Projecting COVID-19 Mortality as States Relax Nonpharmacologic Interventions

Linas, Benjamin P.; Xiao, Jade; Dalgıç, Özden O.; Mueller, Peter P.; Adee, Madeline; Aaron, Alec; Ayer, Turgay; Chhatwal, Jagpreet

doi:10.1001/jamahealthforum.2022.0760

Cited by 18 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…A systematic review by Brito and coworkers reported that some less disruptive NPIs, such as mask wearing requirements, were also effective [ 50 ]. It is worth noting, then, that while vaccinations are the most effective tool in reducing cases and deaths, NPIs can still provide a useful safety net [ 51 , 52 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Higher COVID-19 Vaccination Rates Are Associated with Lower COVID-19 Mortality: A Global Analysis

Hoxha

Agahi²,

Bimbashi³

et al. 2022

Vaccines

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Mass vaccination initiatives are underway worldwide, and a considerable percentage of the world’s population is now vaccinated. This study examined the association of COVID-19 deaths per 1000 cases with a fully vaccinated population. The global median deaths per 1000 cases were 15.68 (IQR 9.84, 25.87) after 6 months of vaccinations and 11.96 (IQR 6.08, 20.63) after 12 months. Across 164 countries, we found significant variations in vaccination levels of populations, booster doses, and mortality, with higher vaccine coverage and lower mortality in high-income countries. Several regression models were performed to test the association between vaccination and COVID-19 mortality. Control variables were used to account for confounding variables. A 10-percentage-point increase in vaccination was associated with an 18.1% decrease in mortality after 6 months (95%CI, 7.4–28.8%) and a 16.8% decrease after 12 months (95%CI, 6.9–26.7%). A 10-percentage-point increase in booster vaccination rates was associated with a 33.1% decrease in COVID-19 mortality (95%CI, 16.0–50.2%). This relationship is present in most analyses by country income groups with variations in the effect size. Efforts are needed to reduce vaccine hesitancy while ensuring suitable infrastructure and supply to enable all countries to increase their vaccination rates.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Higher COVID-19 Vaccination Rates Are Associated with Lower COVID-19 Mortality: A Global Analysis

Hoxha

Agahi²,

Bimbashi³

et al. 2022

Vaccines

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“…Third, all countries should adopt a vaccines-plus approach, which includes a combination of COVID-19 vaccination, other prevention measures, treatment and financial incentives such as support measures. Infection rates tend to increase when governments discontinue social measures, including non-pharmaceutical interventions, regardless of the level of vaccination 57 , 58 .…”

Section: Top-ranked Consensus Recommendationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A multinational Delphi consensus to end the COVID-19 public health threat

Lazarus

Romero²,

Kopka³

et al. 2022

Nature

152

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Despite notable scientific and medical advances, broader political, socioeconomic and behavioural factors continue to undercut the response to the COVID-19 pandemic1,2. Here we convened, as part of this Delphi study, a diverse, multidisciplinary panel of 386 academic, health, non-governmental organization, government and other experts in COVID-19 response from 112 countries and territories to recommend specific actions to end this persistent global threat to public health. The panel developed a set of 41 consensus statements and 57 recommendations to governments, health systems, industry and other key stakeholders across six domains: communication; health systems; vaccination; prevention; treatment and care; and inequities. In the wake of nearly three years of fragmented global and national responses, it is instructive to note that three of the highest-ranked recommendations call for the adoption of whole-of-society and whole-of-government approaches1, while maintaining proven prevention measures using a vaccines-plus approach2 that employs a range of public health and financial support measures to complement vaccination. Other recommendations with at least 99% combined agreement advise governments and other stakeholders to improve communication, rebuild public trust and engage communities3 in the management of pandemic responses. The findings of the study, which have been further endorsed by 184 organizations globally, include points of unanimous agreement, as well as six recommendations with >5% disagreement, that provide health and social policy actions to address inadequacies in the pandemic response and help to bring this public health threat to an end.

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“…Finally, setting thresholds is complicated by the evolving relationship between epidemiologic indicators and outcomes ( 15–17 ). In the future, this evolution will continue to be driven in large part by features of new variants ( 18 ) but also by levels of increasing and decreasing immunity from infection and vaccination ( 19 ); development and delivery plans for updated vaccines ( 20 ); availability and uptake of testing and antiviral treatments ( 21 , 22 ); and changing policies and practices on preventive measures, such as masking, testing, and isolation and quarantine ( 23 ). In the context of uncertain and changing conditions, well-defined objectives are particularly important to allow efficient updating of metrics to accommodate this flux.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Performance of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention COVID-19 Community Levels as Leading Indicators of COVID-19 Mortality

Salomon

Bilinski

2022

Ann Intern Med

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Projecting COVID-19 Mortality as States Relax Nonpharmacologic Interventions

Abstract: This simulation modeling study projects COVID-19 deaths between March 1, 2022, and December 31, 2022, in each of the 50 US states, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico assuming different dates of lifting of mask mandates and nonpharmacologic interventions.

Cited by 18 publications

References 9 publications

Higher COVID-19 Vaccination Rates Are Associated with Lower COVID-19 Mortality: A Global Analysis

Higher COVID-19 Vaccination Rates Are Associated with Lower COVID-19 Mortality: A Global Analysis

A multinational Delphi consensus to end the COVID-19 public health threat

Evaluating the Performance of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention COVID-19 Community Levels as Leading Indicators of COVID-19 Mortality

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