Projected impact of COVID-19 mitigation strategies on hospital services in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area

Abstract

Evidence-based models may assist Mexican government officials and health authorities in determining the safest plans to respond to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in the most-affected region of the country, the Mexico City Metropolitan Area. This study aims to present the potential impacts of COVID-19 in this region and to model possible benefits of mitigation efforts. The COVID-19 Hospital Impact Model for Epidemics was used to estimate the probable evolution of COVID-19 in three scenarios: (i) no social distancing, (ii) social distancing in place at 50% effectiveness, and (iii) social distancing in place at 60% effectiveness. Projections of the number of inpatient hospitalizations, intensive care unit admissions, and patients requiring ventilators were made for each scenario. Using the model described, it was predicted that peak case volume at 0% mitigation was to occur on April 30, 2020 at 11,553,566 infected individuals. Peak case volume at 50% mitigation was predicted to occur on June 1, 2020 with 5,970,093 infected individuals and on June 21, 2020 for 60% mitigation with 4,128,574 infected individuals. Occupancy rates in hospitals during peak periods at 0%, 50%, and 60% mitigation would be 875.9%, 322.8%, and 203.5%, respectively, when all inpatient beds are included. Under these scenarios, peak daily hospital admissions would be 40,438, 13,820, and 8,650. Additionally, 60% mitigation would result in a decrease in peak intensive care beds from 94,706 to 23,116 beds and a decrease in peak ventilator need from 67,889 to 17,087 units. Mitigating the spread of COVID-19 through social distancing could have a dramatic impact on reducing the number of infected people and minimize hospital overcrowding. These evidence-based models may enable careful resource utilization and encourage targeted public health responses.

The Trade-off Between Prioritization and Vaccination Speed Depends on Mitigation Measures

“…The strain on healthcare capacity or economic costs may weigh in favor of prioritization policies that instead reduce infections. It is possible to adapt our framework to compare the effects of vaccine prioritization and specific mitigation measures on healthcare utilization [31] or economic impacts [24].…”

COVID‐19: Current knowledge in clinical features, immunological responses, and vaccine development

“…In fact, modeling and investigation into hospital admission rates associated with mitigation methods, varying lockdown scenarios, times, and duration, indicate that lockdown measures outperform less stringent restrictions in reducing cumulative deaths and pressure on health-care system. [46][47][48] It was also projected that lockdown at the early stage of transmission would have saved more lives. The short-term lockdowns, so-called circuit breaker intervention in the United Kingdom were found to have the biggest impact when the infection rate is low.…”

“…The balance between effective mitigation measures to control the spread and protecting national economies is extremely complex. In fact, modeling and investigation into hospital admission rates associated with mitigation methods, varying lockdown scenarios, times, and duration, indicate that lockdown measures outperform less stringent restrictions in reducing cumulative deaths and pressure on health‐care system 46‐48 . It was also projected that lockdown at the early stage of transmission would have saved more lives.…”

Global & Community Health: Implementation of and Patient Satisfaction With the First Neurologic Telemedicine Program in Mexico During COVID-19

“…As part of the mitigation strategies besides social distancing and mandatory use of facemasks, other measures to reduce the risk of infection among healthcare workers such as increasing the time between work shifts and sending high-risk personnel to in-home isolation were taken, leading to a significantly reduced workforce, requiring relocation of medical personnel from multiple specialties to the frontline. 1,2 Due to staff shortage, many Mexican hospitals faced the need to reduce the number of non-COVID-19 face-to-face consultations. 2,3 Across multiple specialties, including neurology, telemedicine has proven to be an effective outpatient follow-up method.…”

“…1,2 Due to staff shortage, many Mexican hospitals faced the need to reduce the number of non-COVID-19 face-to-face consultations. 2,3 Across multiple specialties, including neurology, telemedicine has proven to be an effective outpatient follow-up method. 4 Under the current circumstances, it facilitates public health mitigation strategies by increasing social distancing and reducing mobility.…”