Projected Impact of Increased Global Warming on Heat Stress and Exposed Population Over Africa

Fotso‐Nguemo, Thierry C.; Weber, Torsten; Diedhiou, Arona; Chouto, Steven; Vondou, Derbetini A.; Rechid, Diana; Jacob, Daniela

doi:10.1029/2022ef003268

Cited by 25 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…In such conditions, normal rainfall is likely interpreted as an extreme event as it can lead to flooding. NTX35 is expected to increase together with NTN25, meaning a possible risk of thermal discomfort (Fotso‐Nguemo et al, 2022, 2023) and therefore heat‐related illness. The use of air conditioners to equip homes or workplaces is the most widely used means of adaptation.…”

Section: Possible Implications For Socio‐economic Sectorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition, the number and duration of hot nights are expected to increase over equatorial Africa, together with the intensification of the frequency of heat wave events, and may amplify with increasing global warming levels (Weber et al, 2018). Recent studies by Fotso‐Nguemo et al (2022, 2023) reveals that as the world warms up, the population of Central Africa would be exposed to the risk of discomfort related to heat stress, which would increase with the level of warming.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projected changes in extreme rainfall and temperature events and possible implications for Cameroon's socio‐economic sectors

Tamoffo

Weber

Akinsanola

et al. 2023

Meteorological Applications

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Extreme events like flooding, droughts and heatwave are among the factors causing huge socio‐economic losses to Cameroonians. Investigating the potential response of rainfall and temperature extremes to global warming is therefore critically needed for tailoring and adjusting the country's policies. Recent datasets have been developed for this purpose within the Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORDEX‐CORE) initiative, at ~25 km grid spacing. These regional climate models were used to dynamically downscaled four global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), under the optimistic and pessimistic representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5, respectively. These models were employed in this study for characterizing the response of Cameroon's extreme precipitation and temperature events to global warming, using seven indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. Under global warming, the maximum number of consecutive dry (wet) days' is expected to increase (decrease). However, the annual total rainfall amount is expected to increase, mainly due to the intensification of very wet days and daily rainfall intensity. Furthermore, the temperature‐based indices reveal an increase (decrease) in the total annual hot (cold) days, and overall, changes intensify with increased radiative forcing. The high‐mitigated low‐emission pathway RCP2.6 features attenuated changes, and even sometimes adapts to reverse the sign of changes. Designing reliable policies to limit the risks associated with the above changes is required, as their socio‐economic consequences are likely to include food insecurity, heat‐related illness, population impoverishment, price rises and market instability.

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Section: Possible Implications For Socio‐economic Sectorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected changes in extreme rainfall and temperature events and possible implications for Cameroon's socio‐economic sectors

Tamoffo

Weber

Akinsanola

et al. 2023

Meteorological Applications

Self Cite

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“…Although our study focuses on population exposure to record-breaking extreme events and our results cannot be compared directly to previous work performed at the global or regional scales, the population exposure hotspots identified in this study mostly correspond to areas with high population exposure to extreme events, such as CAF, SAS, and EAS in previous studies (Fotso-Nguemo et al, 2023;Iyakaremye et al, 2021;Kumar & Mishra, 2020;W. Zhang & Zhou, 2020;Zhao et al, 2021).…”

Section: Main Findings and Significancementioning

confidence: 72%

“…Park & Jeong, 2022; C. Yin et al., 2022) and precipitation or fluvial flooding (Alfieri et al., 2017; H. Chen & Sun, 2021; Hirabayashi et al., 2013; Yamazaki et al., 2018) under different scenarios based on general circulation model (GCM) simulations (mainly Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 [CMIP6] data) at the global scale. Moreover, regional‐scale studies have been carried out in areas with high vulnerability and dense populations such as South Asia (SAS) (Kumar & Mishra, 2020; Zhao et al., 2021), East Asia (EAS) (W. Zhang & Zhou, 2020), North America (Jones et al., 2015; Swain et al., 2020), and Africa (Fotso‐Nguemo et al., 2023; Iyakaremye et al., 2021). Considering that isolated studies of individual hazards performed through climate risk assessment may underestimate the amplifying effects of multiple extreme event combinations, some studies have been conducted to explore population exposure to compound events (AghaKouchak et al., 2020; Das et al., 2022; Raymond et al., 2020; Ridder et al., 2022; Wang et al., 2020; J. Yin et al., 2023; G. Zhang et al., 2022; Zscheischler et al., 2018), suggesting that under the impact of climate change, increasing numbers of people will be affected by different climate extremes, even compound events.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Global Population Exposure to Record‐Breaking Climate Extremes

