Projecting populations for major Pacific Island countries with and without COVID-19: pro-active insights for population policy

Abstract

The paper projects aggregate populations of six Pacific Island countries in both pre- and post-COVID19 scenarios using a Cohort Component Method for the period 2020–2060. It uses baseline indicators resembling China and Italy’s experiences and finds that Pacific countries could experience a fatality rate between 5 and 20% due to the pandemic. It also finds that most Pacific Island countries would experience higher fatalities in the older age groups, consistent with what is being witnessed in other countries around the world. The analysis also shows that while the risk escalates for people over 50 years onward in all other sample countries, in Fiji, those in the age range of 60 years or more are at higher risk. The findings also indicate that for all countries, the fatality rate for 80 years and older is about 50%. The population projections show that Fiji will be most impacted, while others will experience around 2% initial population decline. The convergence to baseline is found to be slow (except for Tonga) in most Pacific countries. Consequently, the paper suggests a cautious approach in dealing with the current crisis.

Impact of climate change on the dairy production in Fiji and the Pacific Island Countries and Territories: an insight for adaptation planning

“…Additionally, Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs) have variable and unique geographical distributions and face similar challenges such as recurrent natural disasters, limited availability of fertile land, susceptibility to biosecurity threats, small economies, overreliance on tourism and changes in global markets, and small human and livestock populations [2,3]. Furthermore, human population in PICTs is predicted to increase in several countries [4][5][6]. This will result in rapid expansion of the agricultural subsectors [7].…”

Why does currency denomination in external liabilities of small island developing states matter? Evidence from Fiji

“…A small population impacts the scalability of the economy and limits economic growth. A recent study (Lal et al., 2022) projects that the population of some Pacific Island countries will record negative growth, with and without accounting for the impact of COVID‐19, due to influential population variants such as fertility, mortality and net migration. Additionally, there are other challenges such as high dependence on foreign aid and grants including remittances, foreign direct investment, trade capacity constraints and lack of adequate resources and technology (Chand et al., 2020).…”