Projected Changes in Precipitation Characteristics around Japan under the Global Warming

Kimoto, Masahide; Yasutomi, Natsuko; Yokoyama, Chie; Emori, Seita

doi:10.2151/sola.2005-023

Cited by 86 publications

(74 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…The estimated river discharge from the high-resolution GCM named the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) can be used to predict future local hydrological extremes for risk assessments. Kimoto et al (2005) showed that long-term global climate simulated by the MIROC implemented herein shows a more realistic geographical distribution and more reasonable numbers of days with precipitation than do simulations with coarser resolutions using the same model. This suggests that our projection of future extremes provides state-of-the-art results based on the highresolution GCM.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 82%

“…Because the IPCC data distribution centre (http://www.ipcc-data.org/) do not provide daily discharge data, one possible way to estimate multi-model GCM projections in extreme river discharge is to run a land surface model using atmospheric forcing by the multiGCMs. However, because of the current limitation of other GCMs in terms of spatial resolution, direct use of discharge data by those models is not applicable to resolve extremes of daily river discharge, since the difference in meteorological features between higher (T106, approximately 1.1 degree) and middle (T42, 2.8-degree) GCMs is large (Kimoto et al, 2005). Moreover, the method using off-line simulation loses land-atmosphere feedback information.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The SRES A1B assumes a future world of very rapid economic growth and a mix of technological developments and fossil fuel use. Emori et al (2005) and Kimoto et al (2005) have discussed the future projection of precipitation by this simulation. The global warming experiment of the MIROC showed the highest temperature transient among the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) climate models due to its large ice-albedo feedback and lower ocean heat uptake.…”

Section: Gcm Output (1901-2100) By the Mirocmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Global projections of changing risks of floods and droughts in a changing climate

Hirabayashi

Kanae

Emori

et al. 2008

Hydrological Sciences Journal

380

250

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Simulated daily discharge derived from a relatively high-resolution (approximately 1.1-degree) general circulation model was used to investigate future projections of extremes in river discharge under global warming. The frequency of floods was projected to increase over many regions, except those including North America and central to western Eurasia. The drought frequency was projected to increase globally, while regions such as northern high latitudes, eastern Australia, and eastern Eurasia showed a decrease or no significant changes. Changes in flood and drought are not explained simply by changes in annual precipitation, heavy precipitation, or differences between precipitation and evapotranspiration. Several regions were projected to have increases in both flood frequency and drought frequency. Such regions show a decrease in the number of precipitation days, but an increase in days with heavy rain. Several regions show shifts in the flood season from springtime snowmelt to the summer period of heavy precipitation.Key words drought; flood; global warming; river discharge Projections globales des changements dans les risques de crues et de sécheresses liés au changement climatiqueRésumé Les débits journaliers simulés à partir d'un modèle de circulation générale d'une résolution relativement haute (approximativement 1.1 degré) ont été utilisés pour étudier les projections futures des extrêmes des débits de rivières dans le contexte du réchauffement global. Une augmentation de la fréquence des crues est projetée pour de nombreuses régions, à l'exception des régions incluant l'Amérique du Nord et l'Eurasie centrale à occidentale. L'augmentation de la fréquence des sécheresses est projetée globalement, alors que les régions des hautes latitudes boréales, de l'Australie orientale et de l'Eurasie orientale présentent une décroissance ou une absence de changement significatif. Les changements pour les crues et les sécheresses ne s'expliquent pas simplement par des changements dans les précipitations annuelles, les fortes précipitations ou les différences entre précipitation et évapotranspiration. Les projections de plusieurs régions présentent des augmentations à la fois dans la fréquence des crues et dans celle des sécheresses. De telles régions présentent une décroissance dans le nombre de jours de précipitation, mais une augmentation des jours de forte précipitation. Plusieurs régions présentent des décalages de la saison des crues, de la période printanière de fonte nivale vers la période estivale de fortes précipitations.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 82%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Gcm Output (1901-2100) By the Mirocmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Global projections of changing risks of floods and droughts in a changing climate

Hirabayashi

Kanae

Emori

et al. 2008

Hydrological Sciences Journal

380

250

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…There are studies that indicate that extreme events producing heavy rainfall increase in a global warming climate (Yoshizaki, 2005;Kimoto et al, 2005;Kamiguchi et al, 2006). Stability diagnosis for those climate simulation data should be useful for examining the variation of precipitation characteristics in the simulated climate.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dependence of the precipitation intensity in mesoscale convective systems to temperature lapse rate

Takemi

2010

Atmospheric Research

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The dependence of the structure and intensity of precipitation generated within squall lines to environmental temperature lapse rate is investigated by the use of a large set of numerical experiments under idealized model configurations. The lapse rate in a convectively unstable layer is used for the present analysis. The mean precipitation intensity during the simulated period generally increases with the increase in lapse rate, while the maximum precipitation intensity increases with the decrease in lapse rate. The precipitation mean is dependent on the intensity of cold pool resulting from organized convective clouds. In contrast, the precipitation maxima is regulated by relative humidity within the tropospheric lower layer. In an environment with higher lapse rate, a larger amount of CAPE is distributed in a deeper layer of the lower troposphere, which is beneficial for the development and intensification of convection and precipitation. Lapse rate in the troposphere is useful in comparing the characteristics of precipitation produced by mesoscale convective systems that occur in various climate regions of the world and also produced in a future climate under global warming.

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“…The PRUDENCE project combined different driving data with regional models, providing a series of high resolution climate change projections for Europe and allowing for a well-founded assessment of uncertainties (Christensen et al 2007a). An important advantage of regional models is their high spatial resolution, which has shown to improve the ability of models to represent current climate (Iorio et al 2004;Kimoto et al 2005).…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Future climate resources for tourism in Europe based on the daily Tourism Climatic Index

2010

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Climate is an important resource for many types of tourism. One of several metrics for the suitability of climate for sightseeing is Mieczkowski's "Tourism Climatic Index" (TCI), which summarizes and combines seven climate variables. By means of the TCI, we analyse the present climate resources for tourism in Europe and projected changes under future climate change. We use daily data from five regional climate models and compare the reference period to the A2 scenario in 2071-2100. A comparison of the TCI based on reanalysis data and model simulations for the reference period shows that current regional climate models capture the important climatic patterns. Currently, climate resources are best in Southern Europe and deteriorate with increasing latitude and altitude. With climate change the latitudinal band of favourable climate is projected to shift northward improving climate resources in Northern and Central Europe in most seasons. Southern Europe's suitability for sightseeing tourism drops strikingly in the summer holiday months but is partially compensated by considerable improvements between October and April.

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Projected Changes in Precipitation Characteristics around Japan under the Global Warming

Cited by 86 publications

References 15 publications

Global projections of changing risks of floods and droughts in a changing climate

Global projections of changing risks of floods and droughts in a changing climate

Dependence of the precipitation intensity in mesoscale convective systems to temperature lapse rate

Future climate resources for tourism in Europe based on the daily Tourism Climatic Index

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