Projecting the Health and Economic Burden of Cardiovascular Disease Among People with Type 2 Diabetes, 2022–2031

Abstract

ObjectiveThe aim was to project the health and economic outcomes of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among people with type 2 diabetes from Australian public healthcare and societal perspectives over the next decade. Methods A dynamic multistate model with yearly cycles was developed to project cardiovascular events among Australians with type 2 diabetes aged 40-89 years from 2022 to 2031. CVD risk (myocardial infarction [MI] and stroke) in the type 2 diabetes population was estimated using the 2013 pooled cohort equation, and recurrent cardiovascular event rates in the type 2 diabetes with established CVD population were obtained from the global Reduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health (REACH) registry. Costs and utilities were derived from published sources. Outcomes included fatal and non-fatal MI and stroke, years of life lived, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), total healthcare costs, and total productivity losses. The annual discount rate was 5%, applied to outcomes and costs.

Societal health and economic burden of cardiovascular diseases in the population with type 2 diabetes in Qatar. A 10‐year forecasting model

“…34 However, in line with Australian trends, morbidity is the highest driver of productivity loss, followed by early mortality. In addition, and in contrast to the present study, the individuals that were included in the 2013 PCE-ASCVD equation, to estimate the CVD risk for the T2D without CVD population, are over 48 000 in the current Qatari study, compared with 313 people only in the Australian study, 6 which further enhances the first-ever estimates generated from PCE-ASCVD in the MENA region.…”

“…To date, the only study that used a dynamic modelling to estimate the burden of CVD with T2D, was undertaken by our group, for a 2022-2031 forecast in Australia. 6 However, this study is not representative of the Qatari setting. In this study, we sought to forecast the health and economic burden of CVD in T2D in the Qatar context at the population level over the next decade, 2023-2032, using the dynamic modelling technique.…”

“…The authors developed the model, explored assumptions and identified appropriate data sources following a review of the relevant literature including key existing studies in similar disease areas. 6,7 The structure of the model is depicted in Figure 1. The model was built in Microsoft Excel 2016 (Microsoft Corporation) and adapted the Qatari public health care and societal perspective.…”

“…because of the dynamic nature of the model), and in line with previous studies, all outcomes were reported for the total population, not per person. 6,7,9 The model comprises a 10-year time horizon (from 2023 to 2032) and includes Qatari citizens and residents with T2D, aged 40-79 years, stratified according to age and sex. 10 The model includes three health states: 'Alive with T2D and pre-CVD' health state, 'Alive with T2D and post-CVD' health state and the 'Dead' state (Figure 1).…”

“…Our model findings were validated against the results reported by local and international references. 6,15,29 The CHEERS checklist is presented in Table S20.…”