Projected Shifts in Bird Distribution in India under Climate Change

Abstract

Global climate change is causing unprecedented impacts on biodiversity. In India, there is little information available regarding how climate change affects biodiversity at the taxon/group level, and large-scale ecological analyses have been lacking. In this study, we demonstrated the applicability of eBird and GBIF (Global Biodiversity Information Facility), and produced national-scale forecasts to examine the possible impacts of climate change on terrestrial avifauna in India. Using data collected by citizen scientists, we developed fine-tuned Species Distribution Models (SDMs) and predicted 1091 terrestrial bird species that would be distributed in India by 2070 on two climatic surfaces (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), using Maximum Entropy-based species distribution algorithms. Of the 1091 species modelled, our findings indicate that 66–73% of bird species in India will shift to higher elevations or shift northward, and 58–59% of bird species (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) would lose a portion of their distribution ranges. Furthermore, distribution ranges of 41–40% of bird species would increase. Under both RCP scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), bird species diversity will significantly increase in regions above 2500 m in elevation. Both RCP scenarios predict extensive changes in the species richness of the western Himalayas, Sikkim, northeast India, and the western Ghats regions by 2070. This study has resulted in novel, high-resolution maps of terrestrial bird species richness across India, and we predict predominantly northward shifts in species ranges, similar to predictions made for avifauna in other regions, such as Europe and the USA.

Unraveling the unknown: Adaptive spatial planning to enhance climate resilience for the endangered Swamp Grass-babbler (Laticilla cinerascens) with habitat connectivity and complexity approach

“…Over the past century, there has been a significant surge in the rates of species extinction, marking the onset of the planet's sixth mass extinction event, primarily driven by anthropogenic activities and climate change [ 76 ]. The escalation in temperatures has the potential to amplify these issues, leading to further declines in species populations, reductions in their geographic ranges, and spatiotemporal shifts in bird communities at the continental scale [ 6 , 44 , 77 ]. Therefore, safeguarding avian and other vertebrates' biodiversity has become a foremost objective aiming to support both ecosystems and human well-being, with a focus on research initiatives for lesser-known vulnerable species in order to facilitate effective conservation action strategies [ 55 , 78 , 79 ].…”

“…Astonishingly, the northeastern region of India is home to a remarkable diversity of 800 avian species, with expectations of further discoveries in the coming decades [ 5 ]. However, recent years have witnessed an alarming trend of escalating global biodiversity loss, leading to approximately 1400 bird species being at immediate risk of extinction [ 6 ]. Recent evidences also indicates that various taxonomic groups, including birds, are already responding to global warming [ [7] , [8] , [9] , [10] ].…”

Potential Range Map Dataset of Indian Birds

“…Inadequate awareness of the regional distribution of avian biodiversity impedes decision-making for bird conservation in India, which is one of the goals of making this data available. Authors have used this dataset to assess climate change impacts on Indian birds [78].…”

Impacts of Future Climate Change on the Distribution of Typical Endangered Bird Species in Beijing

“…No research has been published on the habitat requirements of typical Beijing Key Protected Wildlife List bird species threatened by climate change. Ciconia nigra is referred to as the "giant pandas of birds"; Mergus squamatus is known as the "national Due to objective reasons such as difficulty in obtaining data on the distribution points of threatened birds and large research scale, they have chosen to use the big data of bird distribution approved by bird experts [6]. However, no scholar has researched the habitat distribution of typical Beijing Key Protected Wild Animal List-listed endangered bird species under future climate dynamics.…”