Projected Changes in the Water Budget for Eastern Colombia Due to Climate Change

Abstract

There is a lack of information about the effect of climate change on the water budget for the eastern side of Colombia, which is currently experiencing an increased pressure on its water resources due to the demand for food, industrial use, and human demand for drinking and hygiene. In this study, the lumped model BROOK90 was utilized with input based on the available historical and projected meteorological data, as well as land use and soil information. With this data, we were able to determine the changes in the water balance components in four different regions, representing four different water districts in Eastern Colombia. These four regions reflect four different sets of climate and geographic conditions. The projected data were obtained using the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM), in which two global climate models were used in addition to two different climate scenarios from each. These are the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. Results showed that the temporal and spatial distribution of water balance components were considerably affected by the changing climate. A reduction in the generated streamflow for all of the studied regions is shown and changes in the evapotranspiration and stored water were varied for each region according to both the climate scenario as well as the characteristics of soil and land use for each area. The results of spatial change of the water balance components showed a direct link to the geography of each region. Soil moisture was reduced considerably in the next decades, and the percentage of decrease varied for each scenario.

Water Supply and Water Scarcity

“…However, the pertinent simulations at local scales are still subjected to additional challenges arising from the downscaling procedure and from uncertainties [34,35]. Molina et al [36] investigated the effect of climate change on the water budget in eastern Colombia, which currently experiences water scarcity due to increasing water demands for food production, industry, and domestic use. Using the model BROOK90 and historical and projected meteorological data, the authors provide information for potential changes in the water balance in four different regions characterized by distinct climatic conditions.…”

Evaluation of Runoff Simulation Using the Global BROOK90-R Model for Three Sub-Basins in Türkiye

“…Combalicer et al [17] installed and calibrated the model in the Bukmoongol Basin in Korea to evaluate the performance of the BROOK90 model and to identify the portions of precipitation converted to stream flow, evapotranspiration, and groundwater flow. Molina et al [31] determined changes in water balance components in four different regions in eastern Colombia using the BROOK90 model. Schaffrath et al [32] established the BROOK90 model in the Xilin River Basin of Mongolia and made an interpretation of spatial precipitation and evapotranspiration.…”

Diseño de una alternativa de suministro de agua para Vigía del Fuerte

“…Por otro lado, en países como la India [6] y Colombia, a pesar de contar con una disponibilidad hídrica favorable, en muchas regiones persiste la falta de agua potable debido a diversas razones tales como precaria infraestructura, contaminación con metales pesados y sólidos producto de la minería formal e informal [7]; además de la exploración de petróleo y gas, y de proyectos de generación de energía hidroeléctrica [8], y el vertimiento de residuos agrícolas y domésticos [9]. Algunas evaluaciones del efecto del cambio climático en Colombia han mostrado una reducción potencial del caudal generado por las cuencas hidrográficas [10], lo que podría afectar aún más el suministro de agua potable y de calidad en muchas regiones.…”

“…(𝑯𝑯𝟑𝟑 − 𝑯𝑯𝟎𝟎) (𝒕𝒕𝟑𝟑 − 𝒕𝒕𝟎𝟎)(𝑯𝑯𝟑𝟑 + 𝑯𝑯𝟎𝟎)(10) donde: 𝑬𝑬𝑬𝑬𝑬𝑬 = 𝑷𝑷 &𝟎𝟎. 𝟗𝟗 + 𝑷𝑷 𝟐𝟐 (𝟑𝟑𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎 + 𝟐𝟐𝟐𝟐𝑬𝑬 + 𝟎𝟎.…”