Projecting the Health Care Workforce Needed in the US

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to disrupt the nation's health care workforce. The Biden administration has responded by investing $1.5 billion from the American Rescue Act in programs and initiatives addressing deficits in the size, composition, and distribution of the current and future health care workforce, including a 27% increase in scholarship and loan repayment awards for primary care clinicians, dentists, nurses, and behavioral health professionals. 1 While a welcome boost to expand and diversify the health care workforce, this funding should also target improvements in workforce forecasting models. Rigorous workforce modeling will allow for better evidence-based workforce policy in the future and is a logical complement to the funds allocated to the new Center for Disease Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics. In addition, while prior workforce models have focused on physicians, we believe modeling should also encompass the other health care professions targeted for investment.

The changing employment of physicians, nurse practitioners, and physician associates/assistants

“…Their flexibility and usefulness were illuminated when state workforce barriers such as licensure were lifted during the pandemic (Frogner, 2022). To better assimilate and model such information about ever-changing medical care, the national health care workforce commission was created but is still unfunded and not permitted to meet (Buntin et al, 2022). Nurse practitioners' and PAs' specific services should be delineated in role descriptions, as is now done for the specific service roles of physicians and surgeons.…”

“…Periodically, health care system changes affect the supply and demand of many medical workers, and new information is needed on employment types and settings (Minemayer, 2020). Reports about health care professional shortages have become a topic of increasing interest to professional associations and health policy analysts (Buntin et al, 2022; IHS Markit, 2021). The awareness of shortages of medical personnel began around the new millennium and grew (Thompson, 2022).…”

“…Medical and surgical providers now fall into three main types: physicians, NPs, and physician associates/assistants (PAs; Bureau of Labor Statistics [BLS], 2021). Knowing the types of employment industries and where growth is taking place informs policymakers and human resource managers about the available supply of medical personnel (Buntin et al, 2022).…”

The changing employment of physicians, NPs, and PAs

“…1 Reports about healthcare professional shortages have become a topic of increasing interest to professional associations and health policy analysts. 2,3 The awareness of shortages of medical personnel began around the new millennium and grew. 4 As the gap widened between the supply of physicians and the demand for more healthcare services, a shift…”

“…Periodically, healthcare system changes affect the supply and demand of many medical workers, and new information is needed on employment types and settings 1. Reports about healthcare professional shortages have become a topic of increasing interest to professional associations and health policy analysts 2,3. The awareness of shortages of medical personnel began around the new millennium and grew 4.…”