Projected sea level rise in Florida

Walton, Todd L.

doi:10.1016/j.oceaneng.2007.02.003

Cited by 34 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…Updating the sealevel rise rates reported by Hine et al (1988) and Hicks and Debaugh (1983) with data through 2006 shows that the observed rate from the NOAA tide-gauge station is now about 4.5 times the radiocarbon-based rate reported in Hine et al (1988) and the gauge data reported by Hicks and Debaugh (1983). Further, the estimate for future sea-level rise for Cedar Key over the next 70 years is 3.6 mm/yr (Walton 2007), which could increase submergence greatly and accelerate oyster reef decline.…”

Section: What Factors Are Likely Driving Changes In Oyster Resources mentioning

confidence: 99%

Decadal changes in oyster reefs in the Big Bend of Florida's Gulf Coast

et al. 2011

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Abstract. Oyster reefs are among the world's most endangered marine habitats with an estimated 85% loss from historical levels worldwide. Oyster reefs offer diverse ecological and social services for people and natural environments; unfortunately, reefs are also highly sensitive to impairment from natural and human-induced disasters. Understanding the resilience of oyster reef communities to disturbance is key to developing effective conservation and restoration plans. Florida's Big Bend coastline (Gulf of Mexico coast from Crystal River to Apalachee Bay) supports large expanses of oyster reef habitat that have existed for thousands of years in a region that is one of the most pristine coastal zones in the continental US. We assessed trends in oyster habitat along the Big Bend region between 1982 and 2011 by examining changes in areal extent and distance of oyster reefs from shore. During our study period, we found a 66% net loss of oyster reef area (124.05 ha) with losses concentrated on offshore (88%), followed by nearshore (61%), and inshore reefs (50%). We also found that the spatial distribution of oyster reefs was moving inland. This rapid loss is likely a departure from historic geological succession. Multiple lines of evidence suggest that the primary mechanism for these observed losses in oyster reefs is reduced survival and recruitment, likely a result of decreased freshwater inputs which increases existing reef vulnerability to wave action and sea level rise. Once oyster reef substrate becomes unconsolidated and the nucleation site is lost, the regeneration of the oyster reef may not be reversible through natural processes. To test these predictions, we recommend restoration-based experiments to elicit the mechanisms of decline in order to foster longterm sustainability of estuarine habitat critical to oysters.

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Section: What Factors Are Likely Driving Changes In Oyster Resources mentioning

confidence: 99%

Decadal changes in oyster reefs in the Big Bend of Florida's Gulf Coast

et al. 2011

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“…The Lower Keys are effectively isolated from the Middle Keys by the 11 km Moser channel (Crouse 2005). From 1913 to 1990 sea level has risen at a rate of ∼2.4 cm per decade at Key West in the Lower Keys (Ross et al 1994), and recent data show the rate of SLR is increasing (Walton 2007). Because most of the land area in the Florida Keys is below 2 m (Ross et al 1992) and the highest elevation is 5.5 m, scenarios projected for SLR (Mitrovica et al 2009) indicate that most terrestrial habitat may be eliminated within the next century ( Fig.…”

Section: Study Sitementioning

confidence: 99%

Sinking ships: conservation options for endemic taxa threatened by sea level rise

et al. 2011

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Low-elevation islands face threats from sea level rise (SLR) and increased storm intensity. Evidence of endangered species' population declines and shifts in vegetation communities are already underway in the Florida Keys. SLR predictions indicate large areas of these habitats may be eliminated in the next century. Using the Florida Keys as a model system, we present a process for evaluating conservation options for rare and endemic taxa. Considering species characteristics and habitat, we assess central issues that influence conservation options. We contrast traditional and controversial options for two animal and two plant species giving special emphasis to perceptions of ecological risk and safety from SLR and suggest courses of action. Multiple strategies will be required to spread extinction risk and will be effective for different time periods. Global climate change presents an uncertain, perhaps no-analog future that will challenge land managers and practitioners to re-evaluate equilibrium-state-conceived laws and policies not only for these taxa, but for many facing similar threats. To embrace conservation in a changing world will require a new dialogue that includes controversial ideas, a review of existing laws and policies, and preparation for the oncoming change.

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“…The target year of this study is set as the year of 2060 which is also the year of the long-range Florida transportation plan. Based on historical SLR data, Walton (2006) adopts a nonlinear forecasting approach and gives the SLR projection in St Petersburg, Florida at the year 2080. However, as a result of the combined effects of global temperature increase and land subsidence, the Federal Highway Administration (2010) projects a SLR of 2-4 feet over next 50-100 years for the Gulf of Mexico.…”

Section: Overview Of Datamentioning

confidence: 99%