Projected Impacts of Climate Change Scenarios on the Production of Maize in Southern Africa: An Integrated Assessment Case Study of the Bethlehem District, Central Free State, South Africa

Beletse, Y.G.; Durand, Wiltrud; Nhemachena, Charles; Crespo, Olivier; Tesfuhuney, Weldemichael A.; Jones, Michael B.; Teweldemedhin, M.Y.; Gamedze, Sunshine; Bonolo, P.M.; Jonas, Serge; Walker, Sue; Gwimbi, Patrick; Mpuisang, T.N.; Cammarano, Davide; Valdivia, Roberto O.

doi:10.1142/9781783265640_0016

Cited by 11 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…APSIM has been intensively experimented with within Australia, including in South Western Australia, which is often highlighted as having significant similarities with Southern Africa. This can account for its use in several modelling studies, such as the on-going modelling efforts in southern Africa [16,112]. The model has been calibrated by Masikati et al [113], who used it with confidence in conducting an exante analysis of alternative management strategies aimed at improving systems productivity.…”

Section: Table 1 Guidelines In Assessing the Validity And Reliability...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Challenges and opportunities in crop simulation modelling under seasonal and projected climate change scenarios for crop production in South Africa

2021

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A broad scope of crop models with varying demands on data inputs is being used for several purposes, such as possible adaptation strategies to control climate change impacts on future crop production, management decisions, and adaptation policies. A constant challenge to crop model simulation, especially for future crop performance projections and impact studies under varied conditions, is the unavailability of reliable historical data for model calibrations. In some cases, available input data may not be in the quantity and quality needed to drive most crop models. Even when a suitable choice of a crop simulation model is selected, data limitations hamper some of the models’ effective role for projections. To date, no review has looked at factors inhibiting the effective use of crop simulation models and complementary sources for input data in South Africa. This review looked at the barriers to crop simulation, relevant sources from which input data for crop models can be sourced, and proposed a framework for collecting input data. Results showed that barriers to effective simulations exist because, in most instances, the input data, like climate, soil, farm management practices, and cultivar characteristics, were generally incomplete, poor in quality, and not easily accessible or usable. We advocate a hybrid approach for obtaining input data for model calibration and validation. Recommended methods depending on the intended outputs and end use of model results include remote sensing, field, and greenhouse experiments, secondary data, engaging with farmers to model actual on-farm conditions. Thus, employing more than one method of data collection for input data for models can reduce the challenges faced by crop modellers due to the unavailability of data. The future of modelling depends on the goodness and availability of the input data, the readiness of modellers to cooperate on modularity and standardization, and potential user groups’ ability to communicate.

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Section: Table 1 Guidelines In Assessing the Validity And Reliability...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Challenges and opportunities in crop simulation modelling under seasonal and projected climate change scenarios for crop production in South Africa

2021

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“…These assessments have revealed that climate change places additional stress on smallholder farmers in both Sub‐Saharan Africa and South Asia, with differing outcomes observed within each specific region examined. Rising temperatures are anticipated in all of these locations, whereas decreased rainfall is projected for the western part of West Africa (Adiku et al, 2015) and southern Africa (Beletse et al, 2015). In contrast, increased rainfall is expected for eastern West Africa (Adiku et al, 2015).…”

Section: Climate Change Food Safety Nutrition and Health Outcomes Nexusmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating climate change, food safety, nutrition, and health outcomes in food systems policies and programs in Africa

Assoua,

Bomdzele,

Omosehin

et al. 2024

World Food Policy

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Integrating climate change, food safety, nutrition, and health outcomes in food systems policies and programs is crucial for addressing the multifaceted challenges African countries encounter. Climate change significantly impacts food production, food safety, and the provision of nutritious and healthy diets. Existing interventionist policies in Africa have not taken a comprehensive approach to addressing the bidirectional relationships among climate change, food safety, nutrition, and health outcomes. This hinders the formulation of comprehensive policies and programs that effectively address these interconnected issues. Also, limited evidence supports understanding the interplay among climate change, food safety, nutrition, and health outcomes within the African context. Thus, the study explores the pathways of interlinkages and complementarities among these factors and identifies the barriers to their effective implementation. In achieving its objective, this study adopts a food systems approach to examine the interrelaionships among climate change, food safety, nutrition, and health programs and policies. The study uses a comprehensive analysis of existing literature and empirical data to better understand these interrelationships within the food system. By identifying the interdependencies, the study is relevant for the development of integrative policies and programs that address these interconnected issues.Á

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“…Next, RAPs were evaluated for how global price changes and local climate shifts would create divergent impacts on regional households. In the case of Bethlehem, South Africa (Beletse et al, 2014) climate change scenarios predicted yield losses and associated revenue losses of 3-27% per farm. However, adaptation scenarios that included advancements in agricultural technology (e.g., improved seeds and fertilizers) increased yields 13-22% and decreased poverty 12-22%.…”

Section: Modeling Agricultural Impacts Across Time Horizonsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrologic and Agricultural Earth Observations and Modeling for the Water-Food Nexus

McNally

McCartney

Ruane

et al. 2019

Front. Environ. Sci.

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In a globalizing and rapidly-developing world, reliable, sustainable access to water and food are inextricably linked to each other and basic human rights. Achieving security and sustainability in both requires recognition of these linkages, as well as continued innovations in both science and policy. We present case studies of how Earth observations are being used in applications at the nexus of water and food security: crop monitoring in support of G20 global market assessments, water stress early warning for USAID, soil moisture monitoring for USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service, and identifying food security vulnerabilities for climate change assessments for the UN and the UK international development agency. These case studies demonstrate that Earth observations are essential for providing the data and scalability to monitor relevant indicators across space and time, as well as understanding agriculture, the hydrological cycle, and the water-food nexus. The described projects follow the guidelines for co-developing useable knowledge for sustainable development policy. We show how working closely with stakeholders is essential for transforming NASA Earth observations into accurate, timely, and relevant information for water-food nexus decision support. We conclude with recommendations for continued efforts in using Earth observations for addressing the water-food nexus and the need to incorporate the role of energy for improved food and water security assessments.

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Projected Impacts of Climate Change Scenarios on the Production of Maize in Southern Africa: An Integrated Assessment Case Study of the Bethlehem District, Central Free State, South Africa

Cited by 11 publications

References 30 publications

Challenges and opportunities in crop simulation modelling under seasonal and projected climate change scenarios for crop production in South Africa

Challenges and opportunities in crop simulation modelling under seasonal and projected climate change scenarios for crop production in South Africa

Integrating climate change, food safety, nutrition, and health outcomes in food systems policies and programs in Africa

Hydrologic and Agricultural Earth Observations and Modeling for the Water-Food Nexus

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