Projecting the Global Potential Distribution of <i>Cydia pomonella</i> (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) Under Historical and RCP4.5 Climate Scenarios

Guo, Siwei; Ge, Xuezhen; Ya, Zou; Zhou, Yuting; Wang, Tao; Zong, Shixiang

doi:10.1093/jisesa/ieab024

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…This is consistent with the open science movement's definition, which encourages data reuse for further research and decision-making (Allen and Mehler, 2019). As a result, some studies have used historical species data to estimate invasion risk areas (Jiang et al, 2018;Kraemer et al, 2019;Guo et al, 2021;Zhou et al, 2021;Aidoo et al, 2022a,b). The model outputs from such studies have been utilized in developing surveillance, monitoring, and preventive measures against invasive pests (Hao et al, 2022).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 61%

The Impact of Climate Change on Potential Invasion Risk of Oryctes monoceros Worldwide

Aidoo¹,

Hao

Ding

et al. 2022

Front. Ecol. Evol.

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As a significant threat to agriculture, pests have caused a great disservice to crop production and food security. Understanding the mechanisms of pests’ outbreaks and invasion is critical in giving sound suggestions on their control and prevention strategies. The African rhinoceros beetle, Oryctes monoceros (Olivier), as the most damaging pest of palms, banana, sugarcane, and pineapple, severely threatens their production due to its ability to kill both young and matured hosts. Analyzing the effect of climate change on major parameters of O. monoceros life history has been an important issue recently, given its sensitivity to thermal conditions. However, information on how climate change alters geographical distribution of O. monoceros is poorly understood. By combining environmental variables and occurrence records, we were able to assess environmental risk factors for O. monoceros and create risk maps for the pest using the Boosted Regression Tree model. Our results significance of environmental variables showed that the annual temperature variation (39.45%), seasonality of temperature (23.00%), the isothermality (18.76%), precipitation of the hottest quarter months (6.07%), average variation of day time temperature (3.27%), were relatively important environmental factors that affected the distribution O. monoceros. We also found that the projected potential distributions of the pest’s habitats in all future global warming scenarios exceeded its present known distribution. The model predicts that habitat suitability for O. monoceros is predominantly concentrated along Africa’s west and east coastlines, Asia’s south coasts, South America’s north and east coasts, and a few locations spread over North America’s southern coasts and coastal regions. These outputs provide a solid theoretical foundation for O. monoceros risk evaluations and control.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 61%

The Impact of Climate Change on Potential Invasion Risk of Oryctes monoceros Worldwide

Aidoo¹,

Hao

Ding

et al. 2022

Front. Ecol. Evol.

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“…Thus, the MFF is likely to persist only in areas with irrigated crops or adequate soil moisture [ 24 ]. In order to maximize the fit of our predictions to the actual distribution of the MFF, the scenario of 1.5 mm day −1 of summer irrigation [ 25 ] from CLIMEX was applied.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting the Global Potential Geographical Distribution of Ceratitis capitata (Diptera: Tephritidae) under Current and Future Climates

Rao,

Zhang,

Zhao

et al. 2024

Biology

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The Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann), which is native to tropical Africa, has invaded more than 100 countries and constitutes a risk to the citrus sector. Studying its potential geographical distribution (PGD) in the context of global climate change is important for prevention and control efforts worldwide. Therefore, we used the CLIMEX model to project and assess the risk of global invasion by C. capitata under current (1981–2010) and future (2040–2059) climates. In the prevailing climatic conditions, the area of PGD for C. capitata was approximately 664.8 × 105 km2 and was concentrated in South America, southern Africa, southern North America, eastern Asia, and southern Europe. Under future climate conditions, the area of PGD for C. capitata is projected to decrease to approximately 544.1 × 105 km2 and shift to higher latitudes. Cold stress was shown to affect distribution at high latitudes, and heat stress was the main factor affecting distribution under current and future climates. According to the predicted results, countries with highly suitable habitats for C. capitata that have not yet been invaded, such as China, Myanmar, and Vietnam, must strengthen quarantine measures to prevent the introduction of this pest.

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“…Further, the distribution of the codling moth in various continents across the globe was predicted by different models like CLIMEX 16 – 18 and MaxEnt 17 , 19 by multiple researchers, and it was seen the codling moth has a worldwide distribution, particularly in apple-growing regions except Antarctica 20 . In Asia, the majority of areas that are favorable for codling moth infestation fall in Central and Eastern zone 20 , particularly, the apple-growing regions of China, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, India, Iran, Pakistan, and Kazakhstan, are most suitable for its development 20 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Morphomolecular characterization of invasive fruit borer infesting apple

Aziz,

Ahad,

Shah

et al. 2024

Sci Rep

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Apple, a vital fruit crop worldwide and a major crop grown in northern parts of India, acts as a backbone for the survival and livelihood of the farming community. However, it is prone to severe damage from insect pests and diseases. In the past few years, due to erratic weather patterns, there has been an alarmingly increased infestation of different insect pests, both invasive and non-invasive, resulting in substantial economic losses to this industry. One similar case was seen in the Himalayan region of India, where the apple crop in Karewas was heavily damaged by some invasive fruit borer, feeding on pulp and making galleries to reach the seed locules, thereby destroying the seed material. To ascertain the true identity of this pest, a study based on morpho-molecular characterization of this pest was carried out in the Faculty of Agriculture, Wadura, SKUAST Kashmir, India, during the years 2021 and 2022. The invasive fruit samples were collected from apple orchards at different locations (experimental sites) in North India by installing delta sticky traps @ 5 traps/ha for moth collection. The fruit-boring larvae and pupa were also collected and reared in confined chambers of the laboratory with controlled temperature and humidity. All the laboratory investigations were conducted at the Division of Entomology, FoA, Wadura, SKUAST Kashmir. During the investigation, it was confirmed that the invasive borer is a codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.), a member of the family Tortricidae, order Lepidoptera, which was earlier having quarantine importance in India, as it was only present in the Ladakh region of India. From the phylogenetic analysis of sample sequences, the species of codling moth present at all experimental sites was more identical to the codling moth sequence from Leh (the northernmost arid region), India. Further, the study of life cycle and voltinism revealed that codling moth completes three generations per year in Kashmir, with a single cycle lasting up to 2.5 months. However, the timing of various generations varies, depending on prevailing weather conditions at specific locations and times. The number of generations completed by codling moth in Kashmir conditions during apple growing season was three full and a half overwintering generations. The study of the life cycle of this important pest was necessary to know the weak link for its effective management and to prevent the economic loss in apple fruit.

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Projecting the Global Potential Distribution of Cydia pomonella (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) Under Historical and RCP4.5 Climate Scenarios

Cited by 6 publications

References 30 publications

The Impact of Climate Change on Potential Invasion Risk of Oryctes monoceros Worldwide

The Impact of Climate Change on Potential Invasion Risk of Oryctes monoceros Worldwide

Projecting the Global Potential Geographical Distribution of Ceratitis capitata (Diptera: Tephritidae) under Current and Future Climates

Morphomolecular characterization of invasive fruit borer infesting apple

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