Projected increase in lightning strikes in the United States due to global warming

Romps, David M.; Seeley, Jacob T.; Vollaro, David; Molinari, John

doi:10.1126/science.1259100

Cited by 498 publications

(472 citation statements)

References 38 publications

(59 reference statements)

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“…For example, the fuel aridity metrics that we used may not adequately capture the role of mountain snow hydrology on soil moisture. Nor do we account for the influence of climate change on lightning activity, which may increase with warming (40). We also do not account for how fire risk may be affected by changes in biomass/fuel due to increases in atmospheric CO 2 (41), drought-induced vegetation mortality (42), or insect outbreaks (43).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests

Abatzoglou

Williams

2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

2,138

1,435

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Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000-2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ∼55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984-2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting.wildfire | climate change | attribution | forests W idespread increases in fire activity, including area burned (1, 2), number of large fires (3), and fire-season length (4, 5), have been documented across the western United States (US) and in other temperate and high-latitude ecosystems over the past half century (6, 7). Increased fire activity across western US forests has coincided with climatic conditions more conducive to wildfire (2-4, 8). The strong interannual correlation between forest fire activity and fire-season fuel aridity, as well as observed increases in vapor pressure deficit (VPD) (9), fire danger indices (10), and climatic water deficit (CWD) (11) over the past several decades, present a compelling argument that climate change has contributed to the recent increases in fire activity. Previous studies have implicated anthropogenic climate change (ACC) as a contributor to observed and projected increases in fire activity globally and in the western United States (12-19), yet no studies have quantified the degree to which ACC has contributed to observed increases in fire activity in western US forests.Changes in fire activity due to climate, and ACC therein, are modulated by the co-occurrence of changes in land management and human activity that influence fuels, ignition, and suppression. The legacy of twentieth century fire suppression across western continental US forests contributed to increased fuel loads and fire potential in many locations (20,21), ...

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mentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests

Abatzoglou

Williams

2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

2,138

1,435

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“…3;Montoya et al 2011). Similarly, recent data (Veraverbeke et al 2017) and modelling (Romps et al 2014) also suggest that lightning frequency and lightning-caused wildfires are associated with current global warming. Furthermore, we know that the major cold (glacial) and warm (interglacial) oscillations (and the shorter-term variations within these) that occurred in the Pleistocene clearly resulted in changes in temperature, humidity, and plant biomass and moisture: this has been abundantly documented in the paleontological, palynological, and geological record of Western Europe (e.g., de Beaulieu and Reille 1989;Discamps 2014;Discamps et al 2011;Goni et al 2008;Genty 2008;Guiot et al 1993; Laville 1975; Reille and De Beaulieu 1990;Tzedakis 1994;Woillard 1978).…”

Section: Do Lightning-caused Wildfires Vary With Climate?mentioning

confidence: 89%

Were Western European Neandertals Able to Make Fire?

et al. 2018

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Significant variability has been observed in the frequency of fire use over the course of the Late Pleistocene at several Middle Paleolithic sites in southwest France. In particular, Neandertals appear to have used fire more frequently during warm climatic periods and very infrequently during cold periods. After reviewing several lines of evidence and alternative explanations for this variability, the null hypothesis that these Neandertals were not able to make fire still stands.

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“…Projections [8][12] [13] suggest that lightning events are likely to occur more frequently in the UK, due to an increase in days with stronger convection, this would lead to an increase in the number of faults due to lightning. However, as noted above, the circuit outage duration associated with a lightning related fault is typically very short.…”

Section: B Faults Due To Lightningmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and temporal clustering of fault events on the GB transmission network

Morris

Bell

Elders

2016

2016 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS)

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Abstract-The UK is subject to changing weather patterns due to the global process of climate change. The full extent of these changes is not currently known; however, it is possible that the UK will be subject to more extreme or more frequent severe weather events (or both). As 50% of the faults on the transmission network in Britain are weather related it is likely that any change in weather patterns for the worse would increase the number of faults the network experiences. This paper describes a review of fault records in one region of the UK in order to understand the potential impact on system operation of clusters of weather related network faults. Based on the patterns of identified clusters, it suggests some potential impacts of climate change.

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Projected increase in lightning strikes in the United States due to global warming

Cited by 498 publications

References 38 publications

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests

Were Western European Neandertals Able to Make Fire?

Spatial and temporal clustering of fault events on the GB transmission network

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