Projected climate change impacts on vegetation distribution over Kashmir Himalayas

Rashid, Irfan; Romshoo, Shakil Ahmad; Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar; Ravindranath, N. H.; Sukumar, Raman; Jayaraman, Mathangi; Lakshmi, T. Vijaya; Sharma, Jagmohan

doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1456-5

Cited by 91 publications

(26 citation statements)

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“…The records from this meteorological station have previously been analysed and utilized in various studies (Jeelani et al ., ; Malik, ; Shah, ; Ashraf, ; Zaz and Romshoo, ; Wani, ; Rashid et al ., ; Rafiq and Mishra, ). The trend analysis of annual and seasonal mean maximum and minimum temperature over the period 1980–2010 showed a significant increase (Zaz and Romshoo, ; Rashid et al ., ). In the case of precipitation, the total amount of rainfall between 1975 and 2009 showed a significant decrease (Ashraf, ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The only meteorological station in the Lidder Valley is Pahalgam ( Figure 1) which has long climate records and is still operational. The records from this meteorological station have previously been analysed and utilized in various studies (Jeelani et al, 2012;Malik, 2012;Shah, 2012;Ashraf, 2013;Zaz and Romshoo, 2013;Wani, 2014;Rashid et al, 2015;Rafiq and Mishra, 2016). The trend analysis of annual and seasonal mean maximum and minimum temperature over the period 1980-2010 showed a significant increase (Zaz and Romshoo, 2013;Rashid et al, 2015).…”

Section: E761mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Precipitation reconstruction for the Lidder Valley, Kashmir Himalaya using tree‐rings of Cedrus deodara

Shah

Pandey

Mehrotra

2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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A reconstruction of annual to multi‐decadal precipitation based on ring‐width of Cedrus deodara (Himalayan cedar or deodar) was carried out in the Lidder (Liddar) Valley, Kashmir Himalaya. A composite tree‐ring chronology demonstrated a significant direct relationship with April–June precipitation. A modified version of point‐by‐point regression methodology was used to reconstruct April–June precipitation since 1723 C.E. This reconstruction accounts for 40% of the total variance of the actual precipitation in the calibration period. The reconstruction shows a prolonged decadal dry period between 1822 and 1887 C.E., the driest period in the reconstruction. The wettest period occurred during the early 19th century and latter part of the 20th century. Extreme dry and wet events have been identified in the reconstruction on the basis of percentile distribution. The reconstruction was compared with documented extreme flood, famines and drought events in Kashmir Valley occurring in those 288 years. The composite 500 mb height‐anomaly maps suggest the prospect to study the long‐term atmospheric circulation variability over the Kashmir Valley and surrounding region using tree‐ring data. The impact of westerlies in the precipitation patterns was also evident in analysis of composite 500 mb height anomaly. Furthermore, the reconstruction was validated through comparison with independent records and spatial correlation with gridded precipitation and drought.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: E761mentioning

confidence: 99%

Precipitation reconstruction for the Lidder Valley, Kashmir Himalaya using tree‐rings of Cedrus deodara

Shah

Pandey

Mehrotra

2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…The Kashmir valley is one of the important watersheds of the upper Indus basin, harboring more than 105 glaciers, and it experiences the mediterranean type of climate with marked seasonality (Romshoo and Rashid, 2014). Broadly, four seasons (Khattak et al, 2011;Rashid et al, 2015) are defined for the Kashmir valley: winter (December to February), spring (March to May), summer (June to August) and autumn (September to November). It is to be clarified here that while defining the period of NAO ( December-March to be winter months as defined by Archer and Fowler (2004) and Iqbal and Kashif (2013) and in all other parts of the paper it is December-February as per the IMD definition.…”

Section: Geographical Setting Of Kashmirmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Kumar et al (2015) also noted that major flood events in the Himalayas are related to changing precipitation intensity in the region. This necessitates making use of proper surrogate parameters like PV and distinguishing between different source mechanisms of extreme weather events associated with both the long-term climatic impacts of remote origin and shortterm localized ones like organized convection (Romatschke and Houze, 2011; Rasmussen and Houze, 2012;Rasmussen and Houze Jr., 2016;Martius et al, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyses of temperature and precipitation in the Indian Jammu and Kashmir region for the 1980–2016 period: implications for remote influence and extreme events

