Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period

Abstract

It is urgent to understand the future of severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. We used estimates of seasonality, immunity, and cross-immunity for human coronavirus OC43 (HCoV-OC43) and HCoV-HKU1 using time-series data from the United States to inform a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We projected that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the initial, most severe pandemic wave. Absent other interventions, a key metric for the success of social distancing is whether critical care capacities are exceeded. To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022. Additional interventions, including expanded critical care capacity and an effective therapeutic, would improve the success of intermittent distancing and hasten the acquisition of herd immunity. Longitudinal serological studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained because a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.

Sequencing identifies multiple early introductions of SARS-CoV-2 to the New York City Region

“…For example, sampling from the NY region demonstrates a much broader diversity of transmission chains than initially uncovered in Seattle 9 . Retrospective analysis could illuminate the degree of undetected community spreading on a per-region basis, to assess the efficacy of policy and behavioral changes, and prospectively to inform proactive management of an ongoing outbreak 15 . Two other groups have reported sequencing surveillance of nearby or overlapping regions 16,17 , and monitoring of a hospital system could be complemented by broader population studies 18 .…”

Continuing medical education during a pandemic: an academic institution’s experience

“…This likely helps with individual coping mechanisms. This pandemic is projected to last until the end of the year 13 . We should adapt CME to a 'new normal' to keep our STs up to date with their core clinical competencies and equipped to deal with the full spectrum of clinical pathology that will no doubt continue now and tomorrow.…”

Infection control in dental health care during and after the SARS‐CoV‐2 outbreak

“…Given this uncertainty, the duty of care towards patients should be balanced with both the safety of DHCWs and patients, as well as the limited resources of both time and materials (especially respirators) (Kampf, Scheithauer, et al, 2020) When gradually scaling down additional preventive measures, risks and feasibility should be carefully balanced. The pandemic, possibly followed by postpandemic outbreaks, will likely remain present for a prolonged period of time (Kissler, Tedijanto, Goldstein, Grad, & Lipsitch, 2020). Since it is impossible to perform social distancing in dental health care, it is required to continuously consider which precautions are needed, possibly for the coming years.…”