doi:10.1029/2022gl102493

Cited by 35 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…In addition, our results confirm the findings in the existing literature based on GCMs (e.g. Liu et al 2021, Wu et al 2021, De Luca and Donat 2023, Tabari and Willems 2023, Tripathy et al 2023, highlighting the Mediterranean region as a hot-spot for future CHD events, which reinforce confidence in our results.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

“…Liu et al 2021, Wu et al 2021, De Luca and Donat 2023, Tabari and Willems 2023, Tripathy et al 2023 or specific regions only, such as central Europe (Sedlmeier et al 2018, Zscheischler andFischer 2020). For instance, Wu et al (2021), Liu et al (2021), Tripathy et al (2023), Tabari and Willems (2023) and De Luca and Donat (2023) found that central Europe and the Mediterranean are amongst the regions showing stronger increase in frequency and intensity of CHD events through the late 21st century. They also note that under a low-emission scenario the CHD occurrences would stabilise, hence limiting the most adverse effects on the population.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…Although many studies exist analysing future projections for Europe of either droughts (Potopová et al 2018, Spinoni et al 2018, Toreti et al 2019, Hari et al 2020 or heatwaves (Molina et al 2020, Lin et al 2022, studies analysing future CHD events mainly focus on either the global scale (e.g. Liu et al 2021, Wu et al 2021, De Luca and Donat 2023, Tabari and Willems 2023, Tripathy et al 2023 or specific regions only, such as central Europe (Sedlmeier et al 2018, Zscheischler andFischer 2020). For instance, Wu et al (2021), Liu et al (2021), Tripathy et al (2023), Tabari and Willems (2023) and De Luca and Donat (2023) found that central Europe and the Mediterranean are amongst the regions showing stronger increase in frequency and intensity of CHD events through the late 21st century.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Record-breaking and unprecedented compound hot and dry summers in Europe under different emission scenarios

Dosio,

Spinoni,

Migliavacca

2023

Environ. Res.: Climate

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After analysing observed summer compound hot and dry (CHD) events over Europe from 1950 to 2022, we employ a large ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model simulations to investigate CHD events under different emission scenarios.By the end of the century, even under a low-emission scenario, model results show a likely increase in the frequency and extension of CHD events over most (60%) of Europe. In particular, the fraction of land projected to be hit once every two years nearly doubles (at least 15%, likely range 6-21) compared to the historical period (8%, 6.5-10), and at least 5,3% (1-7) of land will be hit every year. Under a high-emission scenario, 50% of the Iberian Peninsula is projected to be hit at least twice every three years (20.3 times in 30 years, likely range 17.2-24.2), compared to 1 in ten years in the historical period, whereas 50% of the British Islands, France, and the Mediterranean will be hit more than once every two years. Moreover, 10% of European land will be hit nearly once every 7 years (4.2 times, 3.2-5.6) by CHD events whose intensity equalled or even surpassed the maximum recorded during 1950-2022, and 20% of the Iberian Peninsula once every 5 years. The increase in record-breaking or unprecedented CHD events is mostly related to the increase in record-breaking heatwaves, which is likely over most regions even for the low-emission scenario. In contrast, the increase in record-breaking drought events is limited to southern Europe under the medium- and high-emission scenarios.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Record-breaking and unprecedented compound hot and dry summers in Europe under different emission scenarios

Dosio,

Spinoni,

Migliavacca

2023

Environ. Res.: Climate

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“…On the other hand, the SPEI is computed from monthly total precipitation and monthly mean of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures, the last two used to compute potential evapotranspiration following the Hargreaves (1994) approximation; SPEI therefore represents drought in terms of lack of water availability. We use the entire investigation period as a baseline for the estimation of the distribution parameters (Vicente-Serrano et al 2020, De Luca and Donat 2023), i.e. 60 years (1960-2019 for the CMIP6 MME and BEST-GPCC datasets, and 57 years for ERA5-REGEN.…”

Section: Extreme Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Constraining decadal variability regionally improves near-term projections of hot, cold and dry extremes