et al. 2019

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Abstract. The local weather and climate of the Himalayas are sensitive and interlinked with global-scale changes in climate, as the hydrology of this region is mainly governed by snow and glaciers. There are clear and strong indicators of climate change reported for the Himalayas, particularly the Jammu and Kashmir region situated in the western Himalayas. In this study, using observational data, detailed characteristics of long- and short-term as well as localized variations in temperature and precipitation are analyzed for these six meteorological stations, namely, Gulmarg, Pahalgam, Kokarnag, Qazigund, Kupwara and Srinagar during 1980–2016. All of these stations are located in Jammu and Kashmir, India. In addition to analysis of stations observations, we also utilized the dynamical downscaled simulations of WRF model and ERA-Interim (ERA-I) data for the study period. The annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation changes were analyzed by carrying out Mann–Kendall, linear regression, cumulative deviation and Student's t statistical tests. The results show an increase of 0.8 ∘C in average annual temperature over 37 years (from 1980 to 2016) with higher increase in maximum temperature (0.97 ∘C) compared to minimum temperature (0.76 ∘C). Analyses of annual mean temperature at all the stations reveal that the high-altitude stations of Pahalgam (1.13 ∘C) and Gulmarg (1.04 ∘C) exhibit a steep increase and statistically significant trends. The overall precipitation and temperature patterns in the valley show significant decreases and increases in the annual rainfall and temperature respectively. Seasonal analyses show significant increasing trends in the winter and spring temperatures at all stations, with prominent decreases in spring precipitation. In the present study, the observed long-term trends in temperature (∘Cyear-1) and precipitation (mm year−1) along with their respective standard errors during 1980–2016 are as follows: (i) 0.05 (0.01) and −16.7 (6.3) for Gulmarg, (ii) 0.04 (0.01) and −6.6 (2.9) for Srinagar, (iii) 0.04 (0.01) and −0.69 (4.79) for Kokarnag, (iv) 0.04 (0.01) and −0.13 (3.95) for Pahalgam, (v) 0.034 (0.01) and −5.5 (3.6) for Kupwara, and (vi) 0.01 (0.01) and −7.96 (4.5) for Qazigund. The present study also reveals that variation in temperature and precipitation during winter (December–March) has a close association with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Further, the observed temperature data (monthly averaged data for 1980–2016) at all the stations show a good correlation of 0.86 with the results of WRF and therefore the model downscaled simulations are considered a valid scientific tool for the studies of climate change in this region. Though the correlation between WRF model and observed precipitation is significantly strong, the WRF model significantly underestimates the rainfall amount, which necessitates the need for the sensitivity study of the model using the various microphysical parameterization schemes. The potential vorticities in the upper troposphere are obtained from ERA-I over the Jammu and Kashmir region and indicate that the extreme weather event of September 2014 occurred due to breaking of intense atmospheric Rossby wave activity over Kashmir. As the wave could transport a large amount of water vapor from both the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea and dump them over the Kashmir region through wave breaking, it probably resulted in the historical devastating flooding of the whole Kashmir valley in the first week of September 2014. This was accompanied by extreme rainfall events measuring more than 620 mm in some parts of the Pir Panjal range in the south Kashmir.

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“…The analysis of the snout retreat of all the four parts of Kolahoi Glacier also indicated an accelerated retreat of the glacier across the analysis period. This could perhaps be attributed to the warming environment that increases ablation and [77,78] forces change in the form of precipitation [21,31,79] and potentially high ambient black carbon concentration, such as that observed near glaciers in the Kashmir region [80,81]. The accelerated rate of retreat of glaciers in northwest Himalaya has been very well documented in many recent studies [82][83][84].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Linking the Recent Glacier Retreat and Depleting Streamflow Patterns with Land System Changes in Kashmir Himalaya, India

Rashid

Majeed

Aneaus

et al. 2020

Water

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This study reports the changes in glacier extent and streamflow similar to many Himalayan studies, but takes the unusual step of also linking these to downstream land use changes in Kashmir Valley. This study assessed changes in the area, snout, and equilibrium line altitude (ELA) of four parts of the Kolahoi Glacier using earth observation data from 1962 to 2018. Changes in the discharge of the two streams flowing out from Kolahoi Glacier into the Jhelum basin were also assessed between 1972 and 2018. Additionally, satellite data was used to track the downstream land system changes concerning agriculture, orchards, and built-up areas between 1980 and 2018. This analysis suggested a cumulative deglaciation of 23.6% at a rate of 0.42% per year from 1962 to 2018. The snout of two larger glaciers, G1 and G2, retreated at a rate of 18.3 m a −1 and 16.4 m a −1 , respectively, from 1962 to 2018, although the rate of recession accelerated after 2000. Our analysis also suggested the upward shift of ELA by ≈120 m. The streamflows measured at five sites showed statistically significant depleting trends that have been a factor in forcing extensive land system changes downstream. Although the area under agriculture in Lidder watershed shrunk by 39%, there was a massive expansion of 176% and 476% in orchards and built-up areas, respectively, from 1980 to 2018. The conversion of irrigation-intensive agriculture lands (rice paddy) to less water-intensive orchards is attributed to economic considerations and depleting streamflow.Water 2020, 12, 1168 2 of 18 to decrease in the streamflows in the Himalayan Rivers [7,[27][28][29], which could affect water availability downstream [30]. Studies suggest that the glacier recession in the Kashmir valley has already resulted in the depleted streamflows downstream [31,32]. The land system changes in the region [33][34][35][36] have been linked to depleting streamflows, economic considerations, and unplanned land transformation.The use of remote sensing data for quantifying land system changes over the Kashmir region has been widely documented [37][38][39][40]. At the same time, there is substantial scientific literature detailing the glacier retreat prevalent over the region. A recent study indicated that the glaciers in the Ladakh region are retreating at 0.55% a −1 [41], whereas another study [42] reported few stable and advancing glaciers in the Zanskar region of Jammu and Kashmir. Similar retreat estimates have been put forth for the Zanskar region for the glacier area changes carried between 1989 and 2007 [43]. However, very conservative area changes (0.16% a −1 ) have been reported for the neighboring Suru basin [44] for the glacier area changes assessed for the 1977-2017 period. In another study carried out in the Lidder watershed of the Jhelum basin, the glaciers were reported to be shrinking at 0.51% a −1 [17]. Glacier mass change over the western Himalayas has accelerated from 0.33 to 0.5 m w.e. (water equivalent) per year between 1970-2000 and 2000-2010, respectively [45]. Ther...

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Projected climate change impacts on vegetation distribution over Kashmir Himalayas

Cited by 91 publications

References 50 publications

Precipitation reconstruction for the Lidder Valley, Kashmir Himalaya using tree‐rings of Cedrus deodara

Precipitation reconstruction for the Lidder Valley, Kashmir Himalaya using tree‐rings of Cedrus deodara

Analyses of temperature and precipitation in the Indian Jammu and Kashmir region for the 1980–2016 period: implications for remote influence and extreme events

Linking the Recent Glacier Retreat and Depleting Streamflow Patterns with Land System Changes in Kashmir Himalaya, India

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