Projecting future distributions of ecosystem climate niches: Uncertainties and management applications

Wang, Tongli; Campbell, Elizabeth M.; O’Neill, Gregory A.; Aitken, Sally N.

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2012.05.034

Cited by 144 publications

(135 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…Our study predictions are in line with previous studies indicating that species in the northern hemispheres are expected to migrate to higher latitudes and elevations as the climate warms [10,83,84], therefore, it is essential to adjust seed zone protocols for the spatial and temporal dynamics associated with current climate change. For reforestation practitioners, providing information about climatic change impacts on species' suitable habitat distribution is essential for proper decision making.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

“…Our findings agree with previous projections, such as those made for Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) in British Columbia, Canada, where more dramatic expansion was projected as the northeastern boreal ecosystem climate transitioned to a climate suitable for interior Douglas-fir ecosystems [83]. Substantial expansion was also predicted for grasslands, dry forests, and moist continental cedar-hemlock forests in northwestern Canada in the future (2020s, 2050s, 2080s) [84]. P. orientalis is commonly used for ecological restoration in arid mountain landscapes of northern China, where the species is used for sand stabilization and soil erosion control.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

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Predicting Future Seed Sourcing of Platycladus orientalis (L.) for Future Climates Using Climate Niche Models

Wang

Liu

et al. 2017

Forests

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Climate niche modeling has been widely used to assess the impact of climate change on forest trees at the species level. However, geographically divergent tree populations are expected to respond differently to climate change. Considering intraspecific local adaptation in modeling species responses to climate change will thus improve the credibility and usefulness of climate niche models, particularly for genetic resources management. In this study, we used five Platycladus orientalis (L.) seed zones (Northwestern; Northern; Central; Southern; and Subtropical) covering the entire species range in China. A climate niche model was developed and used to project the suitable climatic conditions for each of the five seed zones for current and various future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). Our results indicated that the Subtropical seed zone would show consistent reduction for all climate change scenarios. The remaining seed zones, however, would experience various degrees of expansion in suitable habitat relative to their current geographic distributions. Most of the seed zones would gain suitable habitats at their northern distribution margins and higher latitudes. Thus, we recommend adjusting the current forest management strategies to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Predicting Future Seed Sourcing of Platycladus orientalis (L.) for Future Climates Using Climate Niche Models

Wang

Liu

et al. 2017

Forests

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“…Whilst there has been widespread use of climatic information to predict future distributions in species distribution models (SDMs, Pearson and Dawson 2003;Attorre et al 2008;Wang et al 2012;Ruiz-Labourdette et al 2013), understanding of the range of climatic and non-climatic factors that will determine the future range of a particular species remains limited. Many now feel that SDMs are of limited value in adaptation decision making or species conservation strategies.…”

Section: Species Responses To Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, precipitation alone is often not a good predictor of variation and there is often a strong interaction with temperature (Andalo et al 2005). Heat to moisture index or aridity is probably more important in determining future distribution or productivity than precipitation alone (Aitken et al 2008;Harper et al 2009;Wang et al 2012). Soil properties (depth, texture and organic matter content) have a major influence on plant-available water, but few SDMs incorporate these.…”

Section: Species Responses To Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts and adaptation in forest management: a review

Keenan

2015

Annals of Forest Science

483

303

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Abstract& Key message Adaptation of forest management to climate change requires an understanding of the effects of climate on forests, industries and communities; prediction of how these effects might change over time; and incorporation of this knowledge into management decisions. This requires multiple forms of knowledge and new approaches to forest management decisions. Partnerships that integrate researchers from multiple disciplines with forest managers and local actors can build a shared understanding of future challenges and facilitate improved decision making in the face of climate change.

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“…On the other side, ecology and biology are basic to weight and balance species' response, taking also into account the interaction of biotic versus abiotic factors, especially at the margins of the natural range (Guisan & Zimmermann, 2000) or for planted/introduced species (Isaac-Renton et al, 2014). In such a background, prediction of future impacts on forest ecosystems is an ensemble of climatic scenarios and adaptability of the species that must be considered in a holistic view and tackled under many different aspects (Trivedi et al, 2008) and mainly driven by uncertainties (Araújo et al, 2005;Wang et al, 2012).…”

Section: E) Geneticists Had Classified the Black Pine Of Villetta Bamentioning

confidence: 99%

Future scenarios and conservation strategies for a rear-edge marginal population of Pinus nigra Arnold in Italian central Apennines

Marchi¹,

Nocentini²,

Ducci³

2016

For. syst.

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Aim of the study: To forecast the effects of climate change on the spatial distribution of Black pine of Villetta Barrea in its natural range and to define a possible conservation strategy for the species Area of study: A rear-edge marginal population of Pinus nigra spp. nigra in Abruzzo region, central Italian Apennines Matherials and Methods: For its adaptive and genetic traits this population is considered endemic of the Italian peninsula and represents a rear-edge marginal population of nigra subspecies. The spatial distribution of the tree in the administrative Region (Abruzzo) was used to define the ecological traits while three modelling techniques (GLM, GAM, Random Forest) were used to build a Species distribution model according to two climatic scenarios.Main results: The marginal population's range was predicted to shift at higher elevations as consequence of climatic adaptation. Many zones, represented by the higher part of the mountains surrounding the study area (currently bare and inhospitable for trees), were identified as suitable in future for the species. However, in the case of a rapid climate change, this marginal population may not be able to move as fast as necessary. An in-situ adaptive management integrated with an assisted migration protocol might be considered to favour natural regeneration and improve the richness and variability of the genetic pool.Research highlights: Most of the genetic richness is held in small populations at the borders of natural distribution of forest species. Monitoring this MAP could be useful to understand the adaptive processes of the species and could support the future management of many other within-core populations.

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Projecting future distributions of ecosystem climate niches: Uncertainties and management applications

Cited by 144 publications

References 60 publications

Predicting Future Seed Sourcing of Platycladus orientalis (L.) for Future Climates Using Climate Niche Models

Predicting Future Seed Sourcing of Platycladus orientalis (L.) for Future Climates Using Climate Niche Models

Climate change impacts and adaptation in forest management: a review

Future scenarios and conservation strategies for a rear-edge marginal population of Pinus nigra Arnold in Italian central Apennines

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