Projecting the impact of a two-dose COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Ontario, Canada

Vilches, Thomas N.; Zhang, Kevin; Exan, Robert Van; Langley, Joanne M.; Moghadas, Seyed M.

doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.03.058

Cited by 33 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…Our study's findings are also consistent with a few other agent-based simulation models that examined the impact of vaccination on pandemic control [20,21]. One recent study focused on the pandemic control in the Ontario region in Canada and found that relaxing NPIs and lockdown restrictions early can lead to delayed controllable spread or a second wave of infections [20]. Similarly, we found that dynamic adherence to NPIs was associated with lower infection reduction compared to steady rates of NPI adherence.…”

Section: Plos Onesupporting

confidence: 88%

The impact of vaccination to control COVID-19 burden in the United States: A simulation modeling approach

et al. 2021

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Introduction Vaccination programs aim to control the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the relative impacts of vaccine coverage, effectiveness, and capacity in the context of nonpharmaceutical interventions such as mask use and physical distancing on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 are unclear. Our objective was to examine the impact of vaccination on the control of SARS-CoV-2 using our previously developed agent-based simulation model. Methods We applied our agent-based model to replicate COVID-19-related events in 1) Dane County, Wisconsin; 2) Milwaukee metropolitan area, Wisconsin; 3) New York City (NYC). We evaluated the impact of vaccination considering the proportion of the population vaccinated, probability that a vaccinated individual gains immunity, vaccination capacity, and adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions. We estimated the timing of pandemic control, defined as the date after which only a small number of new cases occur. Results The timing of pandemic control depends highly on vaccination coverage, effectiveness, and adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions. In Dane County and Milwaukee, if 50% of the population is vaccinated with a daily vaccination capacity of 0.25% of the population, vaccine effectiveness of 90%, and the adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions is 60%, controlled spread could be achieved by June 2021 versus October 2021 in Dane County and November 2021 in Milwaukee without vaccine. Discussion In controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the impact of vaccination varies widely depending not only on effectiveness and coverage, but also concurrent adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions.

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Section: Plos Onesupporting

confidence: 88%

The impact of vaccination to control COVID-19 burden in the United States: A simulation modeling approach

et al. 2021

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“…The results show that an increase in the percentage of the vaccinated population slows down the spread of new infections. An accelerated vaccine rollout and adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions until adequate vaccination coverage are critical in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic [8] . Initially, people received the COVID-19 vaccination campaign with hesitancy due to various concerns [9] , and now there is a shortage of supply.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Nevertheless, the viral pandemic affected human life and the global economy in an adverse manner [7] . The relentless efforts of the scientific community in developing vaccines for the disease is finally a success and vaccination programs are taking place all over the world [8] , [9] .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A model based on cellular automata for investigating the impact of lockdown, migration and vaccination on COVID-19 dynamics

Jithesh

2021

Computer Methods and Programs in Biomedicine

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B ackground and Objective COVID-19 pandemic continues unabated due to the rapid spread of new mutant strains of the virus. Decentralized cluster containment is an efficient approach to manage the pandemic in the long term, without straining the healthcare system and economy. In this study, the objective is to forecast the peak and duration of COVID-19 spread in a cluster under different conditions, using a probabilistic cellular automata configuration designed to include the observed characteristics of the pandemic with appropriate neighbourhood schemes and transition rules. M ethods The cellular automata, initially configured to have only susceptible and exposed states, enlarges and evolves in discrete time steps to different infection states of the COVID-19 pandemic. The transition rules take into account the probability and proximity of contact between infected hosts and susceptible individuals. A transmittable and transition neighbourhoods are defined to identify the most probable individuals infected from a single host in a time step. R esults The model with novel neighbourhood schemes and transition rules reproduce the macroscopic behaviour of infection and recovery observed in pandemics. The temporal evolution of the pandemic trajectory is sensitive to lattice size, range, latent and recovery periods but has constraints in capturing the changes in the infectious period. A study of lockdown and migration scenarios shows strict social isolation is crucial in controlling the pandemic. The simulations also indicate that earlier vaccination with a higher capacity and rate is essential to mitigate the pandemic. A comparison of simulated and actual data shows a good match. C onclusions The study concludes that social isolation during movement and interaction of people can limit the spread of new infections. Vaccinating a large proportion of the population reduces new cases in subsequent waves of the pandemic. The model and algorithm with real-world data as input can quickly forecast the trajectory of the pandemic, for effective response in cluster containment.

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“…Infection and Drug Resistance 2021:14 vaccine dose is efficacious during the first 90 days, providing further evidence for current policy. 23 On February 18 2021, the AIFA approved the use of the vaccine for people 65 years and older and mainly in countries with circulating viral variants. 24…”

Section: Dovepressmentioning

confidence: 99%

Overview of the Main Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines: Mechanism of Action, Efficacy and Safety

Mascellino¹,

Timoteo²,

Angelis³

et al. 2021

IDR

219

246

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This review takes into consideration the principal vaccines developed against the SARS-CoV-2 in this unprecedented period of Covid-19 pandemic. We evaluated the mechanism of action of each vaccine as well as the efficacy, the safety and the storage temperature. In addition, the problem of the dose units, the vaccinal strategy, the activity of alternative compounds such as the monoclonal antibodies and especially the issue of the virus variants were also described in detail. Four vaccines are currently used in Italy: Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA BNT162b2 (Comirnaty) (USA), Moderna mRNA 1273 (USA), Astra-Zeneca ChAdOx1-S (recombinant) viral vector adenovirus belonging to Oxford (UK) and Pomezia (Italy), Janssen (two recombinant viral vector adenoviruses) belonging to Johnson & Johnson (USA). The efficacy of Pfizer and Moderna for preventing disease or severe disease results 95-87.5% and 94.5-100%, respectively. The efficacy of Astra-Zeneca and Janssen is about 70% and 65%, respectively; in the case of Janssen, it depends on the geographical area ranging from 72% to 57%. The problem of the administrated doses (one dose, two doses from the same vaccine or from different vaccines, half dose) is also discussed. The vaccination strategy based on the age group remains the simplest, most transparent and fair criterion. This strategy is also based on accelerating the administration of the vaccines, so that as many subjects as possible can be vaccinated quickly for achieving the "herd immunity". The monoclonal antibodies appeared to be a valid solution for the treatment of Covid-19 disease. Two antibodies (bamlanivimab and etesevimab) have just been approved by the FDA. They could also be used for the infection by virus variants which represent a big problem due to their higher transmissibility and virulence and to their lower response to the vaccines.

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Projecting the impact of a two-dose COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Ontario, Canada

Cited by 33 publications

References 37 publications

The impact of vaccination to control COVID-19 burden in the United States: A simulation modeling approach

The impact of vaccination to control COVID-19 burden in the United States: A simulation modeling approach

A model based on cellular automata for investigating the impact of lockdown, migration and vaccination on COVID-19 dynamics

Overview of the Main Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines: Mechanism of Action, Efficacy and Safety

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