Li,

Liu,

Wang

et al. 2023

Earth's Future

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The increase in record‐breaking extreme events caused by climate change poses a threat to human health and well‐being. Understanding the future impacts of such events on global populations can provide decision‐making support for policies aiming to mitigate climate change. Here, we investigated the population exposure to eight climate extreme indices and drivers of exposure trajectories based on National Aeronautics and Space Administration Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 and population projection data under four shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios at a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25°. The results show that by the mid‐twenty‐first century, most regions worldwide, especially Africa and South America, will continue to experience record‐breaking temperatures and compound drought and heatwaves (CDHWs). Regarding population exposure, under SSP3‐7.0 in the late twenty‐first century, the mean value of the multimodel median expected annual exposure (EAE) of all extreme temperature indices and CDHW reaches 8.12 billion persons per year. Population exposure hotspots will be concentrated in Central Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and East Asia, mostly in developing countries, where 55.01%–87.42% of the EAE is found. The drivers of exposure trajectories are spatially heterogeneous. The increase in record‐breaking probability contributes more than population growth to EAE growth in most regions of the world except Central Asia, the Middle East, and most of Africa. These findings reveal the future trajectories of record‐breaking probabilities and population exposures for climate extremes, which can inform understanding of the intersections between climate change and population change and future risk management.

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“…They also highlighted that future exposure to dangerous heat will be determined mainly by demographic changes alone or by combined climate and population changes, although the diversity of projected results could be attributed to the uncertainty in climate model simulations and population modelling approaches. In the same vein, using both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, Fotso‐Nguemo et al (2023) found that by the end of the 21st century, global warming is expected to lead to a substantial increase in the area extent affected by heat stress across Africa, underlining the need for urgent adaptation and mitigation policies for countries.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Projected changes in extreme precipitation and temperature events over Central Africa from COSMO‐CLM simulations under the global warming level of 1.5°C and above

Fotso‐Nguemo

Diallo

Nyanchi

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This study explores the response of the increased global warning levels (GWLs) on the spatio‐temporal characteristics of extreme precipitation and temperature events over Central Africa (CA). For this purpose, eight indices proposed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices have been computed based on an ensemble‐mean of simulations from the COnsortium for Small‐scale MOdelling in CLimate Mode (CCLM) regional climate model, under the Representative Concentration Pathways scenario RCP8.5. The ability of CCLM to represent the climatology of considered daily hydro‐climatic extreme indices related to both precipitation and temperature was also assessed. The results showed that despite the presence of some biases, the precipitation and temperature indices are satisfactorily represented by CCLM, with some notable improvements compared to the GCMs driving fields. The climate change signals under 1.5°C GWL threshold show mostly increases (decreases) in SDII, CDD, R95PTOT, T10, T90, WSDI, and DTR (RR1) over CA throughout the year, and these effects intensify towards a warmer world. Singularly, the strongest changes in these extreme events are generally recorded during the JJA season over the northern part of CA. The results also show on one hand a widespread decrease in mean precipitation (up to 2 mm · day−1 corresponding to ~50%) associated with the increase/decrease in CDD/RR1, and on the other hand an increase in mean temperatures (up to 4°C corresponding to ~18%) associated with the increase in both lowest and highest temperatures (T10, T90). This study suggests that the CA region will be prone to droughts and floods as well as heat waves in a warmer world and calls for climate action and adaptation strategies to mitigate the risks associated with the above changes on rain‐fed agriculture, water resource, and human health.

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Projected Impact of Increased Global Warming on Heat Stress and Exposed Population Over Africa

Cited by 25 publications

References 61 publications

Projected changes in extreme rainfall and temperature events and possible implications for Cameroon's socio‐economic sectors

Projected changes in extreme rainfall and temperature events and possible implications for Cameroon's socio‐economic sectors

Future Global Population Exposure to Record‐Breaking Climate Extremes

Projected changes in extreme precipitation and temperature events over Central Africa from COSMO‐CLM simulations under the global warming level of 1.5°C and above

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