Projected changes in seasonal precipitation extremes over the United States in CMIP6 simulations

Akinsanola, A. A.; Kooperman, Gabriel J.; Reed, Kevin A.; Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Hannah, Walter M.

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abb397

Cited by 86 publications

(73 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…These hydroclimatic indices selected have been used in many studies (e.g., Klutse et al 2016a, b;Akinsanola et al 2019b) and are useful analysis when seeking to understand the daily rainfall variability over any given region. In the study, a rainfall event is defined as a day with a minimum precipitation amount exceeding 1 mm (e.g., Akinsanola et al 2020). Supplementary analyses on the performance of CMIP6 simulations investigated are the root mean squared error (RMSE) and the relative standard deviation (RSD).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several studies have examined the performance of CMIP3/CMIP5 models in simulating global precipitation characteristics and extremes (e.g., Crétat et al 2014;Nguyen et al 2017;Nikiema et al 2017;Pendergrass & Hartmann, 2014;Torma et al 2011;Almazroui and Islam, 2019) and some specific regions (e.g., Akinsanola et al 2020;Gaetani et al 2017). However, few studies (e.g., Diallo et al 2013;Ibrahim et al 2012;Klutse et al 2016b, Sylla et al, 2016Sylla et al 2013) have focused on examining daily precipitation characteristics over West Africa with other models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Climatic Analysis of Summer Monsoon Extreme Precipitation Events over West Africa in CMIP6 Simulations

et al. 2021

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We evaluate the capability of 21 models from the new state-of-the-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6) in the representation of present-day precipitation characteristics and extremes along with their statistics in simulating daily precipitation during the West African Monsoon (WAM) period (June–September). The study uses a set of standard extreme precipitation indices as defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices constructed using CMIP6 models and observational datasets for comparison. Three observations; Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), and Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite and ground-based observation (TAMSAT) datasets are used for the validation of the model simulations. The results show that observed datasets present nearly the same spatial pattern but discrepancies in the magnitude of rainfall characteristics. The models show substantial discrepancies in comparison with the observations and among themselves. A number of the models depict the pattern of rainfall intensity as observed but some models overestimate the pattern over the coastal parts (FGOALS-f3-L and GFDL-ESM4) and western part (FGOALS-f3-L) of West Africa. All model simulations explicitly show the pattern of wet days but with large discrepancies in their frequencies. On extreme rainfall, half of the models express more intense extremes in the 95th percentiles while the other half simulate less intense extremes. All the models overestimate the mean maximum wet spell length except FGOALS-f3-L. The spatial patterns of the mean maximum dry spell length show a good general agreement across the different models, and the observations except for four models that show an overestimation in the Sahara subregion. INM-CM4-8 and INM-CM5-0 display smaller discrepancies from their long-term average rainfall characteristics, in terms of extreme rainfall estimates than the other CMIP6 datasets. For the frequency of heavy rainfall, TaiESM1 and IPSL-CMGA-LR perform better when compared with observational datasets. MIROC6 and GFDL-ESM4 displayed the largest error in representing the frequency of heavy rainfall and 95th percentile extremes, and therefore, cannot be reliable. The study has assessed how rainfall extremes are captured in both observation and the models. Though there are some discrepancies, it gives room for improvement of the models in the next version of CMIP.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Climatic Analysis of Summer Monsoon Extreme Precipitation Events over West Africa in CMIP6 Simulations

et al. 2021

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“…Many studies have shown that the predictive effect of a multimodel ensemble is better than that of a single model [25,43,44]. Based on the performance of GCMs in East Asia (China) [18,19,45,46], this paper selected five GCMs: BCC-CSM2-MR, GFDL-ESM4, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MIROC6, and NorESM2-MM, as shown in Table 2.…”

Section: The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (Scenariomip) For...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…At present, CMIP5 is widely used in the hydrological prediction of the Huaihe River Basin (HRB) [20][21][22][23]. CMIP6 is mostly used at the global and regional scales [24][25][26] but rarely at the catchment scale. Jin et al showed that water resources and extreme hydrological events will slightly increase during 2021-2050 under RCP 2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 in the HRB [27].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Responses of Hydrological Processes under Different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Scenarios in the Huaihe River Basin, China

