Projected estimates of cancer in Canada in 2024

Abstract

Background: Cancer surveillance data are essential to help understand where gaps exist and progress is being made in cancer control. We sought to summarize the expected impact of cancer in Canada in 2024, with projections of new cancer cases and deaths from cancer by sex and province or territory for all ages combined. Methods: We obtained data on new cancer cases (i.e., incidence, 1984–2019) and deaths from cancer (i.e., mortality, 1984–2020) from the Canadian Cancer Registry and Canadian Vital Statistics Death Database, respectively. We projected cancer incidence and mortality counts and rates to 2024 for 23 types of cancer, overall, by sex, and by province or territory. We calculated age-standardized rates using data from the 2011 Canadian standard population. Results: In 2024, the number of new cancer cases and deaths from cancer are expected to reach 247 100 and 88 100, respectively. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and mortality rate (ASMR) are projected to decrease slightly from previous years for both males and females, with higher rates among males (ASIR 562.2 per 100 000 and ASMR 209.6 per 100 000 among males; ASIR 495.9 per 100 000 and ASMR 152.8 per 100 000 among females). The ASIRs and ASMRs of several common cancers are projected to continue to decrease (i.e., lung, colorectal, and prostate cancer), while those of several others are projected to increase (i.e., liver and intrahepatic bile duct cancer, kidney cancer, melanoma, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma). Interpretation: Although the overall incidence of cancer and associated mortality are declining, new cases and deaths in Canada are expected to increase in 2024, largely because of the growing and aging population. Efforts in prevention, screening, and treatment have reduced the impact of some cancers, but these short-term projections highlight the potential effect of cancer on people and health care systems in Canada.

A Survey Detailing Early Onset Colorectal Cancer Patient and Caregiver Experiences in Canada

“…Colorectal cancer is the 4th most frequently diagnosed cancers in Canada and the second leading cause of cancer death in men and the 3rd leading cause of death in women. [ 1 ]. In 2024, it is projected to impact an additional 24,200 Canadians, with a five-year survival rate of 66% for males and 67% for females and it is estimated that about 9400 Canadians will die form the disease.…”

Ce n’est pas au service des urgences que devrait être annoncé un diagnostic de cancer

“…Le présent numéro du JAMC met en lumière les projections de Brenner et ses collègues 1 relativement aux diagnostics de cancer au Canada en 2024. Malgré le déclin général de l’incidence du cancer et de la mortalité qui lui est associée, la croissance et le vieillissement de la population occasionneront une hausse du nombre absolu de personnes qui recevront un tel diagnostic cette année.…”

“…Les projections de Brenner et ses collègues 1 nous rappellent que l’efficacité de la prévention, du dépistage et du traitement du cancer réduit l’incidence du cancer et de la mortalité qui lui est associée. Il est indispensable de soutenir les efforts déployés afin de mieux faire connaître les premiers symptômes du cancer, réduire les obstacles à son dépistage et favoriser son diagnostic hâtif dans les milieux des soins primaires et hospitaliers.…”