Projected signals in climate extremes over China associated with a 2 °C global warming under two RCP scenarios

Abstract

Using daily output from 29 climate models provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, we project signals in 12 extreme temperature indices and 12 extreme precipitation indices relative to 1986–2005 over China associated with a 2 °C global warming above pre‐industrial levels under representative concentration pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5). The model output reflects the following projected changes: (1) It is robust and statistically significant that warm extremes are more frequent, more persistent, and more intense than those during the baseline period of 1986–2005, and local signals emerge from natural internal variability over most of China. In particular, southern China faces severe heat stress in summer based on warm extreme indices. (2) It is robust and statistically significant that there are fewer cold extremes in China. Most models show no significant changes in the longest duration and intensity of most cold extremes in southern China and northwest China. (3) The multi‐model median shows that more frequent and more intense wet extremes that deliver greater amounts of extreme precipitation occur in China, with a regional mean increase of 16.7–42.8 mm (8–42%) in total amount of annual wet extremes, but these changes are not significant and do not exceed natural internal variability over most of the country. Spatially, the Tibetan Plateau and northeast China have robust and significant changes in part of precipitation extremes, and some changes begin to emerge from natural internal variability at local scale. There are benefits to limiting global warming for China, including less frequent and less persistent warm extremes when comparing 1.5 °C with 2 °C of global warming and a later occurrence of significant changes in climate extremes when compared an intermediate mitigation scenario RCP4.5 with a high emission scenario RCP8.5.

Projected changes in autumn rainfall over West China: Results from an ensemble of dynamical downscaling simulations

“…As documented in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2013), in the context of future warming, the contrast in precipitation between wet and dry regions will be enlarged; extreme precipitation events will very likely become more intense and more frequent over most of the mid-latitude continents. The precipitation and related extremes in China region also show great sensitivity to the climate warming (e.g., Li et al, 2011;Wang et al, 2012;Xu and Xu, 2012;Chen, 2013;Chen andSun, 2013, 2014;Sun and Ao, 2013;Zhou et al, 2014Zhou et al, , 2016Sui et al, 2015Sui et al, , 2018Wu et al, 2015;Guo et al, 2016;Zou and Zhou, 2017;Zhang et al, 2018b). Under different representative concentration pathways (RCPs), increases in mean precipitation as well as more frequent and more intense precipitation extremes are anticipated for China by the end of this century (e.g., Wang et al, 2012;Xu and Xu, 2012;Chen, 2013;Chen and Sun, 2013;Zhou et al, 2014;Wang et al, 2017;Xu et al, 2018).…”

Additional Intensification of Seasonal Heat and Flooding Extreme Over China in a 2°C Warmer World Compared to 1.5°C

“…Similarly, King et al (2017) evaluated the effects of different levels of warming on large-scale climate extremes that have occurred in Australia. Some recent studies also explored the changes in mean climate and climate extremes under different levels of global warming using the RCP scenario simulations (e.g., Jiang et al, 2016;Sui et al, 2018;Wang, Jiang, & Lang 2017). Some recent studies also explored the changes in mean climate and climate extremes under different levels of global warming using the RCP scenario simulations (e.g., Jiang et al, 2016;Sui et al, 2018;Wang, Jiang, & Lang 2017).…”

Comparison of extreme temperature response to 0.5 °C additional warming between dry and humid regions over East–central Asia

“…The trend in the TR is similar to that in the SU, but under more demanding conditions, the variations are smaller both temporally and spatially. Sui et al () pointed out that the occurrence of SU and TR last almost the entire summer in China under 2 °C warming limits. More than 6 and 11% of the increases in SU and TR could be reduced if we limit global warming to 1.5 °C (Li et al , ).…”

“…For warm indices, a large change in the SU occurs in the HA such as East China, Southeast Asia, and South India, which is 20 days/year larger in the 1.5 C scenario relative to the historical period and 10 days/year larger under additional 0.5 C warming from 1.5 to 2 C. The trend in the TR is similar to that in the SU, but under more demanding conditions, the variations are smaller both temporally and spatially. Sui et al (2018) pointed out that the occurrence of SU and TR last almost the entire summer in China under 2 C warming limits. More than 6 and 11% of the increases in SU and TR could be reduced if we limit global warming to 1.5 C (Li et al, 2018b).…”