Yuan

et al. 2021

Water

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The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) provides more scenarios and reliable climate change results for improving the accuracy of future hydrological parameter change analysis. This study uses five CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) to drive the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model, and then simulates the hydrological response of the upper and middle Huaihe River Basin (UMHRB) under future shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSPs). The results show that the five-GCM ensemble improves the simulation accuracy compared to a single model. The climate over the UMHRB likely becomes warmer. The general trend of future precipitation is projected to increase, and the increased rates are higher in spring and winter than in summer and autumn. Changes in annual evapotranspiration are basically consistent with precipitation, but seasonal evapotranspiration shows different changes (0–18%). The average annual runoff will increase in a wavelike manner, and the change patterns of runoff follow that of seasonal precipitation. Changes in soil moisture are not obvious, and the annual soil moisture increases slightly. In the intrayear process, soil moisture decreases slightly in autumn. The research results will enhance a more realistic understanding of the future hydrological response of the UMHRB and assist decision-makers in developing watershed flood risk-management measures and water and soil conservation plans.

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“…If the trends identified in this study persist in the future, the millions of people living in the region should expect more frequent extreme weather events and their accompanying socioeconomic consequences. Global climate models have been used to project extreme precipitation trends (Akinsanola et al, 2020) and have predicted considerable variability in summer precipitation along the Atlantic coast of the U.S. (Singh et al, 2013). Therefore, continued efforts to connect past and future regional precipitation are crucial for improving climate resiliency.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating Temporal and Spatial Precipitation Patterns in the Southern Mid-Atlantic United States

2022

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The investigation of regional vulnerability to extreme hydroclimatic events (e.g., floods and hurricanes) is quite challenging due to its dependence on reliable precipitation estimates. Better understanding of past precipitation trends is crucial to examine changing precipitation extremes, optimize future water demands, stormwater infrastructure, extreme event measures, irrigation management, etc., especially if combined with future climate and population projections. The objective of the study is to investigate the spatial-temporal variability of average and extreme precipitation at a sub-regional scale, specifically in the Southern Mid-Atlantic United States, a region characterized by diverse topography and is among the fastest-growing areas in North America. Particularly, this work investigates past precipitation trends and patterns using the North American Land Data Assimilation System, Version 2 (NLDAS-2, 12 km/1 h resolution) reanalysis dataset during 1980–2018. Both parametric (linear regression) and non-parametric (e.g., Theil-Sen) robust statistical tools are employed in the study to analyze trend magnitudes, which are tested for statistical significance using the Mann-Kendall test. Standard precipitation indices from ETCCDI are also used to characterize trends in the relative contribution of extreme events to precipitation in the area. In the region an increasing trend (4.3 mm/year) is identified in annual average precipitation with ~34% of the domain showing a significant increase (at the 0.1 significance level) of +3 to +5 mm/year. Seasonal and sub-regional trends are also investigated, with the most pronounced increasing trends identified during summers along the Virginia and Maryland border. The study also finds a statistically significant positive trend (at a 0.05 significance level) in the annual maximum precipitation. Furthermore, the number of daily extremes (daily total precipitation higher than the 95th and 99th percentiles) also depicts statistically significant increases, indicating the increased frequency of extreme precipitation events. Investigations into the proportion of annual precipitation occurring on wet days and extremely wet days (95th and 99th percentile) also indicate a significant increase in their relative contribution. The findings of this study have the potential to improve local-scale decision-making in terms of river basin management, flood control, irrigation scheme scheduling, and stormwater infrastructure planning to address urban resilience to hydrometeorological hazards.

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Projected changes in seasonal precipitation extremes over the United States in CMIP6 simulations

Cited by 86 publications

References 53 publications

The Climatic Analysis of Summer Monsoon Extreme Precipitation Events over West Africa in CMIP6 Simulations

The Climatic Analysis of Summer Monsoon Extreme Precipitation Events over West Africa in CMIP6 Simulations

Responses of Hydrological Processes under Different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Scenarios in the Huaihe River Basin, China

Investigating Temporal and Spatial Precipitation Patterns in the Southern Mid-Atlantic United States

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