Projected changes in wave climate from a multi-model ensemble

Hemer, Mark; Fan, Yalin; Mori, Nobuhito; Semedo, Álvaro; Wang, Xiaolan L.

doi:10.1038/nclimate1791

Cited by 496 publications

(391 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…For some of the above factors, recent advances have been made to improve CFR assessment. Recently, there has been an increase in the number of studies and datasets related to future wave conditions (Fan et al, 2014;Hemer et al, 2013;Mentaschi et al, 2017) that can support large-scale CFR assessments. The uncertainty related to tidal contributions can be constrained by estimating site-specific α-factor estimates (see Eq.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding epistemic uncertainty in large-scale coastal flood risk assessment for present and future climates

Vousdoukas

Bouziotas

Giardino

et al. 2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. An upscaling of flood risk assessment frameworks beyond regional and national scales has taken place during recent years, with a number of large-scale models emerging as tools for hotspot identification, support for international policymaking, and harmonization of climate change adaptation strategies. There is, however, limited insight into the scaling effects and structural limitations of flood risk models and, therefore, the underlying uncertainty. In light of this, we examine key sources of epistemic uncertainty in the coastal flood risk (CFR) modelling chain: (i) the inclusion and interaction of different hydraulic components leading to extreme sea level (ESL), (ii) the underlying uncertainty in the digital elevation model (DEM), (iii) flood defence information, (iv) the assumptions behind the use of depth-damage functions that express vulnerability, and (v) different climate change projections. The impact of these uncertainties on estimated expected annual damage (EAD) for present and future climates is evaluated in a dual case study in Faro, Portugal, and on the Iberian Peninsula. The ranking of the uncertainty factors varies among the different case studies, baseline CFR estimates, and their absolute and relative changes. We find that uncertainty from ESL contributions, and in particular the way waves are treated, can be higher than the uncertainty of the two greenhouse gas emission projections and six climate models that are used. Of comparable importance is the quality of information on coastal protection levels and DEM information. In the absence of large datasets with sufficient resolution and accuracy, the latter two factors are the main bottlenecks in terms of large-scale CFR assessment quality.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding epistemic uncertainty in large-scale coastal flood risk assessment for present and future climates

Vousdoukas

Bouziotas

Giardino

et al. 2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…One of the most robust signatures of present and near-future climate warming is a widening of the tropics, with a continued poleward expansion of ~1° to 2° projected for later this century [52]. This tropical expansion may lead to an increased frequency of easterly and north-easterly waves along the Southeast Australian coast [51] and, as a result, the regional wave climate is predicted to rotate anticlockwise [50].…”

Section: Implications For Coastal Management In a Changing Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Nonetheless, it serves to demonstrate the importance of accounting for wave direction when estimating the likelihood of recurrence of storm wave conditions. Incorporating wave directional effects into extreme value analyses can significantly affect the design of coastal structures [48,49], especially when projecting future extreme conditions where there may be shifts in the directional wind and wave climate [50,51].…”

Section: Wave Direction Control On Recurrence Estimatesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The June 2016 Australian East Coast Low: Importance of Wave Direction for Coastal Erosion Assessment

Mortlock

Goodwin

McAneney

et al. 2017

Water

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Abstract:In June 2016, an unusual East Coast Low storm affected some 2000 km of the eastern seaboard of Australia bringing heavy rain, strong winds and powerful wave conditions. While wave heights offshore of Sydney were not exceptional, nearshore wave conditions were such that beaches experienced some of the worst erosion in 40 years. Hydrodynamic modelling of wave and current behaviour as well as contemporaneous sand transport shows the east to north-east storm wave direction to be the major determinant of erosion magnitude. This arises because of reduced energy attenuation across the continental shelf and the focussing of wave energy on coastal sections not equilibrated with such wave exposure under the prevailing south-easterly wave climate. Narrabeen-Collaroy, a well-known erosion hot spot on Sydney's Northern Beaches, is shown to be particularly vulnerable to storms from this direction because the destructive erosion potential is amplified by the influence of the local embayment geometry. We demonstrate the magnified erosion response that occurs when there is bi-directionality between an extreme wave event and preceding modal conditions and the importance of considering wave direction in extreme value analyses.

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“…3, obtained from the XIOM Catalan network of meteo-oceanographic instrumentation). This hypothesis is controversial, in particular in the case of large oceans, where Hemer et al (2013) found that the relationship between H and T is modified due to changes in swell waves. In semienclosed seas, due to the control of limited fetch, this swell effect becomes less important and the relationship between variables barely changes as shown by Casas-Prat and Sierra (2013).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A review of potential physical impacts on harbours in the Mediterranean Sea under climate change

et al. 2016

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The potential impact of climate change on port operations and infrastructures has received much less attention than the corresponding impact for beach systems. However, ports have always been vulnerable to weather extremes and climate change could enhance such occurrences at timescales comparable to the design lifetime of harbour engineering structures. The analysis in this paper starts with the main climatic variables affecting harbour engineering and exploitation. It continues with a review of the available projections for such variables first at global scale and then at a regional scale (Catalan coast in the western Mediterranean) as a study case for similar environments in the planet. The detailed assessment of impacts starts from downscaled projections for mean sea level and wave storms (wind not considered in the paper). This is followed by an analysis of the port operations and infrastructure performance that are relevant from a climate perspective. The key climatic factors here considered are relative sea level, wave storm features (height, period, direction and duration) and their combined effect, which is expected to produce the highest impacts. The paper ends with a discussion and some examples of analyses aiming at port adaptation to future climate change.

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Projected changes in wave climate from a multi-model ensemble

Cited by 496 publications

References 25 publications

Understanding epistemic uncertainty in large-scale coastal flood risk assessment for present and future climates

Understanding epistemic uncertainty in large-scale coastal flood risk assessment for present and future climates

The June 2016 Australian East Coast Low: Importance of Wave Direction for Coastal Erosion Assessment

A review of potential physical impacts on harbours in the Mediterranean Sea under climate change

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