Projected heat-related mortality under climate change in the metropolitan area of Skopje

Martínez, Gerardo Sánchez; Baccini, Michela; Ridder, Koen De; Hooyberghs, Hans; Lefebvre, Wouter; Kendrovski, Vladimir; Scott, Kristen M.; Spasenovska, Margarita

doi:10.1186/s12889-016-3077-y

Cited by 29 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…Evidently, this increase in hot days is compatible with IPCC predictions ( IPCC, 2013 ), which indicate that heat waves will become increasingly frequent in Europe. From the point of view of the health impact, heat-related mortality increases, particularly under the no acclimatization scenario, are also consistent with recent studies ( Martinez et al, 2016 ).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Heat and health in Antwerp under climate change: Projected impacts and implications for prevention

Martínez

Díaz

Hooyberghs

et al. 2018

Environment International

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BackgroundExcessive summer heat is a serious environmental health problem in several European cities. Heat-related mortality and morbidity is likely to increase under climate change scenarios without adequate prevention based on locally relevant evidence.MethodsWe modelled the urban climate of Antwerp for the summer season during the period 1986–2015, and projected summer daily temperatures for two periods, one in the near (2026–2045) and one in the far future (2081–2100), under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. We then analysed the relationship between temperature and mortality, as well as with hospital admissions for the period 2009–2013, and estimated the projected mortality in the near future and far future periods under changing climate and population, assuming alternatively no acclimatization and acclimatization based on a constant threshold percentile temperature.ResultsDuring the sample period 2009–2013 we observed an increase in daily mortality from a maximum daily temperature of 26 °C, or the 89th percentile of the maximum daily temperature series. The annual average heat-related mortality in this period was 13.4 persons (95% CI: 3.8–23.4). No effect of heat was observed in the case of hospital admissions due to cardiorespiratory causes. Under a no acclimatization scenario, annual average heat-related mortality is multiplied by a factor of 1.7 in the near future (24.1 deaths/year CI 95%: 6.78–41.94) and by a factor of 4.5 in the far future (60.38 deaths/year CI 95%: 17.00–105.11). Under a heat acclimatization scenario, mortality does not increase significantly in the near or in the far future.ConclusionThese results highlight the importance of a long-term perspective in the public health prevention of heat exposure, particularly in the context of a changing climate, and the calibration of existing prevention activities in light of locally relevant evidence.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Heat and health in Antwerp under climate change: Projected impacts and implications for prevention

Martínez

Díaz

Hooyberghs

et al. 2018

Environment International

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“…Mortality was projected for 25 GCMs, RCP 4.5 and 8.5, and three population variants (high, medium, and low fertility variants). We chose summer as the target period for the projections because much less is known about adaptation to cold than to hot temperatures [4,7,8,9,10,12,14,17,18].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Projections of future temperature-related mortality associated with increasing surface temperatures under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) have infrequently considered future demographic change and the possible effectiveness of adaptation policies [1,2,3,4,5,6]. Using total population changes, Wu et al (2014), Stone et al (2014), Kim et al (2014), and Martinez et al (2016) projected future temperature-related mortality to be linearly scaled with population change [7,8,9,10]. Lee and Kim (2016) considered population and demographic composition changes, projecting that future temperature-related mortality rapidly increases in South Korea [11].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temperature-Related Summer Mortality Under Multiple Climate, Population, and Adaptation Scenarios

Lee

Ebi

et al. 2019

IJERPH

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Projections of the magnitude and pattern of possible health risks from climate change should be based on multiple climate and development scenarios to describe the range of uncertainties, to inform effective and efficient policies. For a better understanding of climate change-related risks in seven metropolitan cities of South Korea, we estimated temperature-related summer (June to August) mortality until 2100 using projected changes in climate, population, and adaptation. In addition, we extracted the variations in the mortality estimates associated with uncertainties in climate, population, and adaptation scenarios using 25 climate models, two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), three population scenarios (high, medium and low variants), and four adaptation scenarios (absolute threshold shift, slope reduction in the temperature-mortality relationship, a combination of slope reduction and threshold shift, and a sigmoid function based on the historical trend). Compared to the baseline period (1991–2015), temperature-attributable mortality in South Korea during summer in the 2090s is projected to increase 5.1 times for RCP 4.5 and 12.9 times for RCP 8.5 due to climate and population changes. Estimated future mortality varies by up to +44%/−55%, −80%, −60%, and +12%/−11% associated with the choice of climate models, adaptation, climate, and population scenarios, respectively, compared to the mortality estimated for the median of the climate models, no adaptation, RCP 8.5, and medium population variant. Health system choices about adaptation are the most important determinants of future mortality after climate projections. The range of possible future mortality underscores the importance of flexible, iterative risk management.

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“…Due to the UHI increment, cities are particularly vulnerable to heat waves, causing higher heat-related excess mortalities [6][7][8]. The risks of morbidity and mortality in urban areas are further increased by climate change, due to the increasing frequency of weather extremes [9,10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A New Method to Assess Fine-Scale Outdoor Thermal Comfort for Urban Agglomerations

Lauwaet

Maiheu

Ridder

et al. 2020

Climate

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In urban areas, high air temperatures and heat stress levels greatly affect human thermal comfort and public health, with climate change further increasing the mortality risks. This study presents a high resolution (100 m) modelling method, including detailed offline radiation calculations, that is able to efficiently calculate outdoor heat stress for entire urban agglomerations for a time period spanning several months. A dedicated measurement campaign was set up to evaluate model performance, yielding satisfactory results. As an example, the modelling tool was used to assess the effectiveness of green areas and water surfaces to cool air temperatures and wet bulb globe temperatures during a typical hot day in the city of Ghent (Belgium), since the use of vegetation and water bodies are shown to be promising in mitigating the adverse effects of urban heat islands and improving thermal comfort. The results show that air temperature reduction is most profound over water surfaces during the afternoon, while open rural areas are coolest during the night. Radiation shading from trees, and to a lesser extent, from buildings, is found to be most effective in reducing wet bulb globe temperatures and improving thermal comfort during the warmest moments of the day.

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Projected heat-related mortality under climate change in the metropolitan area of Skopje

Cited by 29 publications

References 56 publications

Heat and health in Antwerp under climate change: Projected impacts and implications for prevention

Heat and health in Antwerp under climate change: Projected impacts and implications for prevention

Temperature-Related Summer Mortality Under Multiple Climate, Population, and Adaptation Scenarios

A New Method to Assess Fine-Scale Outdoor Thermal Comfort for Urban Agglomerations

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