Projecting Future Change in Growing Degree Days for Winter Wheat

Castillo, Natalie Ruiz; Ospina, C. F. Gaitan

doi:10.3390/agriculture6030047

Cited by 12 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 30 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Research findings indicate that a rise in the GDD index will reduce the future vegetation period, leading to shorter harvest maturity times. Various studies have revealed similar results for winter wheat in U.S. conditions (Ruiz Castillo & Gaitán Ospina, 2016), maize in Brazil conditions (Martins et al, 2019), and for cherries, apples, and wheat in Türkiye conditions (Şensoy, 2015;Turkoglu et al, 2016), as well as sunflower in the conditions of Türkiye (Gürkan, 2023;Gürkan et al, 2021). Changing climatic conditions highlight the need to adapt traditional farming practices.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 81%

Evaluation of temporal trends of growing degree days index for major crops in Türkiye

Gürkan,

Ekici,

Doğan

et al. 2024

Agronomy Journal

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate change, previously considered an environmental problem, has begun to be defined as a climate crisis since its effects intensify faster than previously thought, cause severe economic losses, and threaten food security. Climate indexes have been defined as the primary descriptive indicator to acquire a consistent perspective on observed and projected changes resulting from weather and climatic extremes. In this study, the growing degree days (GDD) index, one of the essential indicators in planning agricultural activities, was examined for wheat (Triticum aestivum), maize (Zea mays), and sunflowers (Helianthus anuus) across Türkiye. The GDD index was examined between 1971 and 2020 for the observed change analysis and between 2023 and 2098 for future projections. Three global climate models and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), that is, 4.5 and 8.5, were selected to assess climate change impact. The analysis of the entire observed period (1971–2020) indicated a considerable increasing trend in the annual total GDD index for wheat, except in the southeast of Türkiye, and maize and sunflower across the country. Assessment results of the climate projection analysis revealed that there would be increases over 1400 and 2300°C day/year for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, for all three crops considered. Additionally, the findings indicated further increases in the southern latitudes of Türkiye. Projection results also confirmed that there will be longer suitable periods for agricultural production, and the crop vegetation periods will be shorter and shift earlier in Türkiyein the future periods.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 81%

Evaluation of temporal trends of growing degree days index for major crops in Türkiye

Gürkan,

Ekici,

Doğan

et al. 2024

Agronomy Journal

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In summary, the Sahel region is expected to see a higher GDD up to 287, 321, and 249°C for the future, that is, an increase by approximately 12% compared to the historical period. Previous studies by Salack et al (); Ruiz Castillo and Gaitán Ospina () found that under climate change, higher temperatures will result in a more rapid accumulation of GDD and therefore a reduction of certain crop development phases and the growth cycle. As such, the increased temperatures and CO 2 concentrations will have negative impacts on crop yields for food‐insecure regions such as West Africa.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Performance Analysis and Projected Changes of Agroclimatological Indices Across West Africa Based on High‐Resolution Regional Climate Model Simulations

et al. 2018

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In this study, we analyze a set of agroclimatological indices across West Africa and assess their projected changes for the future. We apply the regional climate model CCLM (COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling in CLimate Mode) with a high spatial resolution of 0.11 ∘ (approximately 12 km) under current and future climate conditions, based on the emission scenario RCP4.5. The focus is on purely rainfall-based indices, that is, the onset (ORS), the cessation (CRS), and the length of the rainy season (LRS) and the joint rainfall-and temperature-based indices, that is, growing degree days (GDD) and the water availability (WAV), derived for maize, sorghum, and pearl millet across Guinea, Savanna, and Sahel. For the present, in general, the CCLM compares well to observations, represented by three different products. However, CCLM shows limitations in the representation of the CRS over Guinea with a delay of >30 days and the GDD and WAV over Sahel with biases up to 30% and 70% for all crops. For the future climate projections, ORS, CRS, and LRS are expected to be delayed up to 2 weeks for most regions, in particular for the period 2071-2100. The GDD is expected to increase by around 8% till 2021-2050 and by around 5% till 2071-2100 for all crops. The WAV is expected to be decreased by up to 10% in 2021-2050, and by up to 24% in 2071-2100 in Sahel, and <12% over Guinea and Savanna in both periods. In particular, we evaluate the added value of the high-resolution CCLM information for decision support in agricultural management. Key Points:• CCLM model results were evaluated in terms of agricultural indices for cropping of maize, sorghum, and pearl millet across three different agroecological zones in West Africa • High-resolution future climate projections indicate a shortening of the rainy seasons by approximately 2 weeks in the Sahel region till the end of the century • The projected decreases (increases) of rainfall (temperature) over the Sahel region would negatively impact on water availability (WAV) and growing degree days (GDD)

show abstract

“…The climatic variations play a vital role in crop development and growth but show a varying degree of relationship strength by season and location. A number of theoretical, modelling and empirical studies have already estimated the impacts of climate variability on crop yield fluctuation using different methodology and datasets at annual, seasonal and regional to national scales [39,98,100]. These studies suggested a range of climate variability impacts on crop production.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impacts of Climate Variability on Crop Yields and Irrigation Water Demand in South Asia

Ahmad

Biemans

Moors

et al. 2020

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Accurate (spatio-temporal) estimation of the crop yield relation to climate variables is essential in the densely populated Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra (IGB) river basins of South Asia for devising appropriate adaptation strategies to ensure regional food and water security. This study examines wheat (Triticum aestivum) and rice (Oryza sativa) crop yields’ sensitivity to primary climate variables (i.e., temperature and precipitation) and related changes in irrigation water demand at different spatial (i.e., province/state, districts and grid cell) and temporal (i.e., seasonal and crop growth phase) scales. To estimate the climate driven variations in crop yields, observed and modelled data applying the Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land (LPJmL) model are used for six selected study sites in the IGB river basins over the period 1981–2010. Our statistical analysis underscores the importance of impacts assessments at higher spatio-temporal scales. Our grid cell (aggregated over study sites) scale analysis shows that 27–72% variations in wheat and 17–55% in rice crop yields are linked with temperature variations at a significance level of p < 0.001. In the absence of irrigation application, up to 39% variations in wheat and up to 75% variations in rice crop yields are associated with precipitation changes in all study sites. Whereas, observed crop yields show weak correlations with temperature at a coarser resolution, i.e., up to 4% at province and up to 31% at district scales. Crop yields also showed stronger sensitivity to climate variables at higher temporal scale (i.e., vegetative and reproductive phases) having statistically strong negative relationship with temperature and positive with precipitation during the reproductive phase. Similarly, crop phase-specific variations in climate variables have considerable impacts (i.e., quantity and timing) on irrigation water demand. For improved crop water planning, we suggest integrated climate impact assessments at higher spatio-temporal scales which can help to devise appropriate adaptation strategies for sustaining future food demand.

show abstract

Projecting Future Change in Growing Degree Days for Winter Wheat

Cited by 12 publications

References 30 publications

Evaluation of temporal trends of growing degree days index for major crops in Türkiye

Evaluation of temporal trends of growing degree days index for major crops in Türkiye

Performance Analysis and Projected Changes of Agroclimatological Indices Across West Africa Based on High‐Resolution Regional Climate Model Simulations

The Impacts of Climate Variability on Crop Yields and Irrigation Water Demand in South Asia

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About