Projecting flood hazard under climate change: an alternative approach to model chains

Delgado, José Miguel; Merz, Bruno; Apel, Heiko

doi:10.5194/nhess-14-1579-2014

Cited by 35 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…Climate indices (e.g. Delgado et al, 2014;Salas and Obeysekera, 2014) and extreme precipitation (e.g. Prosdocimi et al, 2014;Villarini et al, 2009) are more common.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Wilby and Quinn, 2013). Delgado et al (2014) modelled the scale parameter of a log-normal distribution as a function of the non-stationary standard deviation of an atmospheric circulation index representing Western Pacific monsoon activity. By evaluating a deviance statistic based on the log-likelihood of the parameter fit they found the non-stationary model to be a significant improvement over the stationary model for their case of the lower Mekong flood series.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The influence of non-stationarity in extreme hydrological events on flood frequency estimation

Šraj

Viglione

Parajka

et al. 2016

Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics

108

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Substantial evidence shows that the frequency of hydrological extremes has been changing and is likely to continue to change in the near future. Non-stationary models for flood frequency analyses are one method of accounting for these changes in estimating design values. The objective of the present study is to compare four models in terms of goodness of fit, their uncertainties, the parameter estimation methods and the implications for estimating flood quantiles. Stationary and non-stationary models using the GEV distribution were considered, with parameters dependent on time and on annual precipitation. Furthermore, in order to study the influence of the parameter estimation approach on the results, the maximum likelihood (MLE) and Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC) methods were compared. The methods were tested for two gauging stations in Slovenia that exhibit significantly increasing trends in annual maximum (AM) discharge series. The comparison of the models suggests that the stationary model tends to underestimate flood quantiles relative to the non-stationary models in recent years. The model with annual precipitation as a covariate exhibits the best goodness-of-fit performance. For a 10% increase in annual precipitation, the 10-year flood increases by 8%. Use of the model for design purposes requires scenarios of future annual precipitation. It is argued that these may be obtained more reliably than scenarios of extreme event precipitation which makes the proposed model more practically useful than alternative models.

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“…Climate indices (e.g. Delgado et al, 2014;Salas and Obeysekera, 2014) and extreme precipitation (e.g. Prosdocimi et al, 2014;Villarini et al, 2009) are more common.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The influence of non-stationarity in extreme hydrological events on flood frequency estimation

Šraj

Viglione

Parajka

et al. 2016

Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics

108

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Delgado et al (2010Delgado et al ( , 2012Delgado et al ( , 2014 explore this avenue for the Lower Mekong River. They found that average floods have slightly decreased during the last few decades, but that the variability of the annual maximum floods has increased significantly.…”

Section: Low-dimensional Change Models For Flood Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding flood regime changes in Europe: a state-of-the-art assessment

Hall

Arheimer

Borga

et al. 2014

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

Self Cite

497

335

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Abstract. There is growing concern that flooding is becoming more frequent and severe in Europe. A better understanding of flood regime changes and their drivers is therefore needed. The paper reviews the current knowledge on flood regime changes in European rivers that has traditionally been obtained through two alternative research approaches. The first approach is the data-based detection of changes in observed flood events. Current methods are reviewed together with their challenges and opportunities. For example, observation biases, the merging of different data sources and accounting for nonlinear drivers and responses. The second approach consists of modelled scenarios of future floods. Challenges and opportunities associated with flood change scenarios are discussed such as fully accounting for uncertainties in the modelling cascade and feedbacks. To make progress in flood change research, we suggest that a synthesis of these two approaches is needed. This can be achieved by focusing on long duration records and flood-rich and flood-poor periods rather than on short duration flood trends only, by formally attributing causes of observed flood changes, by validating scenarios against observed flood regime dynamics, and by developing low-dimensional models of flood changes and feedbacks. The paper finishes with a call for a joint European flood change research network.

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“…For river gauges in the Mekong Basin, Delgado et al (2012) identify a statistical relationship between flood variance and the western Pacific monsoon variance. A non-stationary flood frequency model is developed in which the monsoon variance drives temporal changes in flood quantiles (Delgado et al, 2014). For climate change scenarios, the variance of the monsoon is extracted from GCM runs.…”

Section: Climate Change: Model Chain Versus Model-chainaugmented?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Floods and climate: emerging perspectives for flood risk assessment and management

Merz

Aerts

Arnbjerg‐Nielsen

et al. 2014

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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298

165

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Abstract. Flood estimation and flood management have traditionally been the domain of hydrologists, water resources engineers and statisticians, and disciplinary approaches abound. Dominant views have been shaped; one example is the catchment perspective: floods are formed and influenced by the interaction of local, catchment-specific characteristics, such as meteorology, topography and geology. These traditional views have been beneficial, but they have a narrow framing. In this paper we contrast traditional views with broader perspectives that are emerging from an improved understanding of the climatic context of floods. We come to the following conclusions: (1) extending the traditional system boundaries (local catchment, recent decades, hydrological/hydraulic processes) opens up exciting possibilities for better understanding and improved tools for flood risk assessment and management. (2) Statistical approaches in flood estimation need to be complemented by the search for the causal mechanisms and dominant processes in the Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. B. Merz et al.: Floods and climate: emerging perspectives for flood risk assessment and managementatmosphere, catchment and river system that leave their fingerprints on flood characteristics. (3) Natural climate variability leads to time-varying flood characteristics, and this variation may be partially quantifiable and predictable, with the perspective of dynamic, climate-informed flood risk management. (4) Efforts are needed to fully account for factors that contribute to changes in all three risk components (hazard, exposure, vulnerability) and to better understand the interactions between society and floods. (5) Given the global scale and societal importance, we call for the organization of an international multidisciplinary collaboration and datasharing initiative to further understand the links between climate and flooding and to advance flood research.

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Projecting flood hazard under climate change: an alternative approach to model chains

Cited by 35 publications

References 55 publications

The influence of non-stationarity in extreme hydrological events on flood frequency estimation

The influence of non-stationarity in extreme hydrological events on flood frequency estimation

Understanding flood regime changes in Europe: a state-of-the-art assessment

Floods and climate: emerging perspectives for flood risk assessment and management

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