Projected changes in temperature, precipitation, and their extremes over China through the RegCM

Lü, Chen; Huang, Guohe; Wang, Xiuquan

doi:10.1007/s00382-019-04899-7

Cited by 37 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 58 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…We focus on mean and extreme precipitation because of the high uncertainty associated with projections for precipitation. Simulations form RegCM4, driven by Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) GCM, project a persistent increase in annual precipitation between 2070 and 2099 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (Lu et al 2019). The decrease in CDD projected in our study concurs with results from RegCM4 simulations driven by HadGEM2-ES, which project that the consecutive dry days will reduce in North China under RCP 8.5 (Shi et al 2018).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 84%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Historical and future climates over the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin simulated by a regional climate model in CORDEX

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Despite the importance of the Yellow River to China, climate change for the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin (YRB) has been investigated far less than for other regions. This work focuses on future changes in mean and extreme climate of the YRB for the near-term (2021–2040), mid-term (2041–2060), and far-term (2081–2100) future, and assesses these with respect to the reference period (1986–2005) using the latest REgional MOdel (REMO) simulations, driven by three global climate models (GCMs) and assuming historical and future [Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5] forcing scenarios, over the CORDEX East Asia domain at 0.22° horizontal resolution. The results show that REMO reproduces the historical mean climate state and selected extreme climate indices reasonably well, although some cold and wet biases exist. Increases in mean temperature are strongest for the far-term in winter, with an average increase of 5.6 °C under RCP 8.5. As expected, the future temperatures of the warmest day (TXx) and coldest night (TNn) increase and the number of frost days (FD) declines considerably. Changes to mean temperature and FD depend on elevation, which could be explained by the snow-albedo feedback. A substantial increase in precipitation (34%) occurs in winter under RCP 8.5 for the far-term. Interannual variability in precipitation is projected to increase, indicating a future climate with more extreme events compared to that of today. Future daily precipitation intensity and maximum 5-day precipitation would increase and the number of consecutive dry days would decline under RCP 8.5. The results highlight that pronounced warming at high altitudes and more intense rainfall could cause increased future flood risk in the YRB, if a high GHG emission pathway is realized.

show abstract

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 84%

“…The RCM PRECIS, forced by HadGEM2-ES, projects positive trends in SDII from the 2050s to the 2080s under RCP 8.5 (Zhu et al 2018). Projections simulated using RegCM4 show a strong increase in RX5day for the middle reaches of the YRB in the 2080s (Lu et al 2019).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Historical and future climates over the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin simulated by a regional climate model in CORDEX

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Aerosol processes and atmosphere-ocean coupling, however, were not considered in this study. Besides RCM and scheme options, GCM, scenario, and boundary conditions may cause uncertainties [14]. Ideally, more reliable and consistent climate projections can be produced through a multi-model ensemble [40].…”

Section: Regional Climate Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The result was consistent with the previous studies. Yellow River Basin would be likely to experience rainfall increase in the projected scenarios [14]. Compared with historical climate , GCMs projected a 4-18% and 23-37% increase in annual rainfall for the region during 2010-2039 and 2070-2099, respectively [69].…”

Section: Impact Of Climate Change On Soil and Water Erosionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The high-intensity rainfall events have important effects on soil erosion [13]. The mean surface temperature as well as the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events will increase during the twenty-first century in the Loess Plateau [14]. Due to climate change, global soil erosion in the next century is expected to increase by approximately 25-50% [15].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Assessment of Soil and Water Conservation Practices in the Loess Hilly Region Using a Coupled Rainfall-Runoff-Erosion Model

Cai

Guy

et al. 2020

Sustainability

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Soil and water conservation practices (SWCPs) are widely used to control soil and water loss. Quantifying the effect of SWCPs and climate change on soil and water erosion is important for regional environmental management. In this study, the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) and the Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE) were employed to investigate the patterns of surface runoff and soil erosion with different SWCPs in the hilly region on the Loess Plateau of China. The impact of climate change under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios was considered from 2020 to 2050. Surface runoff grew with the increased rainfall and rainfall erosivity, while soil erosion presented large variations between years due to uneven distribution of rainfall and rainfall erosivity under two scenarios. Different SWCPs significantly reduced surface soil and water loss. Compared with bare slopes, the reduction rates were 15–40% for surface runoff and 35–67% for soil erosion under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios, respectively. The combination of shrub and horizontal terracing was recommended due to its low water cost for sediment control among seven SWCPs.

show abstract

Analysis of climate extremes indices in tropical South America through the RegCM4.7

Silva

Oliveira

Silva

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In recent decades, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events induced by global warming have increased significantly, exerting serious impacts on the development of society and ecosystems. Based on low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emissions scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we use the general circulation model HadGEM2‐ES that is part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to drive the regional climate model RegCM4.7. This study evaluated the ability of both models to simulate (1986–2005) and projection (2080–2099) spatio‐temporal features of extreme indices over tropical South America (TSA). Indices based on precipitation and daily maximum and minimum temperature follow the definitions of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). In general, the RegCM4.7 reproduces accordingly the spatial distribution of the ETCCDI indices derived from precipitation and temperature on the TSA, in addition to added value to HadGEM2‐ES, especially over regions of complex topography. HadGEM2‐ES performs poorly along the west coast, due to the topography and altitude of the Andes. On the other hand, it demonstrates better performance in the Amazon Basin compared to RegCM4.7. The projection results showed that climate extreme indices based on precipitation and temperature indicate that drought events may advance to the end of the century, showing a spatial pattern that precipitation will be gradually reduced in the Amazon Basin and Northeast region of Brazil. Despite some discrepancies between the models, studies like this one help us to understand how climate change can affect regional planning and development.

show abstract

Projected changes in temperature, precipitation, and their extremes over China through the RegCM

Cited by 37 publications

References 58 publications

Historical and future climates over the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin simulated by a regional climate model in CORDEX

Historical and future climates over the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin simulated by a regional climate model in CORDEX

Assessment of Soil and Water Conservation Practices in the Loess Hilly Region Using a Coupled Rainfall-Runoff-Erosion Model

Analysis of climate extremes indices in tropical South America through the RegCM4.7

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About