Projected changes in rainfall and temperature over the Philippines from multiple dynamical downscaling models

Villafuerte, II Marcelino; Macadam, Ian; Daron, Joseph; Katzfey, Jack; Cinco, Thelma A.; Ares, Emma D.; Jones, Richard G.

doi:10.1002/joc.6301

Cited by 22 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…In the Philippines, the projected changes show a slight wetting (drying) tendency in DJF (JJA) (Fig. 10), which is fairly consistent with the projected changes in Villafuerete et al (2019) for mid twenty-first century under RCP8.5. In the GCM however, a slightly wetter condition is projected over the Philippines in JJA (Fig.…”

Section: Seasonal Precipitationsupporting

confidence: 77%

“…Overall, in addition to previous but limited studies (Kang et al 2019;Rahmat et al 2014;Katzfey et al 2014;Villafuerete et al 2019 and other initiatives at national levels), this study advances the scientific understanding of future climate change over the SEA region. Future studies should focus on reducing the biases in models, and to analyse whether individual models capture the complex and multiscale circulations over the region.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 50%

“…Some countries in SEA have also carried out future climate projection studies, e.g. Vietnam (Katzfey et al 2014;Ngo-Duc et al 2014), Philippines (Villafuerete et al 2019), Malaysia (NAHRIM 2006), andIndonesia (McGregor et al, 2016).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Projected future changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX–SEA multi-model simulations

et al. 2020

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This paper examines the projected changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia (SEA) in the twenty-first century based on the multimodel simulations of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX-SEA). A total of 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) have been downscaled using 7 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to a resolution of 25 km × 25 km over the SEA domain (89.5° E-146.5° E, 14.8° S-27.0° N) for two different representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The 1976-2005 period is considered as the historical period for evaluating the changes in seasonal precipitation of December-January-February (DJF) and June-July-August (JJA) over future periods of the early (2011-2040), mid (2041-2070) and late twenty-first century (2071-2099). The ensemble mean shows a good reproduction of the SEA climatological mean spatial precipitation pattern with systematic wet biases, which originated largely from simulations using the RegCM4 model. Increases in mean rainfall (10-20%) are projected throughout the twenty-first century over Indochina and eastern Philippines during DJF while a drying tendency prevails over the Maritime Continent. For JJA, projections of both RCPs indicate reductions in mean rainfall (10-30%) over the Maritime Continent, particularly over the Indonesian region by mid and late twenty-first century. However, examination of individual member responses shows prominent inter-model variations, reflecting uncertainty in the projections.

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Section: Seasonal Precipitationsupporting

confidence: 77%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 50%

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Projected future changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX–SEA multi-model simulations

et al. 2020

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“…Such climates are particularly influenced by climate change since tropical warming raises more frequent and intense extreme precipitation events (Allen and Ingram, 2002; Vecchi et al, 2006). In that context, regional climate simulations and projections in SEA have been investigated throughout a number of studies (e.g., Ge et al, 2019; Herrmann et al, 2020; Nguyen‐Thi et al 2021; Siew et al 2014; Tangang et al, 2019; Tangang et al, 2020; Trinh‐Tuan et al, 2019; Supari et al, 2020; Villafuerte et al, 2020). In any case, realistic models are needed to understand and study this complex and changing regional climate, and to help SEA develop appropriate adaptation and risk mitigation plans.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A novel method for ranking CMIP6 global climate models over the southeast Asian region

Desmet

Ngo‐Duc

2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The performance of 28 CMIP6 models in simulating the Southeast Asian (SEA) climate is investigated. An evaluation methodology is developed to evaluate spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation, near‐surface temperature, and 850‐hPa wind. Mean annual cycles of temperature and rainfall are assessed separately over Indochina, the Maritime Continent, and the Philippines; and the summer and winter seasons are selected for studying spatial patterns. Within these distinctions, statistics comparing the models to reference data are calculated. The patterns' shape and phase are notably studied, and wind direction differences are assessed specifically over the most major wind flows. We present a scoring procedure allowing us to give each model a unique score reporting on the diverse evaluation aspects, hence establishing a ranking. The process rests on a scoring function growing exponentially with the performance: it favours the models combining good performances according to the largest number of criteria. The assessment highlights EC‐Earth3 and EC‐Earth3‐Veg, which conduct excellent simulations of the regional patterns of rainfall and wind. Their temperature outputs are also reliable, but CNRM‐CM6 ranks first for this variable, while finishing third globally. Local differences are discussed: we emphasize, among other things, the diverse impact of topography on temperature and rainfall, or the frequent deviation of winter winds circulating from the South China Sea to the Java Sea. In addition, a similarity study reveals major difficulties for simulating near‐equatorial annual cycles of temperature and precipitation whereas the summer monsoon spatial rainfall patterns bring out the largest discrepancies. In any event, the top models pointed out by our ranking constitute a high‐performance subset that further climate modelling experiments in SEA can rely on.

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“…Other regional and national initiatives use a range of approaches to communicate climate model projections, such as probability distributions and percentile information (e.g. UKCP18 1 ; EUCP 2 ; Villafuerte et al 2019), as well as scenarios and storylines (e.g. Climate Change in Australia 3 ; Jack et al 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Communicating future climate projections of precipitation change

et al. 2021

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Understanding how precipitation may change in the future is important for guiding climate change adaptation. Climate models are the primary tools for providing information on future precipitation change, though communicating and interpreting results of different model simulations is challenging. Using an online survey, completed by producers and users of climate model information, we compare and evaluate interpretations of different approaches used to summarise and visualise future climate projections. Results reveal large differences in interpretations of precipitation change arising from choices made in summarising and visualising the data. Respondents interpret significantly smaller ranges of future precipitation change when provided with the multi-model ensemble mean or percentile information, which are commonly used to summarise climate model projections, compared to information about the full ensemble. The ensemble mean is found to be particularly misleading, even when used with information to show model agreement in the sign of change. We conclude that these approaches can lead to distorted interpretations which may impact on adaptation policy and decision-making. To help improve the interpretation and use of climate projections in decision-making, regular testing of visualisations and sustained engagement with target audiences is required to determine the most effective and appropriate visualisation approaches.

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Projected changes in rainfall and temperature over the Philippines from multiple dynamical downscaling models

Cited by 22 publications

References 45 publications

Projected future changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX–SEA multi-model simulations

Projected future changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX–SEA multi-model simulations

A novel method for ranking CMIP6 global climate models over the southeast Asian region

Communicating future climate projections of precipitation change

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