De Luca,

Delgado-Torres,

Mahmood

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Hot, cold and dry meteorological extremes are often linked with severe impacts on the public health, agricultural, energy and environmental sectors. Skillful predictions of such extremes could therefore enable stakeholders to better plan and adapt to future impacts of these events. The intensity, duration and frequency of such extremes are affected by anthropogenic climate change and modulated by different modes of climate variability. Here we use a large multi-model ensemble from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and constrain these simulations by sub-selecting those members whose global SST anomaly patterns are most similar to observations at a given point in time, thereby phasing in the decadal climate variability with observations. Hot and cold extremes are skillfully predicted over most of the globe, with also a widespread added value from using the constrained ensemble compared to the unconstrained full CMIP6 ensemble. On the other hand, dry extremes show skill only in some regions with results sensitive to the index used. Still, we find skillful predictions and added skill for dry extremes in some regions such as western north America, southern central and eastern Europe, southeastern Australia, southern Africa and the Arabian peninsula. We also find that the added skill in the constrained ensemble is due to a combination of improved multi-decadal variations in phase with observed climate extremes and improved representation of long-term changes. Our results demonstrate that constraining decadal variability in climate projections can provide improved estimates of temperature extremes and drought in the next twenty years, which can inform targeted adaptation strategies to near-term climate change.

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“…However, the extent to which these models project changes in extremes and concurrently occurring extremes has not generally been used as a criterion. Additionally, previous studies have generally focused on continental or global scales whereas in-depth regional scale evaluations are still limited [24,25]. A thorough extremes-based evaluation at a regional scale can aid in the selection of GCMs for applications that require insight regarding both individual and CHD extremes for relevant adaptation studies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Historical evaluation and future projections of compound heatwave and drought extremes over the conterminous United States in CMIP6 ^*

Rastogi,

Trok,

Depsky

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Independently, both droughts and heatwaves can induce severe impacts on human and natural systems. However, when these two climate extremes occur concurrently in a given region, their compound impacts are often more pronounced. With the improvement in both the spatiotemporal resolution and representation of complex climate processes in the global climate models (GCMs), they are increasingly used to study future changes in these extremes and associated regional impacts. However, GCM selection for such impact assessments is generally based on historical performance and/or future mean changes, without considering individual or compound extremes. In contrast, this study evaluates historical performance and projected changes in heatwaves, droughts, and compound heatwave-droughts using an ensemble of GCMs from the latest Phase 6 of Coupled Models Intercomparison Project at a regional scale across the conterminous United States. Additionally, we explore the inter-model differences in the projected changes that are associated with various characteristics of extremes and the choice of drought indices. Our analysis reveals considerable variation among the GCMs, as well as substantial differences in the projected changes based on the choice of drought indices and region of interest. For example, the projected increases in both the frequency and intensity of drought and associated compound extreme days, based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index far exceed those derived from the standard precipitation index. Further, the largest changes in the frequency of compound extremes are projected over the Southwest, South Central, and parts of the Southeast while the smallest changes are projected over the Northeast. Overall, this study provides important insights for the interpretation and selection of GCMs for future assessment studies that are crucial for the development of regional adaptation strategies in the face of climate change.

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Projected Changes in Hot, Dry, and Compound Hot‐Dry Extremes Over Global Land Regions

Cited by 35 publications

References 54 publications

Record-breaking and unprecedented compound hot and dry summers in Europe under different emission scenarios

Record-breaking and unprecedented compound hot and dry summers in Europe under different emission scenarios

Constraining decadal variability regionally improves near-term projections of hot, cold and dry extremes

Historical evaluation and future projections of compound heatwave and drought extremes over the conterminous United States in CMIP6 ^*

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Projected Changes in Hot, Dry, and Compound Hot‐Dry Extremes Over Global Land Regions

Cited by 35 publications

References 54 publications

Record-breaking and unprecedented compound hot and dry summers in Europe under different emission scenarios

Record-breaking and unprecedented compound hot and dry summers in Europe under different emission scenarios

Constraining decadal variability regionally improves near-term projections of hot, cold and dry extremes

Historical evaluation and future projections of compound heatwave and drought extremes over the conterminous United States in CMIP6 *

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

Historical evaluation and future projections of compound heatwave and drought extremes over the conterminous United States in CMIP6 ^*