Projected increase in windstorm severity and contribution from sting jets over the UK and Ireland

Manning, Colin; Kendon, Elizabeth J.; Fowler, Hayley J.; Roberts, Nigel

doi:10.1016/j.wace.2023.100562

Cited by 8 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 74 publications

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“…However, for this study a key requirement was the availability of corresponding hydrological model simulations created in [31], which were not available for the 2.2 km model. Manning et al [33] show that the 12 km and 2.2 km simulations are largely similar except over orography, which is not the focus of this study (as there are rarely large exposure centres here). However, exploring these results in the 2.2 km convection permitting UKCP18 simulations would be an excellent topic for future work.…”

Section: Climate Datamentioning

confidence: 76%

“…Figure 4 shows the 20-year mean October-March seasonal cycles for key meteorological variables used to generate SSI and FSI. Little change is seen in daily max GB-aggregate wind gusts in the future period, with the timeseries being dominated by climate variability (although we note that extreme wind gusts have been shown to increase in 2.2 km spatial resolution UKCP18 simulations, [33]). For precipitation there are notable increases in rainfall from December-February in the future period, which could explain some of the increases in FSI days.…”

Section: Precursors To Compound Eventsmentioning

confidence: 82%

“…Recent results from [26,27,33] show there are potential issues with the ability of the 12 km UKCP18 simulations to capture extreme precipitation and wind gusts respectively, when compared to the UKCP18 2.2 km convection permitting simulations. However, for this study a key requirement was the availability of corresponding hydrological model simulations created in [31], which were not available for the 2.2 km model.…”

Section: Climate Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This is particularly interesting for SSI, as overall we see a 9% reduction in SSI days, here we see it is possible to have much more extreme seasonal SSIs than in the historical period. This may be due to the increased likelihood of sting jets forming in future wind storms [33] which lead to localised intense wind gusts or due to changes in convective storm dynamics [48].…”

Section: Seasonal Occurrences Of Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Synoptic conditions conducive for compound wind-flood events in Great Britain in present and future climates

Bloomfield,

Bates,

Shaffrey

et al. 2024

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Extreme wind is the main driver of loss in North-West Europe, with flooding being the second-highest driver. These hazards are currently modelled independently, and it is unclear what the contribution of their co-occurrence is to loss. They are often associated with extra-tropical cyclones, with studies focusing on co-occurrence of extreme meteorological variables. However, there has not been a systematic assessment of the meteorological drivers of the co-occurring \textit{impacts} of compound wind-flood events. This study quantifies this using an established storm severity index (SSI) and recently developed flood severity index (FSI), applied to the UKCP18 12km regional climate simulations, and a Great Britain (GB) focused hydrological model. The meteorological drivers are assessed using 30 weather types, which are designed to capture a broad spectrum of GB weather. Daily extreme compound events (exceeding 99th percentile of both SSI and FSI) are generally associated with cyclonic weather patterns, often from the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO+) and Northwesterly classifications. Extreme compound events happen in a larger variety of weather patterns in a future climate. The location of extreme precipitation events shifts southward towards regions of increased exposure. The risk of extreme compound events increases almost four-fold in the UKCP18 simulations (from 14 events in the historical period, to 55 events in the future period). It is also more likely for there to be multi-day compound events. At seasonal timescales years tend to be either flood-prone or wind-damage-prone. In a future climate there is a larger proportion of years experiencing extreme seasonal SSI and FSI totals. This could lead to increases in reinsurance losses if not factored into current modelling.

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Section: Climate Datamentioning

confidence: 76%

Section: Precursors To Compound Eventsmentioning

confidence: 82%

Section: Climate Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Seasonal Occurrences Of Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Synoptic conditions conducive for compound wind-flood events in Great Britain in present and future climates

Bloomfield,

Bates,

Shaffrey

et al. 2024

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of windstorms [63,64], and human factors contribute to an increased likelihood of extreme weather events occurring simultaneously [65], which will enhance momentum transfer at the air-water interface of lakes and deepen the mixing layer. Precipitation resulting from these storms leads to dilution effects, influx of organic matter, and decreased turbidity, which can cause changes in stratification [66] and increased greenhouse gas emissions under flood conditions [67].…”

Section: The Impact Of Climate Change On Thermal Stratificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Challenge to Lake Ecosystems: Changes in Thermal Structure Triggered by Climate Change

Zhang,

Shen,

et al. 2024

Water

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Human activities, global warming, frequent extreme weather events, and changes in atmospheric composition affect the solar radiation reaching the Earth’s surface, affect mass and heat transfer at the air–water interface, and induce oscillations in wind-driven internal waves. This leads to changes in the spatiotemporal characteristics of thermal stratification in lakes, altering lake circulation patterns and vertical mass transfer. However, thermal stratification structures are often overlooked. The intensification of lake thermal stratification due to warming may lead to increased release of bottom pollutants, spreading through the dynamic behavior of the thermocline to the epilimnion. Moreover, the increased heat storage is beneficial for the growth and development of certain phytoplankton, resulting in rapid transitions of the original steady state of lakes. Consequently, water quality deterioration, ecological degradation, and declining biodiversity may occur. Conventional surface water monitoring may not provide comprehensive, accurate, and timely assessments. Model simulations can better predict future thermal stratification behaviors, reducing financial burdens, providing more refined assessments, and thus preventing subsequent environmental issues.

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Improved Understanding and Characterisation of Climate Hazards in the UK

Catto,

Brown,

Barnes

et al. 2023

Quantifying Climate Risk and Building Resilience in the UK

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This chapter describes new methods and datasets, developed through UK Climate Resilience Programme (UKCR) projects, to better understand climate hazards. We describe projections of hazards using new tools and provide examples of applications for decision-making. Going forward, this new physical and statistical understanding should be incorporated into climate risk assessments.

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Projected increase in windstorm severity and contribution from sting jets over the UK and Ireland

Cited by 8 publications

References 74 publications

Synoptic conditions conducive for compound wind-flood events in Great Britain in present and future climates

Synoptic conditions conducive for compound wind-flood events in Great Britain in present and future climates

Challenge to Lake Ecosystems: Changes in Thermal Structure Triggered by Climate Change

Improved Understanding and Characterisation of Climate Hazards in the UK

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