2018
DOI: 10.1101/323915
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Projecting the end of the Zika virus epidemic in Latin America: a modelling analysis

Abstract: Background Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in Latin America & the Caribbean (LAC) region in 2013, and has had serious implications for population health in the region. In 2016, the World Health Organization declared the ZIKV outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern following a cluster of associated neurological disorders and neonatal malformations. In 2017, Zika cases declined, but future incidence in LAC remains uncertain due to gaps in our understanding, considerable variation in surveillanc… Show more

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Cited by 7 publications
(13 citation statements)
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“…22 , 26 , 34 , 35 Additionally, they aim to identify the geographical origins of virus spread and epidemic history using phylogeographic methods. 3 , 30–32 Predictive studies can either be stochastic or deterministic and may aim to estimate Zika incidence, 14 , 24 , 36 importation of cases, 11 , 12 , 14 distribution of risk 18 , 21 , 37–39 and transmission potential. 15 , 23 Both predictive and causal-inference models can be applied retrospectively to assess disease spread, which is the main application identified among the studies we reviewed.…”
Section: Model Aim and Applicationmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…22 , 26 , 34 , 35 Additionally, they aim to identify the geographical origins of virus spread and epidemic history using phylogeographic methods. 3 , 30–32 Predictive studies can either be stochastic or deterministic and may aim to estimate Zika incidence, 14 , 24 , 36 importation of cases, 11 , 12 , 14 distribution of risk 18 , 21 , 37–39 and transmission potential. 15 , 23 Both predictive and causal-inference models can be applied retrospectively to assess disease spread, which is the main application identified among the studies we reviewed.…”
Section: Model Aim and Applicationmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The geographic spread of ZIKV has been assessed extensively at the country and local level, with time intervals ranging from weekly to monthly (Figure 2 ). In addition to conducting analysis at the global level, 9 , 13 , 18 , 21 , 38 , 40 studies have focused on the Latin American and Caribbean region, 20 , 28–30 , 33 , 36 , 41 Africa and Asia-Pacific, Oceania, Europe 12 , 23 and on specific countries such as the USA, 11 , 15 , 27 , 31 Colombia, 16 , 19 , 34 , 42 Brazil 3 , 10 , 37 , 43 and Singapore. 22 , 44 Multi-scale analysis 29 , 44 and models that integrate data at different temporal and spatial scales 27 , 40 , 43 can help to infer risk factors or make accurate predictions on geographic spread.…”
Section: Spatial and Temporal Scalementioning
confidence: 99%
“…These regions typically exhibit highly intermittent seasonal epidemics, lasting one to three years with long periods of no, or low, reported cases in between, and low mean reproductive numbers (the number of secondary cases arising from each primary case in a completely susceptible population, R0) (5,(8)(9)(10). Several proposed explanations include the depletion of susceptible individuals following initial epidemics (11) and the time required for their replenishment via population growth (12), inter-annual variation in climate (13)(14)(15)(16)(17), and antigenic interactions between strains of different serotypes (18)(19)(20)(21). These temporal patterns contrast with the recurrent seasonal outbreaks observed in childhood diseases with high reproductive numbers, whose extensive study has provided the basis for our theoretical understanding of SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) dynamics in infections that confer lifelong or lasting immune protection (22)(23)(24)(25)(26)(27)(28)(29).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Statistical models of dengue transmission that take into account climate dependencies can be used to make short-term re-emergence forecasts on the order of 4 months (30) or 16 weeks (15). Many epidemiological models that predict the reemergence of arboviruses such as Zika (11,31) on longer time-scales of a year (11) or several decades (31) rely however on compartmental formulations such as SIR-type approaches (11) or Ross-McDonald equations that explicitly incorporate vector transmission (31). Both formulations assume transmission between any two individuals in the population ('well-mixed' conditions), typically at aggregated spatial scales.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…However, the brief nature of the 2015-2016 outbreaks is making wide-scale testing of the new vaccines difficult and some research/development programmes have already been curtailed [18,19]. Even if an effective vaccine against ZIKV manages to reach the market in the near future, many questions remain to be answered.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%