Projecting future utilization of medically assisted fertility treatments

Raymer, James; Guan, Qing; Norman, Robert J.; Ledger, William; Chambers, Georgina M.

doi:10.1080/00324728.2019.1676461

Cited by 12 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Several stud ies have ana lyzed how indi vid u als' sub jec tive well-being changes before, upon, and after the birth of the first child (e.g., Clark and Georgellis 2013;Myrskylä and Margolis 2014). These stud ies did not con sider whether the effect of becom ing a par ent var ied according to the mode of con cep tion, which is an impor tant gap in knowl edge given that the uti li za tion of med i cally assisted repro duc tion has increased sub stan tially in recent decades and is projected to increase fur ther (Raymer et al 2020). Although the med i cal lit er a ture has exam ined the impact of MAR treat ment on cou ples' men tal health, very few stud ies have ana lyzed this asso ci a tion lon gi tu di nally and with respect to their lev els of men tal health before they expe ri enced subfertility.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Mental Health Around the Transition to First Birth: Does Medically Assisted Reproduction Matter?

Tosi

Goisis

2021

Demography

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Previous research has shown that childbearing is associated with short-term improvements in women's subjective well-being but that these effects depend on the timing and quantum of the birth as well as on the parents' education and socioeconomic status. These studies did not address whether and, if so, how this effect varies according to the mode of conception. This represents an important knowledge gap, given that conceptions through medically assisted reproduction (MAR) have been increasing rapidly in recent decades, exceeding 5% of live births in some European countries. Drawing on nine waves (2009/2010–2017/2018) of the UK Household Longitudinal Study, we use distributed fixed-effects linear regression models to examine changes in women's mental health before, during, and after natural and MAR conceptions. The results show that the mental health of women who conceived naturally improved around the time of conception and then gradually returned to baseline levels; comparatively, the mental health of women who conceived through MAR declined in the year before pregnancy and then gradually recovered. The findings also indicate that women's happiness decreased both two years and one year before an MAR conception and then increased above the baseline in the year of pregnancy. We further show that the deterioration in mental health and subjective well-being before an MAR conception affects both partners, which could be part of a longer process in which the partners potentially suffer from stress related not solely to the MAR treatments themselves but also to the experience of subfertility.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Mental Health Around the Transition to First Birth: Does Medically Assisted Reproduction Matter?

Tosi

Goisis

2021

Demography

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“…If applied to the current US TFR, this ART TFR would amount for 8% of the total TFR. This value was selected based upon the observed highest rates of ART births among European countries and future projections from other contexts (Calhaz-Jorge et al, 2017 ; Raymer et al, 2020 ; Sobotka et al, 2008 ). However, as observed in the results, the ART TFR remains below this level for all analyses.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, cohort-based projection analyses using Danish register data predicted an increase in ART use by birth cohort from 2.1% for the oldest cohort in the study (1965) up to 7% in later birth cohorts (Sobotka et al, 2008 ). In addition, Raymer et al ( 2020 ) recently used a cohort-component projection approach to estimate medically assisted births (from ART, IUI, and ovulation induction) in Australia taking into account rising educational attainment and success rates of these technologies. The study predicted ART cycles will increase between 34 and 61% by 2026, depending on model parameters of the success rates of ART, while IUI cycles and ovulation induction will decline.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…First, insurance access and coverage vary more in the US than other countries with centralized health insurance, and ART is often expensive even with insurance coverage (Katz et al, 2011 ; Wu et al, 2014 ). Second, the proportion of births due to ART is already higher in these other countries relative to the United States (Calhaz-Jorge et al, 2017 ; Raymer et al, 2020 ; Sunderam et al, 2019 ). Third, health disparities broadly by race and socioeconomic status are more varied in the US than many high-income peer countries (Woolf & Aron, 2013 ), and evidence of this stratification in outcomes from ART, number of ART births, and access to infertility treatments by race, and less commonly SES, has also been documented (e.g., Adashi & Dean, 2016 ; Humphries et al, 2016 ; Smith et al, 2011 ; Tierney & Cai, 2019 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Future of Assisted Reproductive Technology Live Births in the United States

Tierney

2022

Popul Res Policy Rev

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As postponement of first births continues in the United States, women and couples will likely continue to turn to assisted reproductive technologies (ART) to overcome biological barriers to childbearing. This paper uses stochastic projections to estimate the potential impacts of ART on the US total fertility rate (TFR) overall and across sociodemographic groups using publicly available data. Assuming the trends in ART continue and the TFR remains at the mean estimate, the projection shows the ART TFR will rise from 0.023 accounting for 1.29% of the mean projected TFR in 2020 to 0.048 or 2.64% of the TFR by 2040. However, for the TFR of women over 30, this percentage is estimated at 2.68% in 2020 and 5.60% by 2040. Group-level projections quantify stratification by parity, race, and education assuming trends across these groups continue. Overall, the results show that if current trends continue, growth in demand for ART will likely increase, especially at older maternal ages, even as inequalities by race and social class remain. These projections provide a picture of ART births if inequality in access and outcomes is not addressed and highlight the need for attention to policies that address these disparities.

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“…Recent projections indicate that the future contribution of ART to Australian births will likely continue to increase because of the compositional shifts in the female population away from low and medium education towards higher levels of educational attainment, characterized by a pattern of delayed childbearing (Raymer et al, 2019). However, the contribution of ART to the completed fertility of future cohorts remains unexplored and its influence on contemporary demographic processes, such as fertility postponement and recuperation, has not yet been studied in Australia and in other developed societies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting the Contribution of Assisted Reproductive Technology to Completed Cohort Fertility

Lazzari

Potančoková

Sobotka

et al. 2023

Popul Res Policy Rev

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Assisted reproductive technology (ART) is increasingly influencing the fertility trends of high-income countries characterized by a pattern of delayed childbearing. However, research on the impact of ART on completed fertility is limited and the extent to which delayed births are realized later in life through ART is not well understood. This study uses data from Australian fertility clinics and national birth registries to project the contribution of ART for cohorts of women that have not yet completed their reproductive life and estimate the role played by ART in the fertility ‘recuperation’ process. Assuming that the increasing trends in ART success rates and treatment rates continue, the projection shows that the contribution of ART-conceived births to completed fertility will increase from 2.1% among women born in 1968 to 5.7% among women born in 1986. ART is projected to substantially affect the extent to which childbearing delay will be compensated at older ages, suggesting that its availability may become an important factor in helping women to achieve their reproductive plans later in life.

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Projecting future utilization of medically assisted fertility treatments

Cited by 12 publications

References 30 publications

Mental Health Around the Transition to First Birth: Does Medically Assisted Reproduction Matter?

Mental Health Around the Transition to First Birth: Does Medically Assisted Reproduction Matter?

The Future of Assisted Reproductive Technology Live Births in the United States

Projecting the Contribution of Assisted Reproductive Technology to Completed Cohort Fertility

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