2020
DOI: 10.3102/0013189x20965918
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Projecting the Potential Impact of COVID-19 School Closures on Academic Achievement

Abstract: As the COVID-19 pandemic upended the 2019–2020 school year, education systems scrambled to meet the needs of students and families with little available data on how school closures may impact learning. In this study, we produced a series of projections of COVID-19-related learning loss based on (a) estimates from absenteeism literature and (b) analyses of summer learning patterns of 5 million students. Under our projections, returning students are expected to start fall 2020 with approximately 63 to 68% of the… Show more

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Cited by 866 publications
(770 citation statements)
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References 43 publications
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“…Along with differences in home environments and access to technology and learning resources, different groups’ orientations towards education are likely to contribute to a reduction in academic ability over the summer (often known as “summer learning loss”), which tends to increase the socioeconomic gap in academic attainment (Downey & Hippel, 1998; Meyer, Yao, & Meissel, 2020; Quinn, Cooc, McIntyre, & Gomez, 2016; von Hippel, Workman, & Downey, 2018). They are also likely to be a major driver of any increase in educational inequality that results from the school closures due to the COVID‐19 pandemic, so much so that, while most students are expected to suffer learning loss because of the school closures, the most advantaged may actually gain (Francis, 2020; Kuhfeld & Tarasawa, 2020).…”
Section: The Identities In Context Model: Linking Contextual Variatiomentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Along with differences in home environments and access to technology and learning resources, different groups’ orientations towards education are likely to contribute to a reduction in academic ability over the summer (often known as “summer learning loss”), which tends to increase the socioeconomic gap in academic attainment (Downey & Hippel, 1998; Meyer, Yao, & Meissel, 2020; Quinn, Cooc, McIntyre, & Gomez, 2016; von Hippel, Workman, & Downey, 2018). They are also likely to be a major driver of any increase in educational inequality that results from the school closures due to the COVID‐19 pandemic, so much so that, while most students are expected to suffer learning loss because of the school closures, the most advantaged may actually gain (Francis, 2020; Kuhfeld & Tarasawa, 2020).…”
Section: The Identities In Context Model: Linking Contextual Variatiomentioning
confidence: 99%
“…As cases and deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Europe rose sharply in late March, most European countries implemented strict mitigation policies, including closure of nonessential businesses and mandatory stay-at-home orders. These policies were largely successful at curbing transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 ( 1 ), but they came with social and economic costs, including increases in unemployment, interrupted education, social isolation, and related psychosocial outcomes ( 2 , 3 ). A better understanding of when and how these policies were effective is needed.…”
mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The stakes are high considering the impact of past school closures resulting from disease (Smith, 2020), natural disasters, war (Barber, 2008). Kuhfeld et al (2020) predict that COVID-19-induced school closures will generate significant learning losses, with the largest negative effects concentrated among low-achieving students. Research on school closures as a result of disease also highlight the possibility of permanent damage to education systems.…”
Section: Context Mattersmentioning
confidence: 99%