Projected Impact of Climate Change on Habitat Suitability of a Vulnerable Endemic Vachellia negrii (pic.serm.) kyal. & Boatwr (Fabaceae) in Ethiopia

Abstract

Species tend to shift their suitable habitat both altitudinally and latitudinally under climate change. Range shift in plants brings about habitat contraction at rear edges, forcing leading edge populations to explore newly available suitable habitats. In order to detect these scenarios, modeling of the future geographical distribution of the species is widely used. Vachellia negrii (Pic.-Serm.) Kyal. & Boatwr. is endemic to Ethiopia and was assessed as vulnerable due to changes to its habitat by anthropogenic impacts. It occurs in upland wooded grassland from 2000–3100 m.a.s.l. The main objective of this study is to model the distribution of Vachellia negrii in Ethiopia by using Maxent under climate change. Nineteen bioclimatic variables were downloaded from an open source. Furthermore, topographic position index (tpi), solar radiation index (sri) and elevation were used. Two representative concentration pathways were selected (RCP 4.5 and RC P8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070 using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM 5). A correlation analysis of the bioclimatic variables has resulted in the retention of 10 bioclimatic variables for modeling. Forty-eight occurrence points were collected from herbarium specimens. The area under curve (AUC) is 0.94, indicating a high-performance level of the model. The distribution of the species is affected by elevation (26.4%), precipitation of the driest month (Bio 14, 21.7%), solar radiation (12.9%) and precipitation seasonality (Bio15, 12.2%). Whereas the RCP 8.5 has resulted in decrease of suitable areas of the species from the current 4,314,153.94 ha (3.80%) to 4,059,150.90 ha (3.58%) in 2050, this area will shrink to 3,555,828.71 ha in 2070 under the same scenario. As climate change severely affects the environment, highly suitable areas for the growth of the study subject will decrease by 758,325 ha. The study’s results shows that this vulnerable, endemic species is facing habitat contraction and requires interventions to ensure its long-term persistence.

Potential climatic and elevational range shifts in the Italian narrow endemic Bellevalia webbiana (Asparagaceae) under climate change scenarios

“…Several authors already evidenced similar future reductions in other stenochorous endemic plant species (Hong-Wa and Arroyo 2012; Wulff et al 2013;Dülgeroğlu and Aksoy 2019;Khajoei Nasab et al 2020;Semu et al 2021), building up a consolidated body of knowledge on the potential risk of climate changes for the conservation of endemic plant species in different biogeographical contexts. The results of this study also reinforce the findings by Walker (2014) and Darrah et al (2017), who highlighted the high risk of extinction of bulbous monocots, which often have stable local populations but limited dispersal capacity.…”

Modelling the Potential Distributions of Sawo Kecik (Manilkara Kauki (L.)) Dubard Using Maxent to Support Conservations of Historical and Cultural Vegetations in Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta Province

“…The research was conducted on DIY Province. The study methodology followed methods developed by Semu et al (2021), including species occurrence, environmental variables, and model evaluation. The method to estimate and model the potential distributions of M. kauki was comprises several steps (Fig.…”