Projecting the Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update: Spring 2022

“…The continuation of China's zero-CoViD policies in the face of the omicron variant will hurt economic activity in China and have negative spillovers onto the rest of the region. To quantify the zero-CoViD policy shock, first, private consumption shocks that hit China during the first wave (2020Q1-2020Q2) are extracted from the oEM following Guenette and Yamazaki (2021). These shocks represent exogenous disturbances to private consumption unrelated to the model's predicted evolution of macroeconomic fundamentals